Momentum in Residential Real Estate

This paper examines whether there is return momentum in residential real estate in the U.S. Case and Shiller (American economic review 79(1):128–137, 1989) document evidence of positive return correlation in four U.S. cities. Similar to Jegadeesh and Titman’s (Journal of finance 56:699–720, 1993) stock market momentum paper, we construct long-short zero cost investment portfolios from more than 380 metropolitan areas based on their lagged returns. Our results show that momentum of returns in the U.S. residential housing is statistically significant and economically meaningful during our 1983 to 2008 sample period. On average, zero cost investment portfolios that buy past winning housing markets and short sell past losing markets earn up to 8.92% annually. Our results are robust to different sub-periods and more pronounced in the Northeast and West regions. While zero cost portfolios of residential real estate indices is not a tradable strategy, the implications of our results can be useful for builders, potential home owners, mortgage originators and traders of real estate options.     

Taking Stock: Equity-Based Compensation and the Evolution of Managerial Ownership

We investigate the impact of stock-based compensation on managerial ownership. We find that equity compensation succeeds in increasing incentives of lower-ownership managers, but higher-ownership managers negate much of its impact by selling previously owned shares. When executives exercise options to acquire stock, nearly all of the shares are sold. Our results illuminate dynamic aspects of managerial ownership arising from divergent goals of boards of directors, who use equity compensation for incentives, and managers, who respond by selling shares for diversification. The findings cast doubt on the frequent and important theoretical assumption that managers cannot hedge the risks of these awards.     

Stock Price Behavior Around Announcements of Write-Offs

Review of Accounting Studies - Is it plausible that important corporate events such as write-offs, averaging around 20% of firms' market values, are associated with stock-price responses of...     

A job to believe in: recruitment in the Scottish voluntary sector

The voluntary sector is an important source of employment in the UK and is increasingly providing services previously provided by the public sector. However, the ability of the sector to provide such services is dependent on the quantity and quality of suitable labour. This article examines recruitment issues in seven case‐study voluntary organisations offering social care in Scotland. Interviews were conducted with 137 managers and employees in these organisations. In addition, to assess potential labour supply, interviews and focus groups were conducted with careers advisers and potential employees. The findings suggest that, with a tightening labour market, uncompetitive pay and misconceptions about the sector, recruitment is a problem. However, job satisfaction is high for current employees, and potential employees whose values are commensurate with the sector might be attracted. The findings thus have relevance not just for the case‐study organisations, but for HRM in the voluntary sector generally.     

Contagion and risk premia in the amplification of crisis: Evidence from Asian names in the global CDS market

In the turmoil of 2007–2009, troubles in a small segment of the US mortgage market escalated into a crisis of global proportions. A striking feature of the crisis is the contagion that hit Asia. In a region where direct exposures to problem mortgages were minimal, credit spreads for major borrowers widened even more than they did in Europe and the United States. We argue that the contagion was part of an amplification mechanism driven by valuation losses caused by the bursting of a global credit bubble. The valuation losses stemmed not so much from a reassessment of credit risks as from a global repricing of these risks. It was this repricing that was the main channel for contagion into Asian credit (and equity) markets. For empirical evidence, we analyze fluctuations in credit default swap (CDS) spreads and expected default frequencies (EDFs) for major Asian borrowers. We find that valuation losses on CDS contracts for these Asian borrowers arose in part from movements in global and region-specific risk pricing factors as well as from revisions to expected losses from defaults.     

Indirect management of invasive species through bio-controls: A bioeconomic model of salmon and alewife in Lake Michigan

Invasive species are typically viewed as an economic bad because they cause economic and ecological damages, and can be difficult to control. When direct management is limited, another option is indirect management via bio-controls. Here management is directed at the bio-control species population (e.g., supplementing this population through stocking) with the aim that, through ecological interactions, the bio-control species will control the invader. We focus on stocking salmon to control invasive alewives in Lake Michigan. Salmon are valuable to recreational anglers, and alewives are their primary food source in Lake Michigan. We illustrate how stocking salmon can be used to control alewife, while at the same time alewife can be turned from a net economic bad (having a negative shadow value) into a net economic good (having a positive shadow value) by providing valuable ecosystem services that support the recreational fishery. Using optimal control theory, we solve for a stocking program that maximizes social welfare. Optimal stocking results in cyclical dynamics. We link concepts of natural capital and indirect management, population dynamics, non-convexities, and multiple-use species and demonstrate that species interactions are critical to the values that humans derive from ecosystems. This research also provides insight into the management of salmon fisheries in the Great Lakes.     

Economic evaluation of a pharmacogenomic multi-gene panel test to optimize anti-hypertension therapy: simulation study

Abstract

Aims: Hypertension is the strongest modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease, affecting 80 million individuals in the US and responsible for ～360,000 deaths, at total annual costs of $93.5 billion. Antihypertension therapies guided by single genotypes are clinically more effective and may avert more adverse events than the standard of care of layering anti-hypertensive drug therapies, thus potentially decreasing costs. This study aimed to determine the economic benefits of the implementation of multi-gene panel guided therapies for hypertension from the payer perspective within a 3-year time horizon.

Materials and methods: A simulation analysis was conducted for a panel of 10 million insured patients categorized clinically as untreated, treated but uncontrolled, and treated and controlled over a 3-year treatment period. Inputs included research data; empirical data from a 11-gene panel with known functional, heart, blood vessel, and kidney genotypes; and therapy efficacy and safety estimates from literature. Cost estimates were categorized as related to genetic testing, evaluation and management, medication, or adverse events.

Results: Multi-gene panel guided therapy yielding savings of $6,256,607,500 for evaluation and management, $908,160,000 for medications, and $37,467,508,716 for adverse events, after accounting for incremental genetic testing costs of $2,355,540,000. This represents total 3-year savings of $42,276,736,216, or a 47% reduction, and 3-year savings of $4,228 and annual savings of $1,409 per covered patient.

Conclusions: A precision medicine approach to genetically guided therapy for hypertension patients using a multi-gene panel reduced total 3-year costs by 47%, yielding savings exceeding $42.3 billion in an insured panel of 10 million patients. Importantly, 89% of these savings are generated by averting specific adverse events and, thus, optimizing choice of therapy in function of both safety and efficacy.     

Joint Management of Wildlife and Livestock Disease

We analyze a bioeconomic model of a multiple-host disease problem involving wildlife and livestock. The social planner’s choices include targeted (i.e., infectious versus healthy) livestock harvests, non-targeted wildlife harvests, environmental habitat variables, and on-farm biosecurity to prevent cross-species contacts. The model is applied to bovine tuberculosis among Michigan white-tailed deer and cattle. We find optimal controls may target the livestock sector more stringently when the livestock sector exhibits low value relative to the wildlife sector. This is in contrast with the conventional wisdom on the issue that controls should primarily target wildlife species that serve as disease reservoirs.     

Better together: Trait competitiveness and competitive psychological climate as antecedents of salesperson organizational commitment and sales performance

This study assesses the direct and interactive effects of trait competitiveness and competitive psychological climate on organizational commitment and sales performance using data collected from industrial salespeople and company records. Findings indicate that the positive impact of trait competitiveness on sales performance is contingent upon a highly competitive psychological climate, helping to explain inconsistent findings in the literature and underscoring the need for firms to manage the fit between salespeople and organizational culture. Additionally, the study reveals continuance commitment’s negative moderation of the affective commitment–sales performance relationship. Taken together, the model reveals an interesting process such that managers should recruit salespeople with high trait competitiveness and foster a competitive climate internally to generate the best sales performance outcomes.