Experimentation in the 21st century: The importance of external validity

Much of the consumer behavior literature is devored to what has been referred to as theory applications (TA) research in which the main focus is on laboratory experiments with student subjects and high internal validity. In this articlee, the author argues that external validity concerns should be given more attention, particulary in TA research. Three recommendations are made for implementing these concerns: (1) consumer behavior articles should be required to have a section indicating how increased levels of external validity can be obtained with other studies, (2) “joint ventures” between consumer behavior and marketing science researchers can be profitable and should be encouraged, and (3) analyses of electronic scanner panel data or other secondary data can be used to generate higher levels of external validity. Three examples are given from the marketing literature of how findings from experiments and scanner data can be combined to advance a stream of research. Russel SS. Winer is the J. Gary Shansby Professor of Marketing Strategy, the associate dean for academic affairs, and the chair of the marketing group at the Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley. He received a B.A. in economics from Union College (New York) and an M.S. and Ph.D. in industrial administration from Carnegie-Mellon University. He has been on the faculties of Columbia and Vanderbilt universities and has been a visiting faculty member at M.I.T., the Helsinki School of Economics, the University of Tokyo, and ócole Nationale des Ponts et Chauséee. He has written three books,Marketing Management, Analysis for Marketing Planning, and Product Management, and has authored more than 50 papers in marketing on a variety of topics, including consumer choice, marketing research methodology, marketing planning, advertising, and pricing. He is the editor of theJournal of Marketing Research and is on the editorial boards of theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Consumer Research, and theJournal of Interactive Marketing. He is the academic director of the Fisher Center for the Strategic Use of Information Technology. He has participated in executive educattion programs around the world and is an academic trustee of the Marketing Science Institute.     

Business Cycles: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper looks at recent advances in the study of aggregate fluctuations. The emphasis is on three prominent areas of research: the stochastic growth model, economies which exhibit macroeconomic complementarities and models that emphasize heterogeneity. Each section of the paper outlines the theory, examines relevant empirical evidence and then discusses some policy implications of the analysis.     

Asymmetric price adjustment in a menu-cost model

In this paper we demonstrate that the menu-cost model implies that prices adjust asymmetrically to nominal-demand shocks and that the asymmetry is linked to the elasticity of demand as well as menu costs. These implications are tested using manufacturing and retailing panel data for the OECD countries. The empirical results give some support for the menu-cost model.     

Employees and High-Performance Work Systems: Testing inside the Black Box

Most work on high‐performance work systems has examined only the direct relationship between a set of management practices and performance outcomes. This presumes that any connection operates through the incentive and motivational effects captured as 'high-commitment' or 'high-involvement' employee outcomes. No attempt has been made to examine the alternative, Labour Process conceptualization, which expects performance gains from new management practices to arise instead from work intensification, offloading of taskcontrols, and increased job strain. Using data from WERS98, we tested models based on high-performance work systems and labour process approaches. Both were found wanting, and we consider the possible implications of these failures.     

Supply and demand estimates for feed grains in China

In the past two decades, the use of grain to feed livestock in China has increased rapidly. A number of studies have examined demand and supply of grain for animal feed in China. Forecasts have been made. Generally, these projections have turned out to be well wide of the actual supply and demand. Further, forecasts of supply and demand for feed grains for the same time periods have differed greatly. Accurate forecasts of variables affecting supply and demand benefit both producers and consumers. Past forecasts of supply and demand of feed grain for livestock production in China are reviewed and reasons for discrepancies between projections are explored. Ways to improve projections of demand for and supply of grain for livestock feed in China are identified.     

The pricing of bank bill futures and FRA contracts in New Zealand

This study examines pricing in the bank bill futures and forward rate agreement (FRA) markets. The study finds (i) the bill futures market is more transactionally efficient than the FRA market, and (ii) the unbiased expectations hypothesis generates more accurate estimates of bill futures and FRA yields than the cost of carry hypothesis. The first result reflects impediments to FRA market arbitrage such as illiquidity, minimum trade sizes and credit limits. The second result contradicts US evidence but is consistent with the leading role played by the bank bill and interbank dealers in New Zealand interest rate markets.     

In search of the convexity adjustment: Evidence from the sterling futures and IMM FRA markets

This study examines daily and intraday data on sterling interest rate futures and IMM forward rate agreement (FRA) contracts for evidence of the convexity adjustment in FRA quotes. The futures/FRA differential is marginally negative, contrary to the predictions of convexity models. Standard statistical tests confirm that the futures/FRA differential does not differ between contract maturities. Regression analysis also fails to find any support for the predicted positive relationships between the differential and the term to settlement and volatility of interest rates. These results suggest that dealers in the sterling FRA market do not price convexity into quotes on FRA contracts. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:617–633, 2008     

Centralized and decentralized tourism governance in Turkey

In many developing countries governance is highly centralized. The considerable potential benefits of decentralization for such countries are widely espoused, but less attention is paid to the potential difficulties and dangers. This paper develops a framework of issues to consider when evaluating the decentralization of tourism governance, including its potential benefits and shortcomings. There is examination of the transfer of authority and the distribution of power, legitimacy and accountability. The framework is used to assess tourism governance in the Turkish coastal resort of Belek, notably the involvement of central and local government, a privatized company, and a nongovernmental organization. The difficulties and threats linked to decentralization in Belek warn against an uncritical adoption of such policies.