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991.
The use of scanner data in the CPI makes it possible to compile superlative price indexes at detailed aggregation levels since prices and quantities are available. A potential drawback is the high attrition rate of items. The usual solution to handle this problem, high-frequency chaining, can create drift in the index series due to price and quantity bouncing arising from sales. Ivancic, Diewert and Fox (2009) have recently proposed an approach that provides drift free, superlative-type indexes through adapting multilateral index number theory. In this paper we apply their proposal to seven product groups and find promising results. We compare the results with those obtained by using the Dutch method to deal with supermarket scanner data. 相似文献
992.
André Luis Santiago Maia Francisco de A.T. de Carvalho 《International Journal of Forecasting》2011,27(3):740
Interval-valued time series are interval-valued data that are collected in a chronological sequence over time. This paper introduces three approaches to forecasting interval-valued time series. The first two approaches are based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and Holt’s exponential smoothing methods, respectively. In Holt’s method for interval-valued time series, the smoothing parameters are estimated by using techniques for non-linear optimization problems with bound constraints. The third approach is based on a hybrid methodology that combines the MLP and Holt models. The practicality of the methods is demonstrated through simulation studies and applications using real interval-valued stock market time series. 相似文献
993.
George AthanasopoulosOsmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén João Victor Issler Farshid Vahid 《Journal of econometrics》2011,164(1):116-129
We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of traditional criteria and criteria with data-dependant penalties and we prove its consistency. A Monte Carlo study explores the finite sample performance of this procedure and evaluates the forecasting accuracy of models selected by this procedure. Two empirical applications confirm the usefulness of the model selection procedure proposed here for forecasting. 相似文献
994.
Bjarne S. Jensen Paul de Boer Jan van Daal Peter S. Jensen 《Journal of Economics》2011,102(3):217-235
This paper extends the analytical and empirical application of the basic indirect utility function of Houthakker–Hanoch—called
the CDES specification (constant differences of elasticities of substitution). The non-homothetic CDES preferences are the
natural parametric extension on the global domain of the homothetic CES preferences with many commodities, and CDES can conveniently
be used in specifying CGE multisector models with a demand side satisfying observable Engel curve patterns. Moreover, all
Marshallian own-price elasticities are no longer restricted to exceed one, and positive and negative cross-price effects are
allowed for in empirical demand analyses. Explicit calculations of the Allen elasticities of substitution are instrumental
in demonstrating the economic implications of the parameters of indirect utility functions with global regularity properties
and flexibility of the derived demand systems. 相似文献
995.
Erik van de LindeAuthor Vitae Patrick van der DuinAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(9):1557-1564
A Delphi study was performed to answer the question: Which global societal trends relate to future radicalization and subsequent terrorism in the Netherlands? An inventory of two hundred global societal trends and a literature study of radicalization together served as briefing of the participants in the Delphi study. The first two rounds were conducted in anonymous writing. The third round was a face to face focus group meeting. In the first and second round participants scored the trends, adjusted their scores relative to others and provided arguments, and in the focus group meeting, themes were discussed in which the participants remained to have strong opposite views. This approach emphasizes divergence in opinion (‘dissensus’), as opposed to convergence (‘consensus’). Consensus seeking to us seems to be the dominant application of Delphi, but we emphasize the value of seeking dissensus. We hypothesize that in those cases where the opposite views that were discussed kept their ground, this Delphi study may have found early warnings of future radicalization.The essence of this paper is that it is possible, with limited effort, to get a handle on the complex and poorly defined subject of global societal trends influencing future radicalization. Application of the Dissensus Delphi method provided a selection of early warnings that may be looked into with future research. 相似文献
996.
Purificacíon Vicente GalindoAuthor Vitae Teresa de Noronha VazAuthor Vitae Peter NijkampAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(1):3-12
The present paper addresses the dynamics of innovation, by extending the analysis beyond a static-economic perspective. It offers a dynamic-institutional mapping of relational capacities to dynamically innovate. Its main goal is to contribute to the above-mentioned research theme by presenting a new methodology able to pinpoint different trends in the relational capacities of institutions when they are innovative. Thereby, major characteristics in the networks of innovation are identified. This investigation uses an extended set of private institutions and public organizations located in Portugal, evaluated by their WebPage contents. To this data set a new combination of multivariate statistical methods is applied to detect group performances, to compare them, and to identify gradients of capacity to dynamically innovate. The results demonstrate that this method can provide extremely useful and tailor-made information for policy evaluation at regional or national levels. 相似文献
997.
The growth in world trade during the last decades was largely caused by increasing bilateral exchanges of parts and components
as a consequence of international fragmentation of production. Apparently, the international integration of the Newly Industrializing
and Eastern European economies prompted firms in ‘high-wage’ countries to exploit factor price differences in order to increase
their international competitiveness. However, theory predicts that, beside factor price differences, international fragmentation
of production should be driven by a multitude of additional determinants. Against this background, the present paper reveals
empirical evidence on parts and components trade as an indicator for international fragmentation of production in the European
Union and determines its main explanatory factors. The results of a panel data analysis show that especially industry specific
factors as well as communication and transportation infrastructure are likewise important for shifting production to or sourcing
components from foreign countries. 相似文献
998.
Justin van de Ven 《Economic Modelling》2011,28(4):2054-2070
A structural model of the household is described that represents current best-practice in the analysis of savings and labour supply responses to the policy environment. Care has been taken in specifying the model so that it represents an appropriate basis for the analysis of incentive effects to policy change, and for exploring the empirical support for alternative structural assumptions. Matching the model to survey data for the UK reveals some interesting puzzles in relation to the timing of retirement. 相似文献
999.
Business schools around the world have embraced globalization and, as a result, attempted to attract international students to their programs. Teaching diverse student groups has many advantages, but is not without its challenges, including cultural differences in educational expectations and student self-efficacy. The goal of this article is to suggest that we can create plans and activities capable of helping Asian students adapt more quickly to the expectations of Western education. We herein describe Rotterdam Business School's experiences in working with a diverse—mainly Asian—population of students, focusing on strategies that may assist them in adapting to the expectations of the global business school classroom. 相似文献
1000.
Verantwortung als Team übernehmen — Ein konstruktives Miteinander von ?rzten und Pflegenden ist keine Utopie. Voraussetzung
ist jedoch, dass bei Entscheidungskonflikten jeder bereit ist, seine Position zu überdenken und Kritik – ohne verletzend zu
sein – zu üben und anzunehmen. 相似文献