Predicting the Quality of an Unborn Grange*

In a recent paper Ashenfelter, Ashmore and Lalonde found they could explain the variation in the price (and quality) of Bordeaux vintages by a combination of age, temperature and rainfall. The same ideas are applied here to Grange Hermitage, Australia's premier wine. Weather variation is less important than in Bordeaux. However, some remarkably robust results are obtained: a ‘quality index’ for Grange is derived, predictions about still unreleased vintages are made, the Australian regression coefficients work well in the Bordeaux equation, and issues relating to market efficiency in the pricing of young wines are examined     

HOW THE GLOBALIZATION OF R&D COMPETITION AFFECTS TRADE AND GROWTH

The implications of international R&D competition on trade and growth are investigated. The model is one in which a separate R&D sector competes with the manufacturing sector to secure human capital, and technology is licensed to manufacturers by the winner of a pre-emptive R&D competition. The results show that globalization of R&D competition leads to trade between countries (even identical countries), because the result of competition leads to a reallocation of human capital between sectors. The winning country exports technology and traditional goods, while the loser exports manufactured goods. Globalization with indiscriminate technology licensing increases the world's economic growth rate.     

Consumers’ Use of Credit Cards: Store Credit Card Usage as an Alternative Payment and Financing Medium

This paper investigates consumers’ use of store-issued credit cards with particular attention to their function as an alternative payment and financing medium. Using 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances data, the researchers found that credit availability through bankcards is negatively correlated with consumers’ use of store cards as a financing medium, suggesting the role of store cards as a supplementary credit line. A negative relationship is also found to exist between consumers’ bankcard usage and their use of store cards for a transaction purpose, indicating that store cards function as a substitute payment medium. Consumers’ usage of store cards varies according to function and is related to a number of variables, including the use of bank cards, credit history, attitude toward credit, income, education, and ethnicity.     

A MODEL OF SELF‐FULFILLING FINANCIAL CRISES*

This paper combines the structural weakness and the self‐fulfilling panic view to explain the cause of the East Asian crises. In this model economy, the diversification strategies induce conglomerate firms to overinvest. They accumulate losses due to their unprofitable sectors and then compensate by obtaining bank loans. Domestic banks, which borrow from foreign banks, lend money as long as the total amount of accumulated loans remains within the firms’ collateral value. The model shows that if the debt to collateral value ratio belongs to a certain range a self‐fulfilling crisis can occur due to the self‐fulfilling expectations of foreign investors.     

DURABLE GOODS MONOPOLISTS AND BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY*

This paper provides an economic analysis on the choice of backward compatibility by a durable goods monopolist in the presence of network effects. We examine the time inconsistency problem faced by a monopolist in its dynamic provision of two compatible products. We suggest an economic reason why, and when it will be strategically optimal, for the monopolist to choose backward compatibility even though it is socially undesirable, and not to choose forward compatibility even though it is technologically possible. We also investigate the compatibility choices with and without price discrimination, and compare market outcomes with the social optimum. Two different social inefficiencies (planned obsolescence) which arise from the viewpoints of optimal consumption and optimal compatibility are discussed.     

Credit Market Frictions and Coessentiality of Money and Credit

We explore how credit market frictions matter for the coessentiality of money and credit. Limited commitment calls for credit limits that are tailored according to borrowers' productivity. Under an adverse selection problem caused by asymmetric information, however, lenders impose the credit limit of the low-productivity borrower onto the high-productivity borrower. If productivities differ sufficiently between borrowers, the high-productivity borrower is credit-constrained and is willing to hold money to compensate for the deficiency of their credit limit, whereas the low-productivity borrower is not. This implies the coessentiality of money and credit in the sense that their simultaneous use improves welfare.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF LAWS RESTRICTING YOUTH ACCESS TO TOBACCO

Since many smokers begin consuming tobacco products in their adolescent years, many states have adopted a variety of restrictions on youth access to tobacco, which studies show reduces the demand for tobacco among this cohort. This paper takes a different track by addressing the demand for youth access restrictions. Specifically, using a random effects Probit procedure, which controls for the endogeneity of cigarette consumption and taxation, we examine the determinants of nine methods commonly used by states to restrict youth access to tobacco . ( JEL H70, I18)