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111.
Using data on corporate default experience in the U.S. and market rates of CDX index and tranche swaps of various maturities, we estimate reduced-form models of correlated default timing in the CDX High Yield and Investment Grade portfolios under actual and risk-neutral probabilities. The striking contrast between the estimated processes followed by the actual and risk-neutral arrival intensities of defaults, and between the parameters governing the actual and risk-neutral dynamics of the risk-neutral intensities, indicates the presence of substantial default risk premia in CDX swap market rates. The effects of risk premia on swap rates covary strongly across maturities, and depend on general stock market volatility and several measures of credit spreads. Large moves in the effects of these premia on swap rates have natural interpretations in terms of economic and financial market developments during the sample period, April 2004 to October 2007. Our results suggest that a large portion of the movements in CDX swap market rates observed during the sample period may be caused by changing attitudes toward correlated default risk rather than changes in the economic factors affecting the actual risk of clustered defaults, which ultimately governs swap payoffs.  相似文献   
112.
Using restricted Census microdata that link households to the Census block in which they live, this paper re-examines the question of whether racial differences in sociodemographic characteristics can explain observed levels of racial segregation. We develop a simple measurement framework designed to make use of the rich joint distribution of individual and neighborhood characteristics that these data provide, analyzing segregation patterns in the San Francisco Bay Area. The results indicate that racial differences in the collective set of characteristics we consider do have the potential to explain a considerable amount of the observed segregation, although more so for Asians and especially Hispanics than whites and blacks. Different sociodemographic factors emerge as potentially important for each race.  相似文献   
113.
This paper studies the problem of an uninformed decision maker who acquires expert advice prior to making a decision. I show that it is less costly to hire partisan agents than impartial agents, especially under advocacy, and that the decision maker prefers partisan advocacy to other forms of institutions. I also extend the literature, originating with Dewatripont and Tirole ( 1999 ), to a setting with contracts that condition on information provided and not just the decision made.  相似文献   
114.
This paper analyzes the maximum likelihood estimation for vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility. The stochastic volatility is modeled following Uhlig (1997). The asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate is discussed under mild regularity conditions. The maximum likelihood estimate can be obtained via an iterative method. In that case, the maximum likelihood estimate becomes the iteratively reweighted least squares estimate analyzed in Rubin (1983). The iteratively reweighted least squares estimate is computationally much simpler than the Bayesian method offered by Uhlig (1997).  相似文献   
115.
This paper examines whether inflation targeting (IT) influences purchasing power parity (PPP) by a bias correction approach under cross-sectional dependence. The recursive mean adjustment (RMA) method proposed by So and Shin (1999) and Shin and So (2001) is employed to correct a downward bias in half-life estimates of real exchange rates. More importantly, the empirical results show that IT lowers variability of real exchange rates and plays an important role in providing favorable evidence for long-run PPP.  相似文献   
116.
This paper analyzes reporting errors in crime data to see how they impact econometric estimates, particularly of the key relationship between inequality and crime. Criminal victimization surveys of 140,000 respondents in 37 industrial, transition and developing countries are used. Comparing the crimes experienced by these respondents with those reported to the police, non-random and mean-reverting errors are apparent. Time-varying factors affect the propensity of victims to report crimes to the police, undermining the use of country-specific fixed effects as a means of dealing with measurement error in official crime data. These errors substantially attenuate both cross-sectional and panel estimates of the partial correlation between inequality and crime.  相似文献   
117.
A true measure of input substitution associated with exogenous changes in input quantities requires that the output level be held constant. To this effect, this study presents the Antonelli elasticity of complementarity characterised by the distance function. The more common Hicks elasticity of complementarity assumes that marginal cost is constant and hence does not capture pure substitution effects. The two elasticities of complementarity are related to inverse demand systems and are shown to be equivalent under constant returns to scale. A framework for estimating the Antonelli elasticity from the uncompensated demand system is presented. Estimation results reveal substantial bias of input substitutability with the use of Hicks' measure.  相似文献   
118.
With the evolution of the Web and development of web-based search engines, online searching has become a common method for obtaining information. Given this popularity, the question arises as to how much time people save by using search engines for their information needs compared to offline sources, as well as how online searching affects both search experiences and search outcomes. Using a random sample of queries from a major search engine and a sample of reference questions from the Internet Public Library (IPL), we conduct a real-effort experiment to compare online and offline search experiences and outcomes. We find that participants are significantly more likely to find an answer on the Web (100 %), compared to offline searching (between 87 % and 90 %). Restricting our analysis to the set of questions in which participants find answers in both treatments, a Web search takes on average 7 (9) minutes, whereas the corresponding offline search takes 22 (19) minutes for a search-engine (IPL) question. Furthermore, while raters judge library sources to be significantly more trustworthy and authoritative than the corresponding Web sources, they judge Web sources as significantly more relevant. Balancing all factors, we find that the overall source quality is not significantly different between the two treatments for the set of search-engine questions. However, for IPL questions, we find that non-Web sources are judged to have significantly higher overall quality than the corresponding Web sources. In comparison, for factual questions, Web search results are significantly more likely to be correct (66 % vs. 43 %). Lastly, post-search questionnaires reveal that participants find online searching more enjoyable than offline searching.  相似文献   
119.
We introduce a counterfactual analysis of banks mergers, combining the pre-merger equilibrium setting with post-merger environmental characteristics, while accounting for endogenously propagated changes in market structure. Using this procedure we are able to estimate the effects on loan flows and interest rates that would have been observed if the pre-merger equilibrium was not altered. Results are obtained for firms, households, and banks inside and outside the merging circles separately. We find that mergers increased firms’ access to credit, but had an opposite effect on households and led to a widespread decrease in interest rates.  相似文献   
120.
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and growth volatility through simultaneous equations system. By employing the identification through heteroskedasticity method of Rigobon (Rev Econ Stat 85:777–792, 2003) and using a panel of 158 countries over the period 1960–2010, we find that output volatility is detrimental to economic growth, suggesting that stabilization policies to mitigate short-run economic fluctuations contribute to long-run economic growth. And economic growth accelerates output variability, supporting the feedback effects from growth to the volatility. The evidence is robust to a number of sensitivity tests.  相似文献   
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