Stability of a crime level equilibrium

We consider crime level in an economic market with a supply of potential criminals. These criminals differ in their opportunity cost for committing crime, reflecting differences in the value of foregone opportunities such as performing productive labor. The realized demand is influenced by the expected value for crime, which depends on several socio-economic variables including wealth, police enforcement, and police arrest ability. After determining the equilibria level suggested by our approach, we propose a dynamic setup and study the stability of this system. Two critical enforcement levels are determined. Exceeding the lower enforcement threshold will push crime to stabilize (converge) to an equilibrium level. Correspondingly, exceeding the higher enforcement threshold will collapse the crime market to zero.     

On S-curves and tipping points

In his discussion in this journal of Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near, Modis criticizes Kurzweil's loose characterization of the “knee” of a growth curve. Likewise, the “tipping points” described by Gladwell (The Tipping Point) are clearly relevant to forecasting systems, but Gladwell did not mathematically identify such points. Both concepts refer to a point on the curve where growth accelerates dramatically and sustains itself. What can be said in a rigorous way about knees and tipping points in growth systems?The answer has to do with the number of parameters of the growth curve, and the (probabilistic) model underlying the growth curve. Using probability theory and computational experiments, this paper clarifies these points for the logistic and Bass curves (identifying an unambiguous tipping point for the latter), and explores the merits of a 3-parameter model of innovation adoption. It concludes that if forecasters are to deal scientifically with the now-established management notion of “tipping points,” a 3-parameter model is needed. The paper also resolves four minor but annoying paradoxes in the growth curve literature.     

Dynamics of social factors in technological substitutions

Diffusion models of technological innovations are often based on an epidemic structure which has a good fit to historical data but whose communication assumptions lack explanatory power. They assume a simplified decision process, uniform decision criteria across adopters categories, and a fully interconnected social structure. The objective of this paper is to show that the dynamics of social factors during technological substitutions have significant effects on substitution patterns. The success of a paradigmatic shift is not only a function of technological characteristics but also depends on change agents and many social dynamics. Such complexity requires analysis at several levels of granularity. We start with cognitive processes at the individual level using concepts from cognitive psychology and decision making under uncertainty and then move to interpersonal communications at the aggregate social level. We show that population heterogeneity generates different decision criteria and a social topology which greatly affect perceptions and the formation of expectations. The structure of interpersonal networks also explains how the relevance and credibility of information impact the critical mass dynamics of technology adoption. A more complete model accounting for social interactions provides a useful framework for understanding complex substitution patterns and reducing the risk of misreading the market.     

Knowledge transfer in an innovation simulation model

To understand the development of innovation processes in these knowledge-driven economies, one needs to focus on underlying processes of creating and sharing new knowledge. In this paper, an evolutionary simulation model is used to achieve some insights into these innovation processes. The model is based on the one hand on rules about market performance, investments and R&D strategies, and on the other hand on a model concerning knowledge creation (the ability of firms to create knowledge through intramural R&D efforts and the ability to discover and absorb new developments from basic academic research and competitors) and knowledge transfer based on an exponentionally expanding pool of (not necessarily new) knowledge of innovations in the own sector, but also from external sources. It is demonstrated that the imitative firm can be economically more successful but this strategy may prove to be superior only after a long time span.     

A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth

This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world real GDP growth using mixed-frequency models. It shows that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. Specifically, the best-performing model yields impressive gains with MSPE reductions of up to 34% at short horizons and up to 13% at long horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark. The global economic conditions indicator also contains valuable information for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. This indicator is used to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the U.S., the OECD area, and the world economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and the main factors that drive the nowcasts are quantified.     

Building human-centered systems in the network society

This paper considers the development of selected projects which have been engaged in building information and communication networks in urban and regional environments, with the ultimate goal of developing networked places. It is argued that such networks have the potential to attract and mobilize people into a “culture of knowledge” and make public administration and free markets more effective, but require adequate infrastructures, incentives and institutional frameworks.The analysis builds on the co-evolution of human and social contexts at local levels and the endogenous process of technical change, namely in terms of information and communication technologies. We conclude that networked places should be designed holistically, adaptable to change and continuously assessed in order to accommodate humanity.The first generation digital cities have shown the need to build flexible and interoperable technological infrastructures, yet robust and user friendly, to support knowledge networks. The new paradigm of semantic grids may respond to the increasing complexity and heterogeneity of humanity and urban environments and support more effectively the creation and diffusion of knowledge networks to help mobilizing the information society and to promote the inclusive development of networked places.     

Analysis of the Lotka-Volterra competition equations as a technological substitution model

This paper provides insight into the dynamics of the Lotka-Volterra competition (LVC) equations, a much used competition model, and compares the dynamics of LVC competitive substitution to that of several well-known substitution models. The behavior of the LVC equations is analyzed for the special case of a dominant competitor at equilibrium being replaced after the introduction of a small population of an invading competitor with a competitive advantage. Expressions are derived that describe the growth of the invading competitor and that growth is shown to be of four classes: left asymmetric, logistic, right asymmetric with 1−ε₂ asymptote and right asymmetric with γ asymptote. It is shown that the LVC model reverts to logistic substitution in a market of fixed size, a result with important implications. The LVC equations are fitted to the Gompertz, Bass, Non-Symmetrical Responding Logistic (NSRL) and Sharif-Kabir substitution models and compared using a novel graphical technique. The LVC equations can reasonably mimic the full range of curve shapes exhibited by each of these models.     

Visioning the regional future: Globalization and regional transformation of Rabat/Casablanca

The mainstream literature on globalization and regional transformation emphasizes two major perspectives. The first perspective combines global city theory with macro theories of transformations with a normative bias often leading to deterministic conceptualisations of globalization links to regional transformation. The other perspective emphasizes economy as the most important if not the only pushing factor for regional transformations with little attention to all transformations involving soft and informal structures The latter may be vital for such transformation. This paper takes a completely new approach namely to analyse local stakeholders' visions of regional transformation of the Rabat/Casablanca region in face the challenges that globalization poses.     

Diversity and integration of science and technology policies

This paper discusses recent conceptual approaches to technical change, based on an emerging diversity of policies and increasing “institutional specialization” and clarification of the role of the private and public incentives to support S&T. This fact is reflected in the trend in developed economies towards increasing private investment in science and technology and we argue for the need to promote public policies in modern societies fostering competence building.This broad concept has motivated the work behind the present special issue, which was launched during the 6th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation (ICTPI), hold in Monterey, Mexico, in the summer of 2003. Under the broad designation of “Connecting People, Ideas, and Resources across Communities” the Conference brought together a range of experts to discuss technology, policy and management in a context much influenced by a dynamic of change and a necessary balance between the creation and diffusion of knowledge. Thus, this special issue includes a set of extended and revised contributions to the Monterey conference that are largely grounded on empirical experiences of different regional and national contexts. The aim of this introductory paper is to set the stage for these contributions, with an original contribution on possible views for emerging science and technology policies.     

Unemployment and employment offices’ efficiency: What can be done?

Regional employment offices provide placement services to job-seekers and employers and organize active labor market programs. In this paper, we carry out a quantitative evaluation of the employment offices’ performance in Switzerland based on production efficiency measures. We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate the performance of all employment offices and then account for factors in the local operating environment that are outside managerial control. This approach, and the ranking of employment offices, may easily be interpreted by policymakers and provides guidelines for raising the efficiency of the public employment service. Our findings suggest that there is considerable room for improved efficiency in employment service, which could lead to a lower level of structural unemployment. We also find that differences in the external operating environment have a significant influence upon the efficiency of employment offices.