Random belief equilibrium in normal form games

In defining random belief equilibrium (RBE) in finite, normal form games we assume a player's beliefs about others' strategy choices are randomly drawn from a belief distribution that is dispersed around a central strategy profile, the focus. At an RBE: (1) Each chooses a best response relative to her beliefs. (2) Each player's expected choice coincides with the focus of the other players' belief distributions. RBE provides a statistical framework for estimation which we apply to data from three experimental games. We also characterize the limit-RBE as players' beliefs converge to certainty. When atoms in the belief distributions vanish in the limit, not all limit-RBE (called robust equilibria) are trembling hand perfect Nash equilibria and not all perfect equilibria are robust.     

Airline competition in the British Isles

We study the relationship between pricing and market structure on the routes connecting the UK and the Republic of Ireland. Because in 2007 the European Commission prohibited the takeover of Aer Lingus by Ryanair, the analysis focuses on their pricing strategies in particular. We use an original dataset of fares posted on-line, which allows to control for the fares’ inter-temporal pattern for each specific flight and each carrier’s specific yield management system. Our evidence supports the European Commission’s view that the elimination of a competitor in the Irish airline market is likely to have harmful consequences for consumers.     

Strategies of Innovation and Imitation of Product Languages*

Nowadays, design is recognized as a strategic resource. Customers are increasingly paying attention to the aesthetic, symbolic, and emotional value of products, a value that is conveyed by the design language—that is, the combination of signs (e.g., form, colors, materials) that gives meaning to a product. As a consequence firms are devoting increasing efforts to define a proper strategy for the design language of their products. An empirical analysis was conducted on the product language strategies in the Italian furniture industry; in particular, the present article explores the relationship between innovation and variety of product languages. Companies are usually faced by two major strategic decisions. The first one concerns the innovation of product languages: To what extent should a firm proactively propose new design languages or, rather, should adopt a reactive strategy by rapidly adopting new languages as they emerge in the market? The second decision concerns the variety and heterogeneity of languages in their product range. Should a firm propose a single product language to communicate a precise identity, or should it explore different product languages? Of course, the two strategic decisions—innovativeness and variety of product languages—are closed connected. Analyzing more than 2.000 products launched by 210 firms, the present article explores how the variety of product languages is approached in the strategy of innovators and imitators. The empirical results illustrate an inverse relationship between innovativeness and heterogeneity of product signs and languages. Contrary to what is expected, innovators have lower heterogeneity of product languages. They tend to be strongly proactive and limit experimentations of new languages in the market. Imitators, instead—which would be expected to have low variety since they can invest only in languages that have been proven successful in the market—tend on the contrary to have higher product variety. Eventually, by having lower investments in research on trends of sociocultural models, they miss the capability to interpret the complex evolution of products signs and languages in the market. Strategic decisions on innovativeness and variety of product languages are therefore interrelated; counterintuitively companies should carefully analyze these decisions jointly.     

Estimating the Cost of Children from New Zealand Quasi-unit Record Data of Household Consumption

This paper utilizes quasi-unit record data on expenditures and incomes of New Zealand households of different demographic profiles to estimate alternative versions of a preference-consistent complete demand system. From the estimated models, it computes the households' expenditure elasticities and the equivalence scales required by households of different demographic profiles to attain comparable utility levels.     

Repeated Interaction and the Public Provision of Private Goods

The literature suggests that governments can use in-kind transfers to design efficient and targeted redistribution schemes if individual incomes are not directly observable. We investigate the extent to which the self-selection property of in-kind transfers carries through if redistributive transfers are made repeatedly. In a two-period setting, the government may gain information about the individuals' incomes in the first period and exploit this information for making targeted transfers in the second-period. This, however, also triggers changes in the individuals' behavior. If the government can commit to its future policy, the least cost policy may involve randomization between cash and in-kind transfers. Without commitment, the dynamic setting works against the government's interest. It may no longer be able to use in-kind transfers to generate information about the individuals' types.
JEL classification : H 42; H 2     

Structural change and long-range dependence in volatility of exchange rates: either, neither or both?

In this paper, we test for the existence of long memory and structural breaks in the realized variance process for the DM/US$ and Yen/US$ exchange rates. While long memory is evident in the actual processes, a structural break analysis reveals that this feature is partially explained by unaccounted changes in regime. We then compare the forecasting performance of Markov switching models with that of an ARFIMA model. The results indicate that neglecting the break process is not important for very short term forecasting once it is allowed for a long memory component in the model, but that superior forecasts can be obtained at longer horizons by modelling both long memory and structural change.     

The impact of the Medicare Rural Hospital Flexibility Program on patient choice

This paper seeks to understand the impact of the Medicare Rural Hospital Flexibility (Flex) Program on rural resident hospital choice. The program created a new class of hospital, the Critical Access Hospital (CAH), which receives more generous reimbursement in return for limiting its beds and services. The program's goal is to maintain access to hospital care. Estimates from a patient choice model show that patient utility from visiting a hospital was negatively affected by conversion. While the lower bed capacity appears to play a minor role, the reduction in services results in a 28% drop in admission rates.     

Extending lead-user theory to online brand communities: The case of the community Ducati

While research on user innovations within communities exists mainly in offline contexts, few studies have attempted to define the profile of lead users in online (or virtual) communities, and even fewer have been conducted in the specific context of online brand communities, formed by people with a “common interest in a brand,” in its evolution and in the discourse about it. This study focuses on innovative activities within the Ducati Motor online community. The research reveals the following characteristics as crucial factors for the identification of lead users in online brand communities: willingness to collaborate, product knowledge and strategic alignment with the brand identity. Our sample consists of 2071 messages posted by 572 Ducati Motor virtual community members in a specific blog developed by Ducati Motor with the purpose of involving members in a collaborative innovation process that took nearly 14 months. Several implications for scholars and new product development managers are discussed.     

R&D INVESTMENT, CREDIT RATIONING AND SAMPLE SELECTION

We study whether R&D‐intensive firms are liquidity constrained, by modelling their antecedent decision to apply for credit. This sample selection issue is relevant when studying a borrower–lender relationship, as the same factors can influence the decisions of both parties. We find firms with no or low R&D intensity to be less likely to request extra funds. When they do, we observe a higher probability of being denied credit. Such a relationship is not supported by evidence from the R&D‐intensive firms. Thus, our findings lend support to the notion of credit constraints being severe only for a sub‐sample of innovative firms. Furthermore, the results suggest that the way in which the R&D activity is organized may differentially affect a firm's probability of being credit constrained.