Bayesian averaging,prediction and nonnested model selection

This paper studies the asymptotic relationship between Bayesian model averaging and post-selection frequentist predictors in both nested and nonnested models. We derive conditions under which their difference is of a smaller order of magnitude than the inverse of the square root of the sample size in large samples. This result depends crucially on the relation between posterior odds and frequentist model selection criteria. Weak conditions are given under which consistent model selection is feasible, regardless of whether models are nested or nonnested and regardless of whether models are correctly specified or not, in the sense that they select the best model with the least number of parameters with probability converging to 1. Under these conditions, Bayesian posterior odds and BICs are consistent for selecting among nested models, but are not consistent for selecting among nonnested models and possibly overlapping models. These findings have important bearing for applied researchers who are frequent users of model selection tools for empirical investigation of model predictions.     

A Model for Analyzing the Impact of Selective Lapsation on Mortality

Abstract

This paper presents a model for examining the effect of various relationships between mortality rates and lapse rates on the mortality experience of a cohort of insured lives. The approach is individual rather than the aggregate traditionally used in analyzing selective lapsation. The model assumes that insured lives are healthy at policy issue, but later may move to an impaired state from which the lapse rate is zero. Associated with each insured is an unobservable “risk level” random variable, which reflects the heterogeneity of the insured group. Individual mortality and lapse rates are functions of the risk level. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained by using this model.     

The cultural milieu of management: A comparative study of the role of management in ASEAN

The role of a business school and form of management education in any country must depend on the specific role of management in the economy. This, in turn, depends on the milieu or business ambience in which management must operate. A set of types of milieu can be distinguished for ASEAN countries which form a sequence approximately correlated with the process of modernisation. The different tasks and required traits for management in the various milieus are discussed and some implications for management schools and education noted.     

Earnings,dividend policy,and present value relations: Building blocks of dividend policy invariant cash flows

In a Modigliani-Miller world, dividend policy is irrelevant for asset pricing. This article searches for cash flows with two characteristics: like dividends, asset prices can be calculated from their present values and, unlike dividends, they are invariant with respect to changes in dividend policy. Segmented and aggregate residual income measures with these features are identified under two assumptions: dividend policy does not alter risk premiums and income earned from investments associated with dividend policy includes unrealized capital gains and losses. The results hold for otherwise arbitrary risk premiums in the general no-arbitrage approach to the valuation of uncertain income streams.     

The Law of Demand versus Diminishing Marginal Utility

Diminishing marginal utility (DMU) is neither necessary nor sufficient for downward-sloping demand. Yet, upper-division undergraduate and beginning graduate students often presume otherwise. This paper provides two simple counter-examples that can be used to help students understand that the Law of Demand does not depend on DMU. The examples are accompanied with the geometry and basic mathematics of the utility functions and the implied ordinary/Marshallian demands.     

Success factors for collaborative product development: a study of suppliers of information and communication technology

It is apparent that more and more organizations are embarking on collaborative ventures to develop products. This is particularly evident in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sectors, so much so that part of the 'received wisdom' of ICT companies is that collaboration is the preferred route for product development. The benefits of collaboration have been well documented and are linked to the complexity and costliness of product development and the need for inputs from wide and varied areas of expertise as well as shorter lead times for product development. But the risks and costs of collsborative product development have been less well defined. In this paper, it is argued that the alleged rewards of collaboration may not be experienced in practice and that collaboration can lengthen the product development process, add to the cost of product development and prove difficult to control. However, management practice can facilitate the effective outcome of collaborative product development and the critical factors affecting the likelihood of successful management practice are presented here.     

Groundwater and the Land Value Tax

Abstract . Application of the land value tax has been described for many natural resources. However, the problems encountered with flowing underground resources have not been fully discussed. Groundwater is one such flowing resource that affects the value of surface land. The underground water is also subject to its own market forces. If a Georgist tax is to be applied to groundwater or to land affected by it, the administrator of the tax must consider the interplay that occurs between the two resource markets. A system of separable property rights to the two resources offers the prospect for efficient use. But the monitoring of ground water use must accompany such a separation.     

Hayekian evolution reconsidered: a reply to Hodgson

This is a reply to Geoffrey Hodgson's Comment on an earlierpaper by Caldwell (Hodgson on Hayek: a critique). Though certainareas of agreement are noted, differences in interpretationconcerning Hayek's views on the Malthus–Darwin relationship,on cultural evolution, on the extent to which Hayek may be characterisedas an ontogenist, and on methodological individualism remain.     

SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS IN LAND CLASSIFICATION

Three interpretive systems of soil classification for agriculture were compared with respect to land use, crop yields, and certain economic characteristics. Sixty-eight farms in the Peace River area of British Columbia were classified as high or low under the ARDA, soil survey, and agronomic classification systems. Mean values for the two categories of farms under each classification system were computed and tested for statistical significance. The results indicated that as the number of significant differences increased, so did the management consideration. Consequently, the agronomic classification was the best indicator, followed by the ARDA system, and then the soil survey productivity index. Considering the basic concepts of the classification systems, this trend was not entirely unexpected. The results suggest that the management factor should play a larger role in developing viable interpretive soil classification systems and that co-operation should be sought among the various disciplines concerned with agricultural land use. LES FACTEURS SOCIO-ECONOMIQUES DANS LA CLASSIFICATION DES SOLS ACRICOLES – Trois systèmes de classification des sols agricoles ont été comparés avec I'aide du type d'utilisation des sols, du rendement des récoltes et de certaines caractéristiques économiques. Soixante-huit fernws dans la zone de “Peace River” en Colombie Britannique out été classifiés, en deux catégories avec I'aide de I'ARDA de I'enquête des sols et des systèmes de classification agronomique. Les principals valeurs pour les deux catégories de fermes appartenant à chaque système de classification ont été calculées et testées afin de vérifier leur signification statistique. Les résultats indiquérent que le nombre de différences significatives augmentaient en mêmc temps que la qualityé du “management”: Conséquence directe, la classification agronomique etait le meilleur indicateur, suivi du systeme ARDA et enfin de lindice de productivityé de l'enquête des sols. Étant donné les concepts de base de ces systèmes de classification, cette tendance n‘était pas complètement inattendue. Les résultats suggèrent que le facteur de “management” devrait jouer un rôle plus large en développant des systèmes de classification des sols viables et que la coopération devrait être recherchée parmi les différentes disciplines concernées par Vutilisation agricole des sols.