Sectoral Productivity in the United States: Recent Developments and the Role of IT

Abstract. This paper introduces new estimates of recent productivity developments in the United States, using an appropriate theoretical framework for aggregating industry multi-factor productivity (MFP) to sectors and the total economy. Our work sheds light on the sources of the continued strong performance of US productivity since 2000. We find that the major sectoral players in the late 1990s pickup were not contributors to the more recent surge in productivity. Rather, striking gains in MFP in the finance and business service sector, a resurgence in MFP growth in the industrial sector, and an end to drops elsewhere more than account for the aggregate acceleration in productivity in recent years. Further, some evidence is found for a link between IT intensity and the recent productivity acceleration.     

Raising the bar (2)

In this editorial we summarise and comment on the papers published in issue 11.2 so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper analyses which regions in Europe were resilient to the great Recession and which ones were not. The second and the third develop a competing-destinations gravity model to explain respectively which hospitals people go to depending on their residential location and which regions migrants go to on entering Europe. The fourth proposes a Bayesian approach to obtain likely values if data on certain spatial units are missing. Finally, the last paper tries to explain the spreading of people in sprawling cities.     

ESTIMATING EXPECTED EXCESS RETURNS USING HISTORICAL AND OPTION‐IMPLIED VOLATILITY

We test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward‐to‐risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option‐implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994–1998 subperiod. In the 1999–2003 subperiod, the option‐implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk‐return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994–1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999–2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal‐to‐noise ratio in the latter subperiod.     

Carbon leakage revisited: unilateral climate policy with directed technical change

Using a stylized theoretical model, we argue that current economic analyses of climate policy tend to over-estimate the degree of carbon leakage, as they abstract from the effects of induced technological change. We analyse carbon leakage in a two-country model with directed technical change, where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions. Climate policy induces changes in relative prices, that cause carbon leakage through a terms-of-trade effect. However, these changes in relative prices also affect the incentives to innovate in different sectors. This leads to a counterbalancing induced-technology effect, which always reduces carbon leakage. We therefore conclude that the leakage rates reported in the literature may be too high, as these estimates neglect the effect of price changes on the incentives to innovate.      

Modeling Guarantees,Over-Indebtedness and Financial Crises in an Open Economy

This work develops a simple framework to analyse how financial intermediaries’ balance sheet problems combined with financial guarantees make an economy more vulnerable to financial crises. A ‘double default’ problem – that is, the default of financial intermediaries on their debt repayments and of the government on its guarantees to bailout intermediaries’ losses – is modelled in this study. The possibility of multiple equilibria, including a crisis equilibrium where the government is not able or willing to honor its guarantees towards the domestic financial sector, arises from the interplay of all the above elements: financial intermediaries’ level of indebtedness, government implicit guarantees and high-risk creditors’ lending. This work also produces predictions concerning the vulnerability to a financial crisis: multiple equilibria are possible only in certain ranges of the fundamentals.     

A dynamic Mincer equation with an application to Portuguese data

This article argues in favour of a dynamic specification of the Mincer equation, where the past observed earnings play the role of additional explanatory variable for current observed earnings. A dynamic approach offers an explanation why the return to schooling in terms of observed earnings is not independent of labour-market experience, as suggested by some recent empirical evidence for the United States.     

Within-groups wage inequality and schooling: further evidence for Portugal

This article provides further evidence on the positive impact of schooling on within-groups wage dispersion in Portugal, using data on male workers from the 2001 wave of the European Community Household Panel. The issue of schooling endogeneity is taken into account by using the latest available instrumental-variable technique for quantile regression, i.e. the control-function estimator due to Lee (2007 Lee, S. 2007. Endogeneity in quantile regresssion models: a control function approach. Journal of Econometrics, 141: 1131–58. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The findings are compared with earlier results based on different techniques, i.e. the instrumental-variable estimator due to Arias et al. (2001 Arias, O, Hallock, KF and Sosa-Escudero, W. 2001. Individual heterogeneity in the returns to schooling: instrumental variables quantile regression using twins data. Empirical Economics, 26: 7–40. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and the standard exogeneity-based estimator due to Koenker and Bassett (1978 Koenker, R and Bassett, G. 1978. Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46: 33–50. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).     

Raising the bar (7)

This editorial summarises the papers published in issue 13.1 so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper adopts a scale neutral approach to investigate the spatial mechanisms that cause regional innovation and growth. The second paper claims that population-weighting when calculating indices of regional inequality might lead to inconsistent outcomes. The third paper estimates the effect of distance between family residence and higher education institution on a student's academic performance, thereby accounting for endogenous regressors. The fourth paper shows an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic development at region of origin and the propensity to migrate using a multilevel approach. The fifth paper provides spatial econometric evidence of price competition between sellers of used books on Amazon.com. The last paper estimates a hedonic housing price equation and parameterizes the spatial weight matrix to determine how far back in time buyers, sellers and realtors are looking at the housing market.     

Income Distribution in Network Markets

We enquiry about the effects of first and second order stochastic dominance shifts of the distribution of the consumers’ willingness to pay, within the standard model of a market with network externalities and hump-shaped demand curve. This issue is analyzed in the polar cases of perfect competition and monopoly. We find that, while under perfect competition both types of distributional changes result in higher output, provided marginal costs are low enough, in the monopoly case the final outcome depends on the way income distribution and the network externality interact in determining market demand elasticity.