Designs for estimating an extremal point of quadratic regression models in a hyperball

This paper is devoted to studying optimal designs for estimating an extremal point of a multivariate quadratic regression model in the unit hyperball. The problem of estimating an extremal point is reduced to that of estimating certain parameters of a corresponding nonlinear (in parameters) regression model. For this reduced problem truncated locally D-optimal designs are found in an explicit form. The result is a generalization of the results of Fedorov and Müller (1997) for onedimensional quadratic regression function in the unit segment. Received February 2002     

减少汽车业的浪费

汽车制造商和零件供应商可以节省巨大开支，但前提是双方要更为紧密地合作在一起麦肯锡的研究表明，北美汽车业每年在产品开发和组装过程中由于汽车生产商与供应商缺乏良好的计划和协调不当，造成了超过100亿美元的浪费。事实上．这只是较为保守的估算。因为我们的研究仅涵盖了供应商发生的成本，如：附加设计、生产工具最后改型和零件自身的附加成本。这还不包括因设计问题生产商需额外支付的改型费用、生产问题引发的车辆最终成本的增加或质保支出。这几项每年给汽车行业带来的浪费约为120亿美元。     

The Morishima gross elasticity of substitution

We show that the Hotelling–Lau elasticity of substitution, an extension of the Allen–Uzawa elasticity to allow for optimal output-quantity (or utility) responses to changes in factor prices, inherits all of the failings of the Allen–Uzawa elasticity identified by Blackorby and Russell [(1989) Am Econ Rev 79: 882–888]. An analogous extension of the Morishima elasticity of substitution to allow for output quantity changes preserves the salient properties of the original Hicksian notion of elasticity of substitution. We thank Paolo Bertoletti for drawing our attention to the issue addressed in this paper and for his comments on an earlier draft.     

The Zilcha criterion for dynamic inefficiency

Summary. This paper reexamines the condition (1 + n), which Zilcha (1991) presents as a necessary and sufficient condition for dynamic inefficiency of stationary allocations in overlapping generation models with stochastic production. We show that this condition is necessary but not sufficient for a stationary allocation to be dynamically inefficient by Zilchas definition. We also show that there is a narrow but widely studied class of specifications in which the Zilcha test is both necessary and sufficient for dynamic inefficiency of stationary competitive equilibrium allocations. Outside this class, however, counterexamples can be constructed relatively easily.Received: 30 September 2002, Revised: 13 August 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D51, D90, E13, E22. Correspondence to: Steven RussellWe thank Jon Burke, Subir Chakrabarti, Itzhak Zilcha and an anonymous referee for helpful conversations and/or comments.     

Aggregation bias, compositional change, and the border effect

Borders affect the composition, not only the level, of interregional trade. In disaggregated U.S. Commodity Flow data, border effects vary substantially across commodities. Substantial border–induced compositional change suggests the possibility that standard estimates suffer from aggregation bias arising from endogenous industry location patterns and the presence of zero observations in commodity–level trade. Adjusting for these effects reduces the estimate of the aggregate border effect from 20.9 to 5.7. JEL Classification: F14, F15
Biais d'agrégation, changement de composition, et effet de frontières. Les frontières affectent la composition et pas seulement le volume de commerce inter-régional. Une analyse des données désagrégées des flux de commerce de biens des Etats-Unis montre que l'effet de frontières varie substantiellement selon les biens. Le changement de composition du commerce engendré par les frontières suggère la possibilité que les estimations usuelles souffrent d'un biais d'agrégation résultant des patterns de localisation industrielle endogènes et de la présence d'observations nulles dans le commerce de certains biens. Un ajustement pour tenir compte de ces effets suggère que les effets de frontières passent de 20.9 à 5.7.     

“Do Fiscal Deficits Influence Current Accounts? A Case Study of India”

This paper examines the effects of fiscal deficits on the current account deficits in the Indian economy. In many developing countries, fiscal deficits are mostly financed through monetization, causing crowding out of private investment expenditures. However, fiscal deficits in India are mostly financed through official borrowings from various external sources, leading to higher interest payments and outgoings on the external account. Such a policy could eventually precipitate balance of payments crises despite favorable trade account and real exchange rate. Data over three decades for the Indian economy show that, in addition to the real exchange rate and the ratio of private investment to GDP, fiscal deficits significantly contribute to the current account deficits.     

THE REAL WAGE GAP

Over the past year a gap has opened up between the growth of manufacturing productivity and that of real wages. This gap cannot persist indefinitely, but it can be closed in many different ways. The best that can happen is that wage settlements fall while output and productivity accelerate. The worst outcome would be continued stagnation of real output and no deceleration of wages, in which case the required productivity improvement would have to come about through renewed labour shedding. There are worrying signs that this has started to happen. An intermediate solution might involve a fall in the exchange rate, with some improvement in competitiveness boosting real output (so that UK producers get a larger share of buoyant consumer spending) and some rise in prices holding back real wages.
We continue to believe that the most likely outcome is a rise in output and a fall in the rate of wage settlements. In our June forecast this occurs despite a fall in the real exchange rate. In these circumstances we expect the growth of unit labour costs to fall back from its current high level so that the current 3 per cent inflation rate becomes a true "core" rate. But a moderate fall in the real exchange rate may prove hard to achieve, especially if the oil price continues to weaken. We therefore explore what would happen if the required depreciation happens more rapidly, so that interest rates have to remain high to prevent it getting out of control. In this case we would expect lower growth and higher inflation than we forecast in June.     

Book Reviews

Ross H, McLeod (ed.), Indonesia Assessment 1994: Finance as a Key Sector in Indonesia's Development, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, and Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1994, pp. 353. $25.00; S$35.00; A$30.00.

Miranda S. Goeltom, Indonesia's Financial Liberalization: An Analysis of 1981–88 Panel Data, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1995, pp. xii + 93.

Joan Hardjono and Charles Warner (eds), In Love with a Nation: Molly Bondan and Indonesia, published by Charles Warner, Picton, NSW, 1995, pp. 256. A$16.95.

ln Love with a Nation is privately published and obtainable from the following Australian suppliers: Gleebooks, 49 Glebe Point Rd, Glebe 2037; Nusantara Bookshop, 72 Maroondah Hwy, Croydon 3136; or from Charles Warner, PO Box 194, Picton 2571. (If ordered from Charles Warner, price including postage is AS20 within Australia; A$25 to Europe, America or Africa; A$23 to Asia, Pacific.)