Unit roots and persistence in the nominal interest rate: a confirmatory analysis applied to the OECD

Abstract.  This paper investigates the stochastic properties of long-term and short-term nominal interest rates for the OECD over the post-war era. For that purpose, we employ univariate unit root tests as well as panel unit root and stationarity tests that explicitly allow for cross-sectional dependence. Overall, we find overwhelming evidence that the nominal interest rate contains a unit root, which may be driven by a stochastic common factor. The computation of half-lives through impulse-response functions also points to a high degree of persistence. This has important implications for the cointegration analysis of the Fisher equation, the uncovered interest parity, and the term structure.     

Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction

Due to the size and cyclicality of construction, a premium is placed on accurately predicting nonresidential construction trends, particularly at turning points in the construction cycle. Given that construction decisions are made by hundreds of thousands of businesses, nonprofit institutions, and government organizations, it is extremely difficult to get comprehensive information on building plans. However, since architects design the overwhelming majority of nonresidential construction projects, gathering information on billings at architecture firms provides leading information on future construction trends. Statistical analysis demonstrates that information provided by architecture firms on trends in their billings is highly correlated with the eventual nonresidential construction activity, with leads of up to one year. JEL Classification C430, L700     

Questioning the empirical basis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: New evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross-dependence

This paper investigates the time series properties of per capita CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP levels for a sample of 86 countries over the period 1960-2000. For that purpose, we employ a state-of-the-art panel stationarity test which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Our analysis renders clear-cut evidence that per capita GDP levels are nonstationary for the world as a whole while per capita CO₂ is found to be regime-wise trend stationary. The analysis of country-groups shows that for Africa and Asia, per capita CO₂ is best described as nonstationary, while per capita GDP appears stationary around a broken trend. In addition, we find evidence of regime-wise trend stationarity in both variables for the country-groups consisting of America, Europe and Oceania. The results of our analysis carry important implications for the statistical modelling of the Environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂, since the differing order of integration in both variables for the world as a whole and for Africa and Asia calls into question the validity of panel cointegration techniques which assume that both variables are nonstationary and cointegrated with one another. Cointegration techniques would not be appropriate either for the case of America, Europe and Oceania which are characterised by per capita GDP and CO₂ emissions being stationary around a broken trend. Similar conclusions are reached when we analyse country-groups based on levels of development. Failure to properly characterise the time series properties of the data by not controlling for an unknown number of structural breaks and for cross-sectional dependence could be responsible for the fragility and lack of robustness surrounding the estimation of environmental Kuznets curves.     

Risky arbitrage,asset prices,and externalities

We introduce a no-risky-arbitrage price condition (NRAP) for asset market models allowing both unbounded short sales and externalities such as trading volume. We then demonstrate that NRAP is sufficient for the existence of competitive equilibrium in the presence of externalities. Moreover, we show that if all risky arbitrages are utility increasing, then NRAP characterizes competitive equilibrium in the presence of externalities. We are indebted to an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper. Page and Wooders are especially grateful to CERMSEM and EUREQua for their support and hospitality which made possible our collaboration.     

COMPETITIVE MARKET BEHAVIOR: CONVERGENCE AND ASYMMETRY IN THE EXPERIMENTAL DOUBLE AUCTION

We conducted a large number of controlled continuous double auction experiments to reproduce and stress-test the phenomenon of convergence to competitive equilibrium under private information with decentralized trading feedback. Our main finding is that across a total of 104 markets (involving over 1,700 subjects), convergence occurs after a handful of trading periods. Initially, however, there is an inherent asymmetry that favors buyers, typically resulting in prices below equilibrium levels. Analysis of over 80,000 observations of individual bids and asks helps identify empirical ingredients contributing to the observed phenomena including higher levels of aggressiveness initially among buyers than sellers.     

Innovation and productivity in agricultural firms: evidence from a country-wide farm-level innovation survey

ABSTRACT

The literature on the links between innovation and productivity at the firm level in agriculture is almost nonexistent. In this paper, we analyze the factors behind the innovation effort of farms and the impact that innovation effort has on farm’s productivity, exploiting a unique farm-level agricultural innovation survey carried out in Uruguay. The results indicate that farm size, cooperation with other agents to perform R&D, the education of the owner of the farm, the participation of foreign capital and the existence of links with other organizations, in particular scientific, horizontal and vertical ones, are positively correlated with innovation effort. Public and private financial support are not clearly linked with innovation effort. The innovation effort has a positive effect on farm’s productivity. Some heterogeneities across industries in agriculture are found.     

Retrospective analysis of patients with advanced or metastatic gastric cancer in Colombia

Abstract

Aims: To assess patient and disease characteristics, treatment patterns, and associated costs in patients with advanced or metastatic gastric cancer (A/MGC) in Colombia, in both the public and private hospitals.

Materials and methods: A total of 145 patients who had received first-line chemotherapy treatment (platinum analog and/or a fluoropyrimidine) and were followed for at least 3 months after the last administration of a first-line cytotoxic agent were eligible for inclusion. Case-report forms were elaborated based on the patients’ medical records from three Colombian hospitals. Estimates of treatment costs were calculated using unit costs from the participating hospitals.

Results: Of the 145 patients, more than half (64.83%) were male, 79.56% were diagnosed with metastatic stage IV disease (mean age = 58.14?years). Prior to MGC diagnosis, 31.71% of the patients being operated on received a total gastrectomy; 66.9% of the patients received a doublet therapy, of which 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) in combination with cisplatin was the standard treatment (14%), followed by combination with leucovorin (12%). Only around 10% of the patients responded to first-line treatment. Out of 41.38% of the patients who received a second-line treatment, 71.67% were still administered a platinum analog and/or fluoropyrimidine. During the follow-up period, 52% of the patients progressed and 20% achieved stable disease. Best supportive care mostly consisted of outpatient visits after last line-therapy (72.41%), palliative radiotherapy (18.6%), and surgery (37.2%).

Limitations and conclusions: Gastric cancer is one of the main causes of cancer-related death in Colombia, as most of the patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage, when prognosis is poor. Treatment patterns are highly heterogeneous. Second-line treatments were mostly initiated with paclitaxel, capecitabine, irinotecan, or cisplatin.     

Semi-parametric estimation of American option prices

We introduce a novel semi-parametric estimator of American option prices in discrete time. The specification is based on a parameterized stochastic discount factor and is nonparametric w.r.t. the historical dynamics of the Markovian state variables. The historical transition density estimator minimizes a distance built on the Kullback–Leibler divergence from a kernel transition density, subject to the no-arbitrage restrictions for a non-defaultable bond, the underlying asset and some American option prices. We use dynamic programming to make explicit the nonlinear restrictions on the Euclidean and functional parameters coming from option data. We study asymptotic and finite sample properties of the estimators.