Finite sample properties of estimators for autoregressive moving average models

We analyze by simulation the properties of three estimators frequently used in the analysis of autoregressive moving average time series models for both nonseasonal and seasonal data. The estimators considered are exact maximum likelihood, exact least squares and conditional least squares. For samples of the size commonly found in economic applications, the estimators are compared in terms of bias, mean squared error, and predictive ability. The reliability of the usually calculated confidence intervals is assessed for the maximum likelihood estimator.     

The Effect of Regulation on Insurance Pricing: The Case of Germany

This article analyzes the impact of policy form regulation on the unit price of insurance and determinants of premium changes using the 1994 deregulation of the German property–liability market as a natural experiment. Our result show that policy form regulation did not increase prices above competitive levels. Factors influencing premium changes are significantly different for the two time periods, pre‐ and post‐deregulation, indicating that regulation affects insurance pricing. Focusing on highly competitive lines after deregulation, we find a significant price decrease, and this decrease is offset by higher prices in the remaining other lines.