Stock market volatility,the news,and monetary policy

The dynamic relationship linking the volatility of equity prices with “the news” and the expected path for monetary policy is investigated. Previous results that link the impact of the news about real activity to changes in current and future interest rates are employed in developing a positive link between changes in volatility and the news. Empirically, our results uncover a positive and statistically significant response of the CBOE volatility index, VIX, to unanticipated changes in employment, but not to inflation. Hence, agents' expectations for the policy response to news have an important influence on the expected volatility of stock prices. (JEL E44, E52)     

The Challenge Facing SMEs in the Eu’s New Member States

The paper considers the main threats and opportunities for SMEs in new member states, arising out of EU membership, including the implications for SMEs at the micro level. Whilst accession-related changes have important potential implications for firms of all sizes, the distinctive size-related characteristics of SMEs affect their ability to identify, cope with and respond to new sources of threat and opportunity. These potential impacts face new member countries at a relatively early stage in the development of market-based systems, which still contain many deficiencies (particularly in institutional terms) and a SME sector with many characteristics that reflect its fledgling status.     

Memory recall errors in retrospective surveys: A reverse record check study

This paper reports on a study to compare self-reports during an interview with staff who attended a University health centre in Turkey, with the records of visits to the same health centre over the previous 12 months. Design of the study reflects the effects of importance of the event, duration since the event, frequency of the occurrence of the event, measurement scale of the event, and bounded and unbounded recalling. In order to assess the extent of recall error, responses to retrospective questions on health centre visits are compared with administrative records. Statistical models are proposed for short and long term human memory recall error effects on responses.     

The causal relation between government revenue and spending: Evidence from Egypt and Jordan

In investigating the causal relation between government revenue and spending, our empirical results support the tax-and-spend hypothesis for Egypt and the fiscal synchronization hypothesis for Jordan. Breaking away from these historical trends is essential for both countries to eliminate the budget deficit and therefore ensure the availability of domestic saving for private investment. To cope with unemployment and poverty, continuing privatization is recommended for both countries to improve productivity and efficiency in the domestic economy. Privatization should lead to higher domestic saving and investment and at the same time eliminate the budget deficit by enhancing revenue and curbing spending. (JEL H62, H63)     

Nash-equilibria in a heterogeneous oligopoly with fuzzy information

We consider a model of an oligopolistic market with heterogeneous firms and products where neither the cost nor the demand functions are common knowledge. Instead, each firm only has some vague ideas about the price strategies adopted by its competitors which is modelled by a fuzzy set. In analogy to the notion of an "equilibrium of actions and beliefs" we define and characterize a generalized Nash-equilibrium and show its existence under general conditions. Furthermore, the impact of the fuzzy information on the equilibrium outcome is analyzed by means of a comparative static analysis within a particular model framework.Received: 28 May 2002, Accepted: 25 December 2002, JEL Classification: D43, D80, L13We wish to thank Bernhard F. Arnold, the editor Murat Sertel , and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Of course, we are responsible for all remaining errors.     

A note on the determination of A-optimal type block designs under fixed and mixed effects models

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a selected set of contrasts between v treatments using a block design consisting of b blocks of size k. Traditionally, the construction of A-optimal block designs for such situations has been carried out assuming a fixed effects model. In this paper, we show that A-optimal designs constructed under a fixed effects model are robust in the sense that these designs have maximal minimal efficiency when considered among all available designs and under all possible mixed effects models. AMS 1991 subject classifications: Primary 62K05; Secondary 62K10     

Duration dependence testing for speculative bubbles

Prior research has employed a number of methods to test for speculative bubbles in asset prices, including a method based on the concept of duration dependence. This study explores whether duration dependence tests for speculative bubbles are sensitive to specification decisions. Our results question the efficacy of using measures of duration dependence to test for speculative bubbles. In particular, we find that evidence of duration dependence is sensitive to the method of correcting for discrete observation of continuous duration, the use of value-weighted versus equally weighted portfolios, and the use of monthly versus weekly runs of abnormal returns. (JEL C41, G12)     

Gaussian process regression for pricing variable annuities with stochastic volatility and interest rate

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we investigate value and Greeks computation of a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) variable annuity, when both stochastic volatility...     

电力施工企业工程项目全过程成本管控策略

在电网体制改革以及国家政策调整的双重背景下,电力建设市场已经逐渐打破以往的格局,这使电力施工企业不得不参与越来越激烈的市场竞争.但是,由于电力施工企业长期采用粗放的管理模式,人员、材料、机械等各个方面的成本均相对较高,导致其在市场竞争中缺乏优势.对于市场经济来说,企业要想获取竞争优势,主要依靠产品功能和成本两个方面,电力施工企业的产品具有显著的同质性特征,所以成本控制成为电力施工企业提升自身竞争力的主要因素.因此,为了提升电力施工企业的市场竞争力,必须根据实际情况有效落实并不断强化成本管控工作.     

浅谈农业科研院所的内部控制

农业科研院所在我国经济和社会发展中发挥着重要作用,建立并完善农业科研院所的内部控制系统,对内部资源的合理配置及推进农业科研工作的有序运行具有重要意义.文章针对农业科研院所的特点,从加强内部控制意识、完善内部控制体系、加深业务和财务融合、提高信息化程度等方面分析了内部控制存在的问题及对策.