Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners

This paper aims to test whether a given type of process innovation, namely flexible production technologies (FPTs), contributes to increased firm efficiency. Using one-year firm data from the Portuguese manufacturing industry and applying a parametric stochastic frontier approach, individual technical efficiencies are obtained and their determinants simultaneously estimated, using a single-step procedure recently proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995 Battese, G and Coelli, T. 1995. A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function and panel data. Empirical Economics, 20: 325–32.  ). The results support the hypothesis that technological flexibility, measured through the use of FPTs, is important in explaining differences in efficiency. Furthermore, given the specifications of the stochastic frontier function, the null hypothesis that Portuguese firms are fully technically efficient is rejected.     

Third-country exchange rate volatility and Japanese–US trade: evidence from industry-level data

As an important economic power globally as well as within Asia, Japan is susceptible to fluctuations in the yen versus both the dollar and its neighbours’ currencies. The resulting risk, from both sources, might, therefore, have important effects on Japanese trade. This study incorporates third-country exchange rate volatility (both yen-renminbi and dollar-renminbi) into a reduced form trade model for industry trade between the US and Japan. As was the case with a previous study that did not include these effects, our cointegration analysis finds that most industries are unaffected by risk. Third-country effects are, however, significant in a number of cases. Interestingly, a large share of US industries find that exports increase due to third-country risk, suggesting that this volatility is encouraging traders to reorient their trade markets by substitution.     

Commodity trade between Pakistan and the US: is there evidence of the J-curve?

A few studies that have attempted to estimate the short-run (J-curve) and long-run impact of exchange rate depreciation on Pakistan’s trade balance are either based on aggregate trade data between Pakistan and the rest of the world or between Pakistan and her bilateral trading partners. The findings are mixed at best. Considering the trade balance between Pakistan and the US, as one of its major partners, no significant effects have been discovered. Suspecting that the trade flows between the two countries could suffer from another aggregation bias, we disaggregate their trade flows by commodity and consider the trade balance of 45 industries that trade between the two countries. We find significant short-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance of 17 industries. The short-run effects last into the long run in 15 cases. The largest industry that account for more than 10% of the trade seems to benefit from real depreciation in the long run.     

Do the black market and the official exchange rates converge in the long run?

Establishing cointegration and long-run convergence between the official and the black market exchange rates is a way of testing foreign exchange market efficiency. Earlier research employed the Engle-Granger or Johansen method to test for cointegration between the two rates. Since either method requires each rate to be non-stationary, exchange rates that did not possess this property had to be excluded from analysis. However, with the introduction of the bounds testing approach to cointegration, no exchange rate needs to be excluded since this relatively new technique does not require pre-unit root testing. This paper employs monthly data from 27 developing countries and the bounds testing approach to cointegration by Pesaran et al. (2001) to show that in 22 out of 27 countries, not only are the two rates cointegrated but in all countries the black market exchange rate causes the official rate to adjust and converge toward the black market rate in the long run.     

The demand for money in an open economy: the United Kingdom

Most previous studies have estimated the demand for money without paying too much attention to developments in the foreign exchange markets. In light of the fact that any development abroad and in the foreign exchange markets could have implications for domestic stabilization, we make an attempt to incorporate such developments into the demand for money in the United Kingdom. More precisely, after incorporating a measure of real effective exchange rate of the British Pound into a dynamic money demand function, we estimated it for the UK using quarterly data over 1973–87 period. By relying upon the Akaike' Final Prediction Error criteria to select the optimum number of lags, it is shown that in addition to income and interest rate, the real effective exchange rate exerts significant effect on the UK demand for money in the short run as well as long run.     

Do MNCs spur financial markets in corrupt host countries?

This study investigates how MNCs can sway the growth of financial markets in the developing countries with prevalent political corruption. Using annual data of panel of 22 developing countries and applying dynamic generalized method of moment (GMM) technique, we find foreign firms can spur financial markets in the developing countries through direct investment. Furthermore, our results indicate the stimulus effect of foreign investment on financial development is stronger in the more corrupt countries.     

Does black market exchange rate volatility deter the trade flows? Iranian experience

Previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows, employed official exchange rate data to construct a measure of exchange rate uncertainty. In this paper we show that in countries that there is a black market for foreign exchange, the black market exchange rate volatility could have adverse effect on the trade flows. We show this by using data from Iran and cointegration analysis.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITY IN LESS-DEVELOPED AND TRANSITION ECONOMIES: A REVIEW PAPER

Abstract.  The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) has been the subject of numerous studies, many of which have been unable to prove conclusively this core principle of international finance. Although industrialized countries have received most of the attention, studies that focus on less-developed and transition economies have also attained mixed results. This study surveys trends in this branch of the literature, highlighting the econometric advances that have sought to solve this puzzle, while pointing out that more needs to be done to address the reasons that might cause PPP not to hold.     

Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between U.S. and China: is there a third country effect

Impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows still continues to dominate the literature. Most previous research has used aggregate trade data between one country and the rest of the world or between two countries at a bilateral level. A recent study, however, considered the trade between the U.S. and China at the commodity level, but excluded the ??third-country?? effect in its analysis. In this paper, we consider the commodity trade between the U.S. and China one more time and investigate whether volatility of the real U.S. dollar-Canadian dollar has any implication on the trade flows between the U.S. and China. The answer happens to be in the affirmative, though a more significant third-country effect is found in the short run as compared to the long run.     

The Japanese–U.S. trade balance and the yen: Evidence from industry data

While it is often assumed that a country's trade balance will improve in the long-run if its currency is allowed to depreciate, this is not necessarily the case for specific goods. In the short run, the opposite might even take place, as fixed quantities and rising import prices cause the trade balance to deteriorate. In this paper, we apply cointegration methodology to assess the short- and long-run impact of fluctuations in the yen–dollar real exchange rate on Japan's trade balance with the U.S. for 117 industries. We find that depreciation causes the trade balance to improve in the long-run for about one-third of Japanese industries. Most short-run effects are in the same direction, indicating a quick improvement in these industries’ trade balance, rather than a period of deterioration such as a “J-curve.”