Strategic interaction in undeveloped credit markets

This paper studies the strategic interaction between informal and formal lenders in undeveloped credit markets. In a model with adverse selection, loan seniority, market power, and differences in the cost of lending, it is shown that under general conditions a co-funding equilibrium will be a Nash outcome of the game. We demonstrate that a collateral requirement in connection with formal loans always generates a new co-funding equilibrium in which both lenders earn higher profits. A government subsidy to the formal lender may have the opposite effect. We relate our results to existing empirical evidence and the emerging discussion of how to best ensure financial viability and outreach of microfinance institutions.     

Manual and Automated Procedures for Compiling a Very Large Sample of Centenarian Pedigrees

A large portion of the baby boomer population will live beyond the age of 90 years, and entitlement programs and various insurance products have thus become interested in longevity risk. Beyond cohort life table predictions, actuaries have little to go on in determining which individuals or portions of populations are at increased risk of living to 90 or 100 or even older. We and others have noted strong familial risk for living beyond the oldest one percentile of survival, and we developed an algorithm that uses information about relatives’ longevity to compute the chance of an individual surviving to extreme old age. An important step of this work is to compile large samples of pedigrees with and without long-lived family members. Here we describe our process of hand curation of centenarian pedigrees and software that we have developed for the automated construction of such pedigrees using internet-based resources that can support the manual process.     

Welfare Policies, Labour Taxation and International Integration

How will international integration affect welfare policies? This paper considers the possibilities of financing public sector activities (public consumption and social security expenses) by general (wage) taxation in an economy which becomes more integrated in international product markets. Even if labour is internationally immobile, the increased mobility of products and hence jobs implies a change in the distortions arising from taxes and social security contributions levied on labour income. Since financing of social security via general taxation involves a common resource problem the effects of international integration depend critically on the institutional structure of the labour market. This paper shows that increased international integration inducing more product market competition implies that it becomes more costly to maintain welfare systems financed by general taxation.     

The Impacts of Redesigning European Agricultural Support

The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of decoupling at the individual member state level in the European Union and in non-member regions of liberalizing domestic support in the EU. Three scenarios are analysed to illustrate the impacts of eliminating or decoupling the European agricultural support. We found that the existing domestic support payments in the EU are indeed coupled to production and hence affect production decisions and distort international trade with adverse effects on the export potential of developing countries as a consequence. Further, the value of this support is capitalised in significant higher land prices in Europe than would otherwise prevail. The scenarios illustrate the economic implications of transforming all domestic support payments (as well as other distorting policies) into a nationally homogenous and fully decoupled payment to all agricultural land, irrespective of a farmer's decision to crop or not. The analysis suggests that it is possible to convert the existing agricultural support into a fully decoupled payment which would not distort international trade and it indicates a way forward to offset the negative impact on land prices. Such a policy would also comply with the WTO rules (i.e. fall within the green box as decoupled income support). The analysis also suggests that such a policy reform could be achieved at somewhat lower budgetary costs as compared with the existing costs of the Common Agricultural Policy.     

Variance components models for survival data

Extensions of the Cox proportional hazards model for survival data are studied where allowance is made for unobserved heterogeneity and for correlation between the life times of several individuals. The extended models are frailty models inspired by Y ashin et al. (1995). Estimation is carried out using the EM algorithm. Inference is discussed and potential applications are outlined, in particular to statistical research in human genetics using twin data or adoption data, aimed at separating the effects of genetic and environmental factors on mortality.     

Understanding interfirm relations in mediation industries with special reference to the Nordic mobile communication industry

Telecommunication operators exemplify firms that employ a mediating technology to organize exchanges among customers. This paper develops a framework for understanding interfirm relations in such industries by considering mediation-specific properties of division of labor and the associated resource interdependencies. We apply the concept of primary and secondary relationship functions developed by Håkansson and Johansson to a mediation value system. The findings have implications for management of cooperative and competitive relationships in mediation industries.     

A time series analysis of Danish markets for pork, chicken, and beef

We offer a first-time empirical depiction of Danish dynamic meat price/quantity transmissions by formulating, estimating, and testing a VAR model of market-clearing quantities and prices of the Danish pork, chicken, and beef markets. The analysis illuminates how these markets dynamically handle shocks, and it is demonstrated that: (i) the three meats are close substitutes; (ii) chicken and pork market shocks have own-market and cross-market effects that occur rapidly and swiftly, while beef market shocks have more enduring impacts on pork and chicken markets; (iii) prices are in general more endogenous than quantities; and (iv) the price of chicken is much more endogenous than the prices of pork and beef.     

Knowledge productivity and the returns to agricultural research: a review

This paper describes the identification, specification, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models of knowledge productivity and the returns‐to‐research. General issues related to these models are discussed and placed in context of the literature. The path from R&D investment to economic benefit is complex, convoluted, generally unknown and possibly misrepresented. The complexity arises from the intricate spatial spillover relationships and the very long time periods involved, which complicate any econometric analysis. The relevant R&D investment data are typically unavailable, incomplete and poorly measured (or approximated). The appropriate calculation of the financial benefit is not entirely clear. Some parsimonious suggestions for future research are presented.