Recent trends in intra-industry trade and their implications for future trade liberalization

Zusammenfassung Jüngste Entwicklungen im intra-industriellen Handel und ihre Bedeutung für eine künftige Handelsliberalisierung. — In diesem Aufsatz wird untersucht, ob sich die Muster des intra-industriellen Handels (IIH) aus den sechziger und siebziger Jahren in den achtziger Jahren fortgesetzt haben. Es wird gefragt, ob der historische Nachkriegstrend in Richtung auf einen verst?rkten IIH umgekehrt wurde und — falls das der Fall war — weshalb. In der Analyse werden Daten aus 16 OECD-L?ndern für die Perioden 1970–1980 und 1975–1985 verwendet. Die Entwicklung des IIH scheint besonders für die Handelsabkommen relevant zu sein, bei denen die Partner erwarten, da\ die haupts?chlichen Handelsanpassungen innerhalb der Firmen und Industriezweige stattfinden und weniger zwischen den Industriezweigen. Zwei kürzlich abgeschlossene bilaterale Abkommen — zwischen Neuseeland und Australien und zwischen Kanada und den Vereinigten Staaten — beleuchten diese Fragestellung.

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Résumé Les tendances récentes du commerce intra-industriel et leurs effets sur la libéralisation du commerce extérieur en futur. — Cette étude examine si les caractéristiques du commerce intra-industriel dans les années soixante et soixante-dix sont les mêmes comme dans les années quatre-vingt. Il est demandé si la tendance historique après la dernière guerre mondiale vers un commerce intra-industriel plus fort s’est changée et, si oui, quelles sont les causes d’une telle évolution. L’analyse compend des données de 16 pays de l’OCDE pour les années 1970–1980 et 1975–1985. Les tendances du commerce intra-industriel semblent être particulièrement importantes pour les accords du commerce en futur si les partenaires attendent que les ajustements primaires ont lieu plus en firmes et en industries qu’entre des secteurs industriels. Deux accords bilatéraux donnent un exemple récent: c’est l’accord entre la Nouvelle Zélande et l’Australie et celui entre le Canada et les Etats Unis.

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Resumen Tendencias recientes en el comercio intrasectorial y sus implicaciones para una futura liberalización del comercio. — En este trabajo se investiga si el patrón de comercio intrasectorial (CIS) de la década del 60 y del 70 continué en los a?os 80. Se pregunta, si la tendencia histórica de la posguerra indicando un aumento del CIS se ha revertido, y, en caso de ser así, ?porqué? El análisis cubre datos para 16 países miembros de la OECD para dos periodos, 1970–1980 y 1975–1985. La tendencia del CIS parece ser particularmente relevante para futuros acuerdos comerciales en los cuales los participantes esperan que los ajustes primarios en el comercio tengan lugar dentro de las empresas y dentro de los sectores industriales, en vez de entre los sectores. Dos acuerdos bilaterales recientes, firmados entre Nueva Zelandia y Australia por un lado y entre Canadá y los EE.UU. por el otro, arrojan algo de luz sobre el tema.

     

推进生态产品价值创造的流域综合治理项目管理模式优化研究——以深莞茅洲河流域水环境治理项目为例

在全国大力发展生态文明背景下,生态产品价值对流域综合治理项目效益提出了更高的要求。生态产品价值创造视角下流域综合治理项目更加关注生态、经济、社会效益的统一,而传统的流域综合治理项目在推进生态产品价值创造的过程中仍然存在如协同治理的缺失、源头治理的忽视、施工效率的低下等诸多问题,严重影响了生态产品价值挖掘的充分性与高效性。文章基于系统均衡理论,以中国电力建设股份有限公司所开展的深莞茅洲河流域水环境治理项目为例,总结流域综合治理项目管理模式经验,并提出科学顶层设计、完善实施路径、创新项目实施模式三个维度的优化措施,助力流域提高生态产品供给量,实现人和自然和谐共生的流域综合治理目标。以生态产品价值创造的视角研究流域综合治理项目效益,进一步深化了流域综合治理理论的发展,为全国流域综合治理提供可参考的经验。     

Sequential real rainbow options

We develop two models to value European sequential rainbow options. The first model is a sequential option on the better of two stochastic assets, where these assets follow correlated geometric Brownian motion processes. The second model is a sequential option on the mean-reverting spread between two assets, which is applicable if the assets are co-integrated. We provide numerical solutions in the form of finite difference frameworks and compare these with Monte Carlo simulations. For the sequential option on a mean-reverting spread, we also provide a closed-form solution. Sensitivity analysis provides the interesting results that in particular circumstances, the sequential rainbow option value is negatively correlated with the volatility of one of the two assets, and that the sequential option on the spread does not necessarily increase in value with a longer time to maturity. With given maturity dates, it is preferable to have less time until expiry of the sequential option if the current spread level is way above the long-run mean.     

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement: Implications for Red Meat and Grain

Canada and the U.S. acknowledged the problems arising from trade barriers and sought to reduce them through negotiation of a bilateral Free Trade Agreement. Implementation of the FTA may cause significant economic changes within the red meat/livestock and grain sectors for both countries. Although both sectors are of major importance, the actual magnitudes and distribution of gains and losses have not been quantified. This paper focuses on consumer and producer welfare issues and the effects of the FTA on the red meat/livestock and grain sectors for selected regions of the U.S. and Canada. Data were carefully researched, expert opinion was solicited from both countries, and a mathematical programming model was used to complete the analysis. The 1989 provisions of the FTA will have only marginal effects on the respective sectors or on welfare as measured in the model. The analysis demonstrates that if additional provisions of the FTA are phased in over time (partial FTA policy) instead of being adopted all at once (comprehensive FTA policy), more severe dislocations occur. For either scenario, and as measured in the model, consumers benefit at the expense of producers. Le Canada et les Etats-Unis ont reconnu les problèmes provenant des barrières commer-ciales internationales, et ont churché à les réduire a travers la négociation d'un accord bilatéral de libre échange. La realisation de cet accord « FTA » pourrait entrainer des change-ments économiques importants, dans les secteurs viande de boeuf et céréales, pour les deux pays. Bien que les deux secteurs soient d'une importance majeure, l' étendue des gains et des pertes n'avait pas encore été évaluée. Ce papier se préoccupe de la répartition des bénéfices aux consommateurs et aux producteurs, ainsi que des effets du FTA sur les secteurs viande de boeuf et céréales de certains régions des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Les données utilisées dans ce papier ont été soumises à une recherche soignée, les opinions d'experts des deux pays ont été solicitées, et un modèle de programmation mathématique a été employé afin de compléter cette analyse. Les provisions 1989 du FTA n'auront que des effets marginaux sur les secteurs respectifs et les bénéfices, tels qu'ils sont mesurés dans le modele. L'analyse demontre que l'adoption d'une façon graduelle de provisions supplémentaires du FTA « partial FTA policy » aura des conséquences plus sévères qu'une adoption totale de toutes ces provisions « comprehensive FTA policy ». Selon Tun ou l'autre des scénarios, tels que mesuré dans le modèle, les consommateurs profiteraient au dépens des producteurs.     

Collectivistic and Individualistic Values: Their Effects on Group Dynamics and Productivity in China

Collectivistic and individualistic values are theorized to have far reaching effects on teamwork and organizations. This study proposes that cooperative and competitive goal interdependence mediates the relationship between these values and group interaction and outcomes. Working in State Owned Enterprises in three regions of China, 689 employees in 194 teams indicated their group's values, goal interdependence, constructive controversy, and productivity. Their managers also reported on the extent these teams were productive. Structural equation analysis suggested that collectivistic values may reinforce cooperative goals and an open-minded discussion of views which in turn results in strong relationships and team productivity, as experienced from both the team's and manager's perspectives. Individualistic values, especially the horizontal version, can have contrasting effects through fostering competitive goals and closed-minded discussion. These results, coupled with previous research, suggest that collectivist values, cooperative goals, and constructive controversy provide an important foundation for productive teamwork.     

Is there a negative relationship between the order-of-brand entry and market share?

The order-of-entry effect has been continually examined over the last quarter century, leading to the generalization that a negative relationship exists between the order-of-brand entry and market share. As the number of followers that become market share leaders and the conceptual arguments against this assumption grow, the nonexistence of this negative relationship has yet to be empirically demonstrated. This research challenges the generalization by examining market conditions in which a brand’s entry position has exerted a positive effect on its market share potential, compared with an earlier entry position. Using order-of-entry models consistent with extant literature, an empirical analysis of consumer scanner data across 375 followers reveals two situations that challenge the prediction of a negative relationship between the order-of-brand entry and market share.     

Managing for customers and employees in Hong Kong: The quality and teamwork challenges

Service marketing, total quality management, and human resource management researchers have proposed that employee teamwork is a foundation for service quality. North American research suggests that developing cooperative relationships and constructive controversy among employees can empower employees to serve customers and to strengthen their work relationships and commitment to the organization. Chinese employees in an American-style restaurant in Hong Kong were interviewed on specific incidents that affected service quality. Correlational and structural equation results support the hypotheses that cooperative goals help employees discuss their diverse views open-mindedly and that this constructive controversy results in quality customer service. Competitive and independent goals were largely negatively correlated with dynamics and outcomes. Results were interpreted as suggesting that service teams should develop strong cooperative goals and the skills and procedures of constructive controversy. Deutsch's theory of cooperation and competition, although developed largely through North American research, seems useful for understanding and developing service quality teamwork in Asia.     

Are regression approach futures hedge ratios stationary?

In contrast to some recent research, this article finds that regression approach futures hedge ratios are stationary. It shows that a previous study's failure to reject the random walk null hypothesis was due to its small sample size and the overlapping hedge ratio calculation approach's bias toward accepting the random walk hypothesis. The impact of overlap on the Dickey-Fuller full model intercept and slope estimates is demonstrated analytically and numerically. Finally, the article shows that out-of-sample hedging performance is not significantly improved by updating the hedge ratios. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:851–866, 1998