Information technology today and tomorrow

This article discusses the innovations that have occurred in information technologies, which have led to the development of ‘intelligent’ electronics- based systems such as robots and computer-controlled tools. The author analyses the debate that has arisen surrounding the production and use of these systems, relating them to employment levels. He considers the future of industry and the economy, which will both see great changes in their structure as intelligent machines become ubiquitous.     

The post-war transformation of West Germany’s economy: A model for the GDR?

The unification of the two German states within a relatively short period of time now appears inevitable. Yet there is no historical precedent for a successful transformation from a socialist to a market economy. Doubts have been voiced by some as to whether such a transformation is possible. The following article compares the situation facing the GDR today with that facing the Federal Republic in 1948 and examines the conclusions to be drawn from this comparison.     

Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be relevant. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 470–488.     

A Theoretical Perspective on Multilateral Agreements on Investment*

Why do we observe some developing countries objecting to the prospect of a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), even though they have been keen to liberalize investment in preferential agreements in recent years? In this paper, we analyze the issue of MAI implementation and assess the welfare consequences of such kind of agreements. In our model, participation to MAI involves a tradeoff between less rent extraction from multinational firms (MNEs) and more abundant FDI inflows. At equilibrium, either all countries enter MAI, or all countries stay out, or only some of them enter. Coordination problems may induce multiple equilibria: the three types of equilibria may coexist. So, the implementation of MAI may depend not only on structural factors but also on the general “political climate.” When all countries join MAI, world welfare is maximized because this minimizes the hold‐up problem faced by MNEs and stimulates investment. However, in an asymmetric world, welfare gains are not guaranteed for all countries.     

Special economic zones in the People’s Republic of China

By setting up a number of special economic zones, i.e. clearly demarcated regions regulated by special commercial legislation, the Chinese leadership intended, after a period of economic isolation, to integrate China more closely into the international division of labour and to stimulate production by using foreign capital and technology. Have the special economic zones so far been able to live up to expectations? What are the prospects for the future?     

Monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate

This paper investigates how the implementation of monetary policy affects the dynamics and the volatility of the federal funds rate. Since the early 1980s, the most important changes in the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy refer to the role of the federal funds rate target and the reserve requirement system. We show that the improved communication and transparency regarding the federal funds rate target has significantly increased the Fed’s influence on the federal funds rate since 1994. By contrast, the declining role of required reserves in the US has contributed to higher federal funds rate volatility. Our results suggest that the introduction of remunerated required reserves will further enhance the controllability of the federal funds rate.