Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics

Four alternative but related approaches to empirical evaluation of policy interventions are studied: social experiments, natural experiments, matching methods, and instrumental variables. In each case the necessary assumptions and the data requirements are considered for estimation of a number of key parameters of interest. These key parameters include the average treatment effect, the treatment on the treated and the local average treatment effect. Some issues of implementation and interpretation are discussed drawing on the labour market programme evaluation literature.JEL Classification: J21, J64, C33Correspondence to: Richard BlundellThis review was prepared for the special microeconometrics PEJ. Comments from the editors, the referee and participants at the CeMMAP conference at which the papers for this volume were presented are gratefully acknowledged. The research is part of the program of the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Fiscal Policy at IFS. Financial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged. The second author also acknowledges the financial support from Sub-Programa Ciência e Tecnologia do Segundo Quadro Comunitário de Apoio, grant number PRAXIS XXI/BD/11413/97. The usual disclaimer applies.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.     

The aftermath of the subprime crisis: a clustering analysis of world banking sector

The banking sector has been on the spotlight in both academic and policy circles since the outburst of the subprime bubble. The crisis has its roots in the US, but there were spillover effects around the world. We study the behavior of the banking sector of 40 countries during the period 2007–2010, using a new clustering methodology. Our methodology combines regime switching models in the modeling of longitudinal variations with cluster analysis that identifies groups of countries with similar profiles. Our results show that although there were periods of intense contagion, the impact was uneven among sample countries. The crisis had episodic effects on some countries, while others had severe devaluations after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Finally, a small group of banking systems has plunged into a long severe crisis.     

Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons

Despite an extensive body of research, the best way to model the dependence of exchange rates remains an open question. In this paper we present a new approach which employs a flexible time-varying copula model. It allows the conditional correlation between exchange rates to be both time-varying and modeled independently from the marginal distributions. We introduce a dynamic specification for the correlation using the Fisher transformation. Applied to Euro/US dollar and Japanese Yen/US dollar, our results reveal a significantly time-varying correlation, dependent on the past return realizations. We find that a time-varying copula with the proposed correlation specification gives better results than alternative dynamic benchmark models. The dynamic copula model outperforms at six different time horizons, ranging from hourly to daily, confirming the model specification.     

Mandatory Adoption of IASB Standards: Value Relevance and Country-Specific Factors

The objective of this study is to investigate if the value relevance of European-listed companies increased after the mandatory application of International Accounting Standards (IAS)/International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and how the value relevance of accounting information prepared under IAS/IFRS is shaped by the specific factors of the country in which companies are domiciled. Results show that the value relevance of financial information during the period companies applied mandatory IAS/IFRS is higher than for the period during which they applied local accounting standards. We also found that countries where accounting and tax are clearly separated show more relevant accounting information. Finally, we found that companies from countries with more legal and public enforcement mechanisms disclose less relevant accounting information under IAS/IFRS.     

Special issue: 20th anniversary of the Portuguese Economic Journal. Editors’ introduction

Portuguese Economic Journal -