Modeling and forecasting of stock index volatility with APARCH models under ordered restriction

This article examines volatility models for modeling and forecasting the Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) daily stock index returns, including the autoregressive moving average, the Taylor and Schwert generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle GARCH and asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH) with the following conditional distributions: normal, Student's t and skewed Student's t‐distributions. In addition, we undertake unit root (augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron) tests, co‐integration test and error correction model. We study the stationary APARCH (p) model with parameters, and the uniform convergence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality are prove under simple ordered restriction. In fitting these models to S&P 500 daily stock index return data over the period 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2012, we found that the APARCH model using a skewed Student's t‐distribution is the most effective and successful for modeling and forecasting the daily stock index returns series. The results of this study would be of great value to policy makers and investors in managing risk in stock markets trading.     

What firms know

The present paper contributes to the literature on legal origins by showing that the ease with which information on rules and regulations is available to firms is much better in common law compared with civil law countries.     

Methods of ranking economics journals

This paper reviews and critiques some popular methods of ranking economics journals, compares results of some methods, and suggests new uses of two old methods. International economics journals are ranked and used to provide a vehicle for the analyses. Journal citations over a five-year period provide the data input for the analysis. This study illustrates the significance of the method used in how journals are ranked. The Bradley-Terry model is used to estimate the odds ratios one journal will cite another. The model is also discussed as a possible tool for finding the boundary between fields and field journals. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-Sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference in Quebec City, Canada, October 16–19, 2003.     

Project appraisal and income distribution

In spite of much lip service being paid to the equity and employment objectives, these objectives continue to be sacrified to the objective of increasing aggregate income. The first part of this paper criticizes three of the most commonly accepted justifications of the neglect of income distribution. The second part discusses the more recent attempt of incorporating income distribution weights in social cost-benefit analysis. It is argued that the result of this attempt has been satisfying neither to science nor to conscience. Blame is laid on the persistent tendency to aggregate costs and benifits accruing to highly heterogeneous social groups, as well as the tendency to replace unquantifiable phenomena by quantifiable ones.     

Strategic behavior and regulation research in accounting

This paper focuses on models of political behavior that implicitly or explicitly form the foundation for empirical economic consequences studies in accounting. The studies that have appeared adopt a single-period of single-agendum-item perspective. This paper discusses differences in rational political behavior that arise naturally in single-period versus multiperiod settings. The behavioral implications of varying configurations of available information on agents' “ preferences” are also considered. Because of the tremendously complex empirical domain being studied, examples are relied on heavily to motivate the discussion rather than engaging in a formal modeling exercise.     

Demand Analysis of Meat in Malaysia

One distinct change in Malaysians' food consumption behavior has been the preference toward meat products. Thus it is meaningful to gain insight of meat consumption patterns. As the market becomes increasingly market-led, information on current meat consumption patterns is required to assess how they are likely to change as prices and incomes change. This study attempts to provide a better understanding of demand for meat products in Malaysia. By utilizing data from Household Expenditure Survey 2004/2005, Engel curve analysis was conducted to derive income elasticities of meat products from QUAIDS model. The estimated income elasticities show that current food consumption patterns are showing signs of convergence toward a Western diet, exhibiting tendency for preference toward red meats (mutton and beef) over white meats (poultry and pork). The estimated elastic own-price elasticities indicate that Malaysian consumers are sensitive to the change in prices of the meat products, with other things remain constant.     

The Time Cost of Documents to Trade

The article shows that the number of documents required to export and import tend to increase the time cost of shipments. However, the increase in the time cost of increased documentation is much larger for countries that are relatively poor and large in size. One interpretation here is that the relatively rich countries that have more resources and the relatively small countries that rely more on trade invest more in building efficient documentation systems. Our findings suggest caution in interpreting how input-based measures, such as the number of required documents to trade, affect outcome measures.     

Measuring technical efficiency of dairy farms with imprecise data: a fuzzy data envelopment analysis approach

This article integrates fuzzy set theory in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to compute technical efficiency scores when input and output data are imprecise. The underlying assumption in conventional DEA is that input and output data are measured with precision. However, production agriculture takes place in an uncertain environment, and, in some situations, input and output data may be imprecise. We present an approach of measuring efficiency when data are known to lie within specified intervals and empirically illustrate this approach using a group of 29 dairy producers in Pennsylvania. Compared to the conventional DEA scores that are point estimates, the computed fuzzy efficiency scores are interval bound allowing the decision maker to trace the performance of a decision‐making unit at different possibility levels.