Ratings Changes,Ratings Levels,and the Predictive Value of Analysts’ Recommendations

We show that abnormal returns to analysts’ recommendations stem from both the ratings levels assigned and the changes in those ratings. Conditional on the ratings change, buy and strong buy recommendations have greater returns than do holds, sells, and strong sells. Conditional on the ratings level, upgrades earn the highest returns and downgrades the lowest. We also find that both ratings levels and changes predict future unexpected earnings and the associated market reaction. Our results imply that 1) investment returns may be enhanced by conditioning on both recommendation levels and changes; 2) the predictive power of analysts’ recommendations reflects, at least partially, analysts’ ability to generate valuable private information; and 3) some inconsistency exists between analysts’ ratings and the formal ratings definitions issued by securities firms.     

Points of Reference and Individual Differences As Sources of Bias in Ethical Judgments

The authors demonstrate that ethical judgments can be biased when previous judgments serve as a point of reference against which a current situation is judged. Scenarios describing ethical or unethical sales practices were used in an experiment to prime subjects who subsequently rated the ethics of an ethically ambiguous target scenario. The target tended to be rated as more ethical by subjects primed with unethical scenarios, and less ethical by subjects primed with ethical scenarios. This "contrast effect," however, is contingent upon individual differences. Specifically, subjects with high (versus low) needs for cognition are more likely to process and use the information presented in the priming scenarios as a point of reference against which to judge the target situation, and hence more prone to the contrastive bias. Implications for avoiding unintentional moral relativism in business decision-making are discussed.     

COMBINING REVEALED AND STATED PREFERENCE DATA TO ESTIMATE THE NONMARKET VALUE OF ECOLOGICAL SERVICES: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE

Abstract This paper reviews the marketing, transportation and environmental economics literature on the joint estimation of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data. The RP and SP approaches are first described with a focus on the strengths and weaknesses of each. Recognizing these strengths and weaknesses, the potential gains from combining data are described. A classification system for combined data that emphasizes the type of data combination and the econometric models used is proposed. A methodological review of the literature is pursued based on this classification system. Examples from the environmental economics literature are highlighted. A discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each type of jointly estimated model is then presented. Suggestions for future research, in particular opportunities for application of these models to environmental quality valuation, are presented.     

A decision‐analytic approach to screening in chemical alternatives assessment

Material selection in the chemistry value chain involves consideration of many objectives, including cost, performance, health risk, and environmental impact. Alternatives assessment is an emerging tool for guiding complex decisions with respect to these goals. As a relatively new method, the process is not yet well developed, especially with respect to how trade‐offs among objectives can be assessed accurately and inexpensively. Using paint strippers alternatives assessment as an illustrative example, we show how an established decision‐analytic method, known as comparative screening, allows for a multistep process with gradually increasing information needs. Compared with existing methodological approaches, comparative screening instills flexible and consistent treatment of trade‐offs. This is important because it maximizes the potential for a robust assessment while minimizing arduous data collection. Further, its use in the alternatives assessment process can support the selection of more sustainable materials.     

A Closed-Form,After-Tax,Net Present Value Solution to the Mortgage Refinancing Decision

Refinancing one's mortgage is often an attractive, wealth-enhancing option for homeowners in a declining mortgage rate environment. In some respects the decision is simple to analyze because future cash flows are relatively easy to define for fixed-rate mortgages. In other respects, however, the decision is nuanced by option pricing and tax considerations. The analysis must first begin with accurate after-tax, net present value solutions for varying potential holding periods. This study improves upon previous studies, which either ignore tax implications or address them iteratively in spreadsheet model solutions, by introducing a closed-form model that incorporates the ever-changing tax shield of the interest portion of each mortgage payment. Further, unlike many previous studies, our model does not assume that the current and replacement mortgages have equal remaining terms.     

Economics at the FTC: Hospital Mergers,Authorized Generic Drugs,and Consumer Credit Markets

Economists at the Federal Trade Commission pursue the agency’s competition and consumer protection missions. In this year’s essay, in antitrust, we discuss various aspects of our hospital merger analyses as well as the effects of authorized generic drugs on consumers and competition. In consumer protection, we describe two ongoing studies on the use of credit-based insurance scores to price homeowners insurance, and the accuracy of consumers’ credit reports that are provided by credit bureaus.     

'Errors & Omissions' in the Reporting of Australia's Cross-Border Transactions

The study is motivated by the consideration that large and variable statistical discrepancies in key economic performance data and successive data revisions may distort the conduct of economic policy and its subsequent evaluation. Its specific object is the exploration of the statistical properties of Australia's cross-border transactions records: the structural stability of reported errors & omissions and the convergence of reported transactions over successive revisions. The major positive findings are that there is only limited evidence of convergence of measured to true magnitudes of cross-border transactions; that there is robust evidence of structural instability of the balancing item; and that financial sector transactions appear increasingly to constitute the major source of misreporting of balance of payments outcomes.