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31.
This paper analyzes the interplay of human capital formation and economic growth when there is premature adult mortality. Failing adequate insurance arrangements, a long wave of such mortality can so undermine human capital formation as to induce an economic collapse. In nuclear family structures, random matching of partners is superior to assortative mating only if the shock is not too big and initial levels of human capital are not too low. Full pooling of mortality risks with equal treatment of all children in extended families may fend off a general collapse, depending on the initial conditions and the size and duration of the shock. To avoid undesirable effects on expectations, awareness campaigns should be complemented by policies that credibly promise to reduce future mortality. If mortality depends on the general level of human capital, indeterminacy can arise in the form of more than one rational expectations path. 相似文献
32.
Clive W. J. Granger 《Journal of Applied Econometrics》1996,11(5):455-473
A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty intervals rather than 95%; noting that even though forecasters use many different techniques, they are all occasionally incorrect in the same direction; that there is a tendency to underestimate changes; that some expectations and recently available data are used insufficiently; lagged forecasts errors can help compensate for structural breaks; series that are more forecastable could be emphasized and that present methods of evaluating forecasts do not capture the useful properties of some methods compared to alternatives. 相似文献
33.
Acquirers are motivated to overstate earnings prior to stock-financed acquisitions. We hypothesize that audits help to detect and correct such overstatements. We test this using a difference-in-differences design, which compares audit adjustments to earnings for stock-financed and cash-financed acquirers before versus after the acquisitions. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find larger downward adjustments in the audits immediately before stock-financed acquisitions. Further analysis of regulatory sanctions suggests the downward adjustments are in fact warranted, rather than auditors being overly conservative. Moreover, modifications in audit reports suggest that downward adjustments do not correct all of the reporting irregularities in audited financial statements. 相似文献
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A continuous time econometric modelling framework for multivariate financial market event (or ‘transactions’) data is developed in which the model is specified via the vector conditional intensity. Generalised Hawkes models are introduced that incorporate inhibitory events and dependence between trading days. Novel omnibus specification tests based on a multivariate random time change theorem are proposed. A bivariate point process model of the timing of trades and mid-quote changes is then presented for a New York Stock Exchange stock and related to the market microstructure literature. The two-way interaction of trades and quote changes in continuous time is found to be important empirically. 相似文献
36.
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The notion of separation in cointegrated systems helps identifying possible sub-system structures that may reduce the complexity of larger systems by yielding a more parsimonious representation of the times series. In this paper we demonstrate that although the subsystem cointegration analysis in such systems can be conducted in case of both completely and partially separated systems, the dual approach, i.e. calculation of the common stochastic trends, may turn out to yield properties of the trends that differ depending upon the type of separation under consideration. In particular, we demonstrate how persistent-transitory (P-T) decompositions and long- and short-memory factorizations of a multivariate time series will interact across systems when considering the presence (or absence) of different types of separation. Generalizations to non-linear error correction models are briefly discussed. 相似文献
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39.
The hiring of accounting and finance officers from audit firms: how did the market react? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study investigates the market’s reaction to companies hiring accounting and finance officers directly from their external
audit firms—the auditor-to-client hiring practice referred to as the “revolving door.” The Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) eliminated this hiring practice, reflecting concerns that such appointments may impair audit and financial reporting
quality. However, it was also argued that companies may have benefited from hiring individuals already familiar with their
systems, organization and personnel. To determine the prevalence of this hiring practice and how shareholders viewed these
appointments, we examine 3-day cumulative abnormal returns around the announcements of newly appointed accounting and finance
officers over the period 1985–2002. We find that the proportion of revolving door hires is relatively low (only 6.1% of all
hires in our sample), but that when they did occur the market valued the revolving door appointments more positively than
other appointments. Further tests reveal that the positive market reaction to revolving door appointments is driven mainly
by smaller companies, and that these appointments are not associated with lower financial reporting quality when assessing
subsequent discretionary accruals or the receipt of an Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Release (AAER). Overall, the low
frequency of occurrence, investors’ positive perceptions, and the lack of association with deteriorated reporting quality
indicate that the SOX restriction on revolving door appointments may have been unnecessary and will do little to protect shareholders.
相似文献
David S. NorthEmail: |
40.
Working with Developers in Urban Renewal Francis Terry (Ed.). Public Finance Foundation London (1989). Discussion Paper 26, 78 pp. £10.00. ISBN 0 85299 445 1. Councils in Conflict S. Lansley, S. Goss and C. Wolmar. Macmillan, London (1989). x + 216 pp. £8.99. ISBN 0 333 454 138. The Future of Housing Allowances J. Hills, R. Berthoud and P. Kemp. Policy Studies Institute (1989). 71 pp. £5.95. ISBN 0 85374 461 0. 相似文献