Basic Stochastic Dynamic Systems of Growth and Trade

Uncertainties are intrinsic features of dynamic economic systems, and this paper considers the dynamic implications of factor endowment (labor, capital) uncertainties for a small growing trading economy. The stochastic growth models presented extend the open neoclassical two-sector growth model (Deardorff) to a stochastic environment in continuous time, and extend the diffusion dynamics of one-sector growth models (Merton; Bourguignon) to a trading two-sector economy. It is demonstrated that the basic propositions of deterministic steady-state growth and endogenous growth theory, under some specifications and certain parametric restrictions, are preserved within a stochastic framework.     

UML modelling concepts of HAZOP to enhance the ability to identify emerging risks

Unified Modelling Language (UML) has a graphical notation for 13 different types of diagrams and can be used as a general modelling tool. Well-known examples of diagram types are class diagrams for modelling classes that can be instanced into objects, state machine diagrams for modelling states in systems and activity diagrams for modelling process flows. A literature survey shows that UML has been used to model concepts and methodologies of risk assessment and risk management. One example is the Coras Framework. The international standard CEI IEC 61882 Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies describes concepts for investigating and detecting possible hazards in systems. In CEI IEC 6882, guide words like ‘More’ and ‘Less’ are applied to system parameters to invoke deviations in the system and assess possible hazards due to the deviation from the design intent. In this paper, we have used UML to model concepts of CEI IEC 61882 Hazards and operability studies. Diagrams of UML were used to show dependencies and relations between parts of the target system and concepts of CEI IEC 61882. Extensions of UML are suggested to better capture and display the concepts of CEI IEC 61882, the results of a HAZOP study and emerging risk. These extensions are referred to as UML for emerging risks (UML-ER).     

Japanese Professional Business Services: A Proposed Analytical Typology

This paper explores certain characteristics of Japanese professional business services (PBS). The aim is to develop an analytical typology consisting of the three dimensions – organizational linkage, service market, and competitive situation – for analysing the obtained empirical data. This typology has been developed in order to increase the understanding of how Japanese companies operate within this sector and also to examine the reasons behind the fact that Japanese business services seem to be marginalized in an international context. This typology could serve as a theoretical frame for comparing Japanese companies with western companies in future research. This research is based on empirical material collected in Japan in the spring of 2001, covering research institutes, general trading houses and insurance companies. Using the constructed analytical typology, the findings reveal that strong organizational linkages have generated a business service market where diversification of service supply within companies is common. However, there are strong indications of a changing business environment with increased competition and further specialization among business service firms. Furthermore, the findings indicate that Japanese companies have difficulties competing with highly-specialized and reputable western business service firms.     

Politics in wage setting: does government colour matter?

This paper studies the relationship between wage formation and the political colour of the government in an economy with a centralized wage bargaining system. Ideological, organizational and personal ties between the central trade union and the social democratic political party suggest that the trade union may behave significantly different in wage negotiations under a social democratic than under a conservative government. Using time series data for Norway, we estimate that changing from a conservative to a social democratic central government significantly reduces manufacturing wages and makes wages more responsive to unemployment. This result is consistent with a wage bargaining model augmented by political preferences of the union leaders and suggests that the effect of bargaining coordination depends on the political colour of the government. The estimated effects are both robust with respect to model specification and stable over time. We are grateful to Fredrik Wulfsberg, participants at seminars in Trondheim and Oslo, and an anonymous referee for valuable comments.     

Estimating individual action dispositions using binary and frequency egocentric sexual network data

The degree distribution of nodes in a sexual network has been under thorough investigation, as has its implications for the spread of sexually transmitted infections. However, not only the structure of the network is of importance in regulating the propagation of an infection. Two nodes connected by an edge may take actions that reduce the transmission probability through that edge. Condom use is one such action. In this article, we derive models for individual action dispositions, and how they together generate an outcome on the edge connecting two nodes. We derive two main models: One where two connected nodes generate one outcome together (suitable for casual sex partners), and one where they generate several outcomes together (suitable for steady sex partners). We model different disposition distributions and different rules on how the dispositions generate outcomes, using an egocentric network dataset on condom use behavior.     

The aggregate cost of equity underdiversification

We analyze equity diversification of all retail investors in a country (Denmark). We find that underdiversification is pervasive. We calculate the nationwide aggregate loss due to underdiversification and express it in absolute and expected‐return terms. The aggregate loss is large. We find that investors with low education, low income, and low wealth are more likely to underdiversify. Despite better diversification, the larger fraction of the aggregate loss nevertheless adheres to the top of the income/wealth distribution. Finally, our results indicate that underdiversification arises because investors have limited information about the benefits of diversification.