Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?

In this paper, we propose a quantitative measure for inflation expectations based on consumer survey data. Thereafter, we proceed to testing the rationality assumption. This issue is of noteworthy interest in its own as it is commonly assumed in the theoretical modelling literature that the rational expectations hypothesis holds. This analysis is conducted for the euro area as a whole, as well as for several member countries, using a sample covering the last two decades. Moreover, we also assess if the conclusions hold when one focuses on the post-euro introduction period.     

Supporting the Endogenous Relationship Between Well-Being and Employment for US Individuals

We test the existence of an endogenous relationship between well-being and employment for US individuals. To that end, we use a simultaneous equation generalized Probit model applied to four recent waves of the National Health Interview Survey (1997–2000). Our results do not enable us to accept the hypothesis that there is a significant effect from employment status to subjective well-being. In contrast, we provide evidence that suggest that well-being is positively correlated to the probability of having a job.

The choice between joint ventures and acquisitions in foreign direct investments: The role of partial acquisitions and accrued experience

In order to avoid the liability of foreignness, firms invest in foreign countries pooling their own resources with those of local firms. This combination of assets may take place through joint ventures or acquisitions. When facing the need to choose between these two entry modes, managers find that there are two critical factors that have received little attention in previous research: the existence of different types of acquisitions—full acquisitions, pure partial acquisitions, and shared partial acquisitions—and the role of the experience accrued by the investing firm in carrying out investments through a particular entry mode. Both factors, as well as their managerial implications, are analyzed in this article. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Participation and Consumption of Illegal Drugs among Adolescents

This paper identifies the determinants affecting the adolescent populations' decision regarding whether or not to consume illegal drugs. The authors estimate a simultaneous Type II Tobit model for each sample substance, including marijuana, LSD, amphetamines, cocaine, volatile substances, and heroine. The data are drawn from three Spanish Surveys on Drug Use in the School Population conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998. The results indicate that illegal drug use among Spanish adolescents is clearly determined by economic variables. It is similarly determined by other sociodemographic variables, such as personal habits, family environment, and the receipt of information regarding the negative consequences of drug use. This paper was partially written while José Alberto Molina was Visiting Researcher at the Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada-FEDEA (Madrid, Spain), to which he would like to express his thanks for the hospitality and facilities provided. The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful observations on an earlier version of this paper. Similarly, Namkee Ahn, as well as various participants at the XIX Spanish Health Economics Meeting (Zaragoza, Spain) and at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (Washington DC), have all offered valuable comments and suggestions. Finally, the authors would like to express their gratitude for the financial support provided by the Spanish Ministry of Education-CICYT and the European Commission (Project FEDER 2FD97-2057). The usual disclaimer applies.     

Renewable resource market obeying difference equations: Stable points,stable cycles,and Chaos (1991)

In this paper, the basic principles of the Chaos Theory are applied to dynamic systems involving renewable resource and harvest. The results of simulations are presented regarding harvested resource stock time path. It is shown that stationary steady-state is only one of many different possible outcomes of bioeconomic equilibrium. The varying impacts that different management policies have on an unstable dynamic system are also studied. It is shown that in unstable resource systems, the effects of some policy measures will be very different from the ones obtained through traditional resource analysis. It also shows that policies which induce a stabilizing effect in stock time series will generally provide greater welfare gains. The results are illustrated by two market examples.     

Forecasting inflation through a bottom-up approach: How bottom is bottom?

The aim of this paper is to assess inflation forecast accuracy over the short-term horizon, using Consumer Price Index (CPI) disaggregated data, through a bottom-up approach. That is, aggregating forecasts is compared with aggregate forecasting. A new dimension to the question of to bottom-up or not is introduced by considering different levels of data disaggregation, namely a higher disaggregation level than the one considered up to now. This raises modelling issues that one has to cope with. In particular, it is suggested the use of a new strand of models, the Factor-Augmented SARIMA models. Considering as case-study the Portuguese one, we find an inverse relationship between the forecast horizon and the amount of information underlying the forecast, when minimizing the RMSFE.     

Why is PIN priced?

Recent empirical work suggests that a proxy for the probability of informed trading (PIN) is an important determinant of the cross-section of average returns. This paper examines whether PIN is priced because of information asymmetry or because of other liquidity effects that are unrelated to information asymmetry. Our starting point is a model that decomposes PIN into two components, one related to asymmetric information and one related to illiquidity. In a two-pass Fama-MacBeth [1973. Risk, return, and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy 81, 607–636] regression, we show that the PIN component related to asymmetric information is not priced, while the PIN component related to illiquidity is priced. We conclude, therefore, that liquidity effects unrelated to information asymmetry explain the relation between PIN and the cross-section of expected returns.     

Dimensions of service quality and satisfaction in healthcare: a patient’s satisfaction index

The assessment of patients’ satisfaction levels, and the knowledge of what factors influence satisfaction are very important for healthcare managers as it influences healthcare results and healthcare institutions financial results. The objective of this research is to analyse patients’ satisfaction levels in a set of four Portuguese primary Healthcare Centres, through the estimation of a satisfaction index, which simultaneously explains which dimensions of healthcare quality influence that satisfaction the most. For that, a conceptual model of patients’ satisfaction in primary healthcare was tested using data from a sample of 414 patients. Partial Least Squares path modelling (PLS) was the technique chosen to evaluate the proposed model. The results show that patients’ satisfaction is 60.887 in a scale from 1 to 100, revealing only a medium level of satisfaction. It is also possible to conclude that the most important positive effects on satisfaction are the ones linked to the patient/doctor relationship, the quality of facilities and the interaction with administrative staff, by this order.