Attitudes Toward Catastrophe

In light of climate change and other global threats, policy commentators sometimes urge that society should be more concerned about catastrophes. This paper reflects on what society’s attitude toward low-probability, high-impact events is, or should be. We first argue that catastrophe risk can be conceived of as a spread in the distribution of losses. Based on this conception, we review studies from decision sciences, psychology, and behavioral economics that explore people’s attitudes toward various social risks. Contray to popular belief, we find more evidence against than in favor of catastrophe aversion—the preference for a mean-preserving contraction of the loss distribution—and discuss a number of possible behavioral explanations. Next, we turn to social choice theory and examine how various social welfare functions handle catastrophe risk. We explain why catastrophe aversion may be in conflict with equity concerns and other-regarding preferences. Finally, we discuss current approaches to evaluate and regulate catastrophe risk.     

Dictator games: a meta study

Over the last 25 years, more than a hundred dictator game experiments have been published. This meta study summarises the evidence. Exploiting the fact that most experiments had to fix parameters they did not intend to test, in multiple regression the meta study is able to assess the effect of single manipulations, controlling for a host of alternative explanatory factors. The resulting rich dataset also provides a testbed for comparing alternative specifications of the statistical model for analysing dictator game data. It shows how Tobit models (assuming that dictators would even want to take money) and hurdle models (assuming that the decision to give a positive amount is separate from the choice of amount, conditional on giving) provide additional insights.     

Evaluation of variants of economic regulation with the help of interregional “payments-income” tools

A pioneering experience in upgrading interregional models of intersectoral balance to “payments-income” systems that involve the financial side of production ties is described. Optimizing models of this class have been combined with tools for calculating aggregative price indices, which allows one to make up summary intersectoral, regional, and interregional financial balances for different forecast variants of the physical (material) production pattern.     

Evolutionary dynamics on infinite strategy spaces

Summary. The study of evolutionary dynamics was so far mainly restricted to finite strategy spaces. In this paper we show that this unsatisfying restriction is unnecessary. We specify a simple condition under which the continuous time replicator dynamics are well defined for the case of infinite strategy spaces. Furthermore, we provide new conditions for the stability of rest points and show that even strict equilibria may be unstable. Finally, we apply this general theory to a number of applications like the Nash demand game, the War of Attrition, linear-quadratic games, the harvest preemption game, and games with mixed strategies. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: January 31, 2000     

SIMPLE PROCESSES AND THE PRICING AND HEDGING OF CLIQUETS

For data on market prices for 246 cliquets we consider pricing these exotic options using a relatively simple path space. The path space is subsequently stressed to market implied stress levels as well as stress levels predicted from contract characteristics. An additive process transitioning from a Sato process to a Levy process is formulated and estimated on vanilla options. Ask prices constructed from predicted stress levels are observed to have an in sample correlation of 92% with market prices. Interestingly, it is observed that capped cash flows have negative stress levels while uncapped products have positive stress levels. We illustrate the effect of hedging cliquet liabilities using call options as hedging assets permitting a 10% reduction in ask prices.     

If Time Is Money Is It a Common Currency? Time in Anglo,Asian, and Latin Cultures

ABSTRACT

Social time affects the timing and frequency of purchases, the hours consumers patronize businesses, and how long consumers expect products to last. Understanding how culturally based social time attitudes differ will help marketers tailor their offerings and messages to consumers whose concepts of time differ. This exploratory study combined related streams of time literature to examine constructs of social time differences across cultures. Drawing upon a sample of 1377 respondents from six countries representing three cultural groups (Anglo, Latin, and Asian), the study explores the similarity and differences of cultural social time differences among these three groups.     

The Value of Biodiversity in Pharmaceutical Research with Differentiated Products

Biologists and conservation advocates have expressed grave concern over perceived threats to biological diversity. ``Biodiversity prospecting' – the search among naturally occurring organisms for new products of agricultural, industrial, and, particularly, pharmaceutical value – has been advanced as both a mechanism and a motive for conserving biological diversity. Economists and others have attempted to estimate the value of biodiversity for use in new pharmaceutical project research. In this paper we apply a new approach to estimating values: we employ two models of competition among differentiated products. Each model confirms previous findings that the value to private researchers of the ``marginal species' is likely to be small. The models can have very different implications with respect to social values, however. These findings underscore the need for a better understanding of the true meaning of diversity.Resources for the Future     

The Effects of Competition in Short Product Life‐Cycle Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures*

It is critically important to understand the relationship between new product launch strategies and their interaction with the competitive environment, which results in the successful introduction of new products. Deciding when to launch new products is among the most significant issues facing managers when formulating new products strategy, especially for products with short product life cycles. However, little extant research has focused on the interaction of product launch timing and the competitive market environment. This study explores the effects of four types of competitive threats on the market performance of short product life‐cycle products. Threats from new products and incumbents are possible. Also, products in the same category and those in related product categories exert competitive pressures. In this paper, a framework of competitive threats is developed, and research questions are constructed and empirically tested using the motion pictures industry as the focus of this research. A set of simultaneous equations was estimated using a sample of 2,948 movies introduced in the U.S. market between 1997 and 2004. The results show that all competition types have negative direct, indirect (as mediated by distribution intensity), and total effects on the performance of a new product. For a focal product, incumbent products exert a greater negative impact on performance than new entrants. Surprisingly, products in different, but related, categories are more harmful to the performance of products than products in the same category. The results have important implications for launch timing and new product performance.     

The Effects of Average Norm Model Regulation: The Case of Electricity Distribution in Sweden

Following the reform of energy sectors, some countries have used engineering norm models in incentive regulation of network utilities. In 2003, Sweden adopted this approach to regulation of electricity distribution networks. This paper examines whether the norm models represent the real networks and create incentives for performance improvement. We analyse data from 138 network concession holders between 2000 and 2007. The results show that norm models are not adequate representations of real networks. Also, utilities that perform better than their norm models tend to behave opportunistically. Finally, we find that private utilities respond more strongly to incentives.