It happened again: A Minskian analysis of the subprime loan crisis

The advanced countries are now going through the worst crisis since the Depression, but today's dominant current theories and econometric models proved unable to predict the crisis. The paper investigates whether the financial instability hypothesis of Hyman P. Minsky offers a better explanation. Minsky argued that in a period of economic growth and tranquility economic agents are more prone to take risk, and banks are more willing to finance borrowers. Meanwhile, in the course of the boom over-indebtedness and financial innovations make the financial system more fragile, and more exposed to adverse effects. We show that both these effects made themselves felt in the subprime loan crisis. Specifically, the main determinants of the crisis have been the increasing appetite for risk and financial innovations. So, we conclude that, although this crisis differs in some of its features from previous crashes and from Minsky's account, the mechanisms underscored by Minsky were and are nevertheless at work.     

AN EXACT FORMULA FOR DEFAULT SWAPTIONS’ PRICING IN THE SSRJD STOCHASTIC INTENSITY MODEL

We develop and test a fast and accurate semi‐analytical formula for single‐name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure and a few default swaptions, to price and hedge other credit derivatives consistently. We show with numerical experiments that the model implies plausible volatility smiles.     

On the distributional distance between the lognormal LIBOR and swap market models

We consider the distributional difference in forward swap rates from the LIBOR market model (LFM) and the swap market model (LSM), the two fundamental market models for interest-rate derivatives. We explain how the Kullback–Leibler information (KLI) can be used to measure the distance of a given distribution from the lognormal (exponential) family of densities and then apply this to our models' comparison. The volatility of the projection of the LFM swap-rate distribution onto the lognormal family is compared to an industry synthetic swap volatility approximation in the LFM. Finally, we analyse how the above distance changes, in some cases, according to the parameter values and to the parameterizations themselves. We find a small distance in all cases.     

DO MONETARY REWARDS CROWD OUT THE INTRINSIC MOTIVATION OF VOLUNTEERS? SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR ITALIAN VOLUNTEERS

ABSTRACT 1 : The paper studies the determinants of regular volunteering, taking its cue from the previous literature on extrinsic and intrinsic motivations. Its main contribution lies in the analysis of the role of monetary rewards in influencing intrinsic motivation. It uses frameworks that allow empirical hypotheses to be made about the effects of monetary rewards, intrinsic motivation and the combined term on volunteer labour supply. With an Italy‐based survey, the paper shows, controlling for endogenous bias, that monetary payments as well as intrinsic motivation have roles in the real‐life decision to supply volunteer work, but monetary rewards do not crowd out intrinsic motivation.     

Unravelling of Dynamic Sorting

We consider a two-sided, finite-horizon search and matching model with heterogeneous types and complementarity between types. The quality of the pool of potential partners deteriorates as agents who have found mutually agreeable matches exit the market. When search is costless and all agents participate in each matching round, the market performs a sorting function in that high types of agents have multiple chances to match with their peers. However, this sorting function is lost if agents incur an arbitrarily small cost in order to participate in each round. With a sufficiently rich type space, the market unravels as almost all agents rush to participate in the first round and match and exit with anyone they meet.     

The price stabilization effects of the EU entry price scheme for fruit and vegetables

The article assesses the stabilization effects of the EU import regime for fresh fruit and vegetables based on the entry price system (EPS). The analysis is carried out on the EU prices of tomatoes and lemons and those of imports from some of the main competing countries on the EU domestic markets: Morocco, Argentina, and Turkey. It is based on the estimation of a threshold vector autoregressive econometric model that is shown capable of taking the workings of the import regime into account. The model shows that prices behave differently when import prices are above/below the trigger entry price. This article allowed to highlight the cases for which the isolation effect of EPS seems reached and the resulting stabilization effects.     

Formal volunteering and self-perceived health. Causal evidence from the UK-SILC

The paper assesses the causal relationship between formal volunteering and individual health. The econometric analysis employs data provided by the Income and Living Conditions Survey for the United Kingdom carried out by the European Union’s Statistics (UK-SILC) in 2006. Based on 2SLS, treatment effect and recursive bivariate probit models, and religious participation as instrument variable, and controlling for social and cultural capital, our results show a positive effect of formal volunteering on self-perceived health.     

Structural social capital and mental health: a panel study

ABSTRACT

The link between social relations and psychological wellbeing is well established in sociological and mental health studies. Since the beginning of the 2000s, this link has been garnering new attention and interest in economic and public health studies. Almost twenty years of empirical studies testing this relationship have established contrasting results for two main reasons. First, the majority of the studies are based on cross-sectional data, leaving out endogeneity and heterogeneity problems; second, mental health measurements are often discordant from each other. This study investigates the relationship between structural social capital and individual self-rated mental health using five waves of the British Household Panel Survey from 1991 to 1995 (unbalanced panel N = 44,684). We take into account the heterogeneity and endogeneity issues and implement fixed effects and lag-dependent variable estimations. Moreover, we used different methodologies to measure mental health as a robustness check. Our findings show the existence of a negative relationship between being both a member of and active in an organization and worse mental health. In addition, being active within an organization in the previous year has a negative effect on worse mental health in the following year.     

A dynamic programming approach for pricing CDS and CDS options

We propose a flexible framework for pricing single-name knock-out credit derivatives. Examples include Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) and European, American and Bermudan CDS options. The default of the underlying reference entity is modelled within a doubly stochastic framework where the default intensity follows a CIR++ process. We estimate the model parameters through a combination of a cross sectional calibration-based method and a historical estimation approach. We propose a numerical procedure based on dynamic programming and a piecewise linear approximation to price American-style knock-out credit options. Our numerical investigation shows consistency, convergence and efficiency. We find that American-style CDS options can complete the credit derivatives market by allowing the investor to focus on spread movements rather than on the default event.