Kondratieff waves in global invention activity (1900-2008)

Our study has revealed an unusually clear K-wave pattern in the dynamics of the number of patents granted annually in the world per 1 million of the world population. In general we see rather steady increases in the number of patent grants per million during K-wave A-phases ("upswings"), and we observe its rather pronounced decreases during K-wave B-phases ("downswings"). This pattern apparently goes counter to the logic suggested by Kondratieff, Schumpeter and their followers who expected the increases in the invention activities during B-phases and their decreases during A-phases. However, this contradiction is shown to be only apparent. We suggest an explanation that accounts for the detected pattern without contradicting the essence of Kondratieff-Schumpeter theory.     

Universal basic income: A viable policy alternative?

Although the need for an efficient Roma integration policy is growing in Europe, surprisingly little robust scientific evidence regarding potential policy costs and expected benefits of alternative policy options has supported the policy design and implementation so far. The present study attempts to narrow this evidence gap and aims to shed light on long‐run economic, budgetary and fiscal effects of selected education and employment policies for the inclusion of the marginalised Roma in the EU. We employ a general equilibrium approach that allows us to assess not only the direct impact of alternative Roma integration policies but also to capture all induced feedback effects. Our simulation results suggest that although Roma integration policies would be costly for the public budget, in the medium‐to‐long run, economic, budgetary and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh short‐ to medium‐run Roma integration costs. Depending on the integration policy scenario and the analysed country, the full repayment of the integration policy investment (positive net present value) may be achieved after 7 to 9 years. In terms of the GDP, employment and earnings, the universal basic income scenario may have the highest potential impacts, particularly in the medium‐to‐long run.     

Robbing the Bank: Non-recourse Lending and Asset Prices

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We investigate the market prices of assets in fixed supply whose purchase is typically financed through non-recourse loans. The largest and most...     

Averting Regulatory Enforcement: Evidence from New Source Review

This paper explores firms' response to regulatory enforcement. New Source Review (NSR), a provision of the Clean Air Act, imposes stringent emissions limitations on significantly modified older power plants. In 1999, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sued owners of 46 plants for NSR violations. We study how electricity companies respond to both the perceived threat of future action, and the action itself. A discrete choice model estimates plants likelihood of being named in lawsuits increases with large historic emissions and investments. On the eve of the lawsuits, emissions at plants with a one standard deviation greater probability of being sued fell approximately 10%.     

Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances,Who Moves,and Who Defaults?

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Why, when, and who terminates their mortgages? The primary reasons for mortgage termination are refinancing, selling of the property, and default....     

REIT Capital Structure Choices: Preparation Matters

Sun, Titman and Twite find that capital structure risks, namely, high leverage and a high share of short‐term debt, reduced the cumulative total return of U.S. REITs in the 2007–2009 financial crisis. We find that mitigating capital structure risks ahead of the crisis by reducing leverage and extending debt maturity in 2006 was associated with a significantly higher cumulative total return 2007–2009, after controlling for the levels of those variables at the start of the financial crisis. We further identify two systematic cross‐sectional differences between those REITs that reduced capital structure risks prior to the financial crisis and those that did not: the exposure to capital structure risks and the strength of corporate governance. On balance, our findings are consistent with the interpretation of risk‐reducing adjustments to capital structure ahead of the crisis as a component of managerial skill and discipline with significant implications for firm value during the crisis.     

Structural default model with mutual obligations

In this paper we consider mutual obligations in an interconnected bank system and analyze their impact on the joint and marginal survival probabilities for individual banks. We also calculate prices of the corresponding credit default swaps and first-to-default swaps. To make the role of mutual obligations more transparent, we develop a simple structural default model with banks’ assets driven by correlated multidimensional Brownian motion with drift. We calculate closed form expressions for many quantities of interest and use them for the efficient model calibration. We demonstrate that mutual obligations have noticeable impact on the system behavior.     

On a class of diverse market models

A market model in Stochastic Portfolio Theory is a finite system of strictly positive stochastic processes. Each process represents the capitalization of a certain stock. If at any time no stock dominates almost the entire market, which means that its share of total market capitalization is not very close to one, then the market is called diverse. There are several ways to outperform diverse markets and get an arbitrage opportunity, and this makes these markets interesting. A feature of real-world markets is that stocks with smaller capitalizations have larger drift coefficients. Some models, like the volatility-stabilized model, try to capture this property, but they are not diverse. In an attempt to combine this feature with diversity, we construct a new class of market models. We find simple, easy-to-test sufficient conditions for them to be diverse and other sufficient conditions for them not to be diverse.     

The Role of Export Market Participation in the Choice of Organizational Form of Production Technology*

This paper shows that the reason for a higher capital–labour ratio, observed for exporting firms, is a higher capital intensity of their production technology. Exporters choose to use different organizational forms of their production process, in which the share of capital and intermediate inputs in the final output is higher than that of non‐exporters. The organization of the production process is part of the firm's organizational strategy, which generates within‐industry heterogeneity in factor intensities and production technologies. The results of this study indicate that the decision to export is preceded by a process of restructuring production technology, which then has the effect of increasing a firms’ productivity and in so doing prepares them for competition in the global market.     

Trade policy of a free trade agreement in the presence of foreign lobbying

This paper studies the effect of foreign lobbies on trade policy of a country which is a member of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It uses a monopolistically competitive political economy model in which the government determines external tariffs endogenously. The effect of foreign lobbying under the FTA is examined empirically using Canadian industry-level trade data that allow differentiating of lobby groups by the country of origin. The analysis suggests that the presence of foreign lobbying has a significant effect on the domestic trade policy. The heterogeneity of foreign lobbies is also important: the presence of an organized lobbying group in an FTA partner country tends to raise trade barriers while an organized lobbying group of exporters from outside of the FTA is associated with less protection.