Geographical and industrial spillovers in entry decisions across export markets

This article addresses sequential entry decisions in export markets. It focuses on externalities derived from previous export activity in countries close to those for which a potential entry decision is made (geographical spillovers) and externalities derived from previous presence of other firms in the same industry (industrial spillovers). The empirical analysis uses Spanish microdata for the period 2000–2010 in a firm decision model that also integrates country and industry characteristics. The results suggest that these two types of spillovers have a positive effect in explaining entry decisions in new export markets, though both are smaller in magnitude than the effects coming from previous presence in the same specific destination.     

Finance, Banks and the Stability of Emerging Markets

Access to finance and sound banking institutions are two critical elements in any attempt to promote economic development in least-developed countries. Nevertheless, only in recent years have existing relations between financial liberalization, banking practices and the economic performance of emerging market economies been investigated in depth. In this review essay, prompted by a recent book, "Finance for Development" by Barbara Stallings, we discuss some important issues in this promising field of applied research.     

Information disclosure, banking development and knowledge-driven growth

In this study we develop a knowledge-driven growth model which explicitly models the banking sector as monopolistically competitive. The main mechanism through which financial intermediaries affect the real economy is through the evaluation and provision of liquidity to R&D projects. We distinguish two scenarios. In the regime with information disclosure, banks are able to use the stock of information obtained by the banking industry from evaluating R&D projects. This information externality brings about efficiency improvements, thereby leading to a positive entry of banks, more bank-funded research and in turn positive economic growth. By contrast, in the regime with no information disclosure, it is not profitable for new banks to enter the industry. This implies that no more potential R&D projects can be evaluated and hence financed, thus leading the economy to a zero-growth equilibrium.     

Energy dependence,oil prices and exchange rates: the Dominican economy since 1990

This paper studies the impact that oil prices have had on the floating exchange rate (ER) of the Dominican peso during the 1990–2008 period. The existing empirical literature has documented a link between these two variables for large developed economies and oil-producing countries, always including the 1970s oil crises in their sample periods. Few authors analyze the case of small open economies dependent on oil imports. Since the acceleration of economic growth in the Dominican Republic during the last decade has greatly increased its degree of external energy dependence, this country’s experience presents an ideal case study. We estimate the influence that changes in international gasoline prices have on the real exchange rate between the Dominican peso and the United States dollar. The cointegrated nature of the gasoline price and ER time series are tested and a vector error correction model is developed. Our results indicate that a 10% rise in the price of gas coincides with a 1.2% depreciation of the peso in the long run and that the causality runs from gas prices to the peso.     

Price uncertainty, saving, and welfare

We analyze how commodity price uncertainty affects saving behavior and welfare in a dynamic model with multiple commodities, portfolio hedging, and a preference structure that disentangles ordinal preferences, attitudes towards risk, and attitudes towards intertemporal substitution. We show that the effect of price uncertainty on savings boils down to knowing (1) hf degree of resistance to intertemporal substitution and (2) the effect that uncertainty has on the certainty-equivalent real interest rate. We also show that, if the certainty-equivalent real interest rate is lower with uncertainty, consumers' welfare is also lower.     

Poverty and the Atkinson BI/FRT model: A note

By endogenizing an income-oriented poverty line in Atkinson’s (1995) model, welfare maximizing conditions for a basic income/flat rate tax scheme in economies with income poverty are derived and briefly discussed. (JEL: I38)     

An unobserved component model for multi-rate forecasting of telephone call demand: the design of a forecasting support system

An Unobserved Components (UC) Model based on an enhanced version of the Dynamic Harmonic Regression model, including new multi-rate and modulated cycle procedures, is used to develop a customised package for forecasting and signal extraction applied to hourly telephone call numbers made to Barclaycard plc. service centres, with a forecasting horizon of up to several weeks in advance. The paper outlines both the methodological and algorithmic aspects of the modelling, forecasting and signal extraction procedures, including the design and implementation of forecasting support software with a specially designed Graphical User Interface within the ^® computing environment. The forecasting performance is evaluated comprehensively in comparison with the well-known seasonal ARIMA approach.     

Output complexity, environmental conditions, and the efficiency of municipalities

Over the last few years, many studies have analyzed the efficiency of local governments in different countries. An accurate definition of their output bundles—i.e., the services and facilities they provide to their constituencies—is essential to this research. However, several difficulties emerge in this task. First, since in most cases the law only establishes the minimum amount of services and facilities to provide, it may well be the case that some municipalities go beyond the legal minimum and, consequently, might have an uncertain effect on efficiency when compared to other municipalities which stick to the legal minimum. Second, municipalities face very different environmental conditions, which raises some doubts about the plausibility of an unconditional analysis. This study tackles these problems by proposing an analysis in which the efficiency of municipalities is evaluated after splitting them into clusters according to various criteria (output mix, environmental conditions, level of powers). We perform our estimations using order-m frontiers, given their robustness to outliers and immunity to the curse of dimensionality. We provide an application to Spanish municipalities, and results show that both output mix and, more especially, environmental conditions, should be controlled for, since efficiency differences between municipalities in different groups are notable.