Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization

The study develops an index of globalization covering its three main dimensions: economic integration, social integration, and political integration. Using panel data for 123 countries in 1970–2000 it is analysed empirically whether the overall index of globalization as well as sub-indexes constructed to measure the single dimensions affect economic growth. As the results show, globalization indeed promotes growth. The dimensions most robustly related with growth refer to actual economic flows and restrictions in developed countries. Although less robustly, information flows also promote growth whereas political integration has no effect.     

Ageing, labour markets and well-being

This keynote speech draws three broad lessons to turn the challenges of population ageing into chances: Lesson number one is that the quantity effects of adding more labour into our ageing economies are very large. To exploit them, one has to use the entire spectrum of labour market policies: earlier labour market entry, later retirement age, higher female labour force participation, and lower unemployment. Lesson number two is that there is a positive and enforcing effect of pension reform. A pension regime that alleviates the tax burden of the younger generation creates higher productive capacity. The third lesson is on behavioural effects. Some strengthen reform but they are dominated by opposition effects, such as taking advantage of loopholes, withdrawal of labour supply, or simple within-household substitution. Negative behavioural effects can be minimised by informing people better about the chances and challenges of population ageing, and by de-mystifying false beliefs about ageing.     

Forecasting exchange rates: Non-linear adjustment and time-varying equilibrium

By linking two main strands of equilibrium exchange rate research, this paper models and forecasts exchange rate movements around a time-varying equilibrium using both linear and non-linear techniques. Our results support evidence of linear and non-linear (ESTR) stationary behaviour around a time-varying equilibrium, particularly when using a trade based price index. The latter results are largely robust across a break due to the Plaza Accord. Forecasts of both the equilibrium deviations and exchange rates themselves are largely supportive of the ESTR model over several alternatives. This is notably so across most measures with respect to the equilibrium deviations and over the sign based measures for the exchange rate forecasts. Overall, our results suggest that short-run changes in exchange rates are forecastable when allowing for a time-varying equilibrium rate and using an appropriate price index. Such a result has important implications for researchers, policy-makers and goods and financial market participants. For example, policy-makers need to be cognisant of a changing equilibrium level and not necessarily conduct policy in such a manner as to restore a previous equilibrium. Similarly, those engaged in hedging need to be aware that equilibrium rates are time varying but, beneficially, movements around equilibrium appear predictable.     

Economics and Design of Capacity Markets for the Power Sector

Capacity markets are a means to assure resource adequacy. The need for a capacity market stems from several market failures the most prominent of which is the absence of a robust demand-side. Limited demand response makes market clearing problematic in times of scarcity. We present the economic motivation for a capacity market, present one specific market design that utilizes the best design features from various resource adequacy approaches analyzed in the literature, and we discuss other instruments to deal with the problems. We then discuss the suitability of the market for Europe and Germany in particular.     

PV adoption: the role of distribution tariffs under net metering

Journal of Regulatory Economics - The deployment of decentralized productions units (DPU) like rooftop solar panels is a major challenge for a transition towards greener energy sources. Under a net...     

Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2011

Die Wirtschaft hat sich 2010 von der tiefsten Krise der Nachkriegsgeschichte erholt. Die Industriebranchen haben dabei schon wieder fast das Vorkrisenniveau erreicht. Die Branchenvertreter blicken trotz verschiedener Unsicherheitsfaktoren optimistisch auf das Jahr 2011.     

Limits to the equilibrating capabilities of market systems

Serious macroproblems are not a simple result of inflexibilities of prices. Standard economic theory does not help our understanding of the role of money and of monetary institutions in disturbed states of the economy. Several examples are discussed.