Considerazioni generali sull’impostazione bayesiana di problemi non parametrici

Si fanno alcune considerazioni di natura generale sui problemi statistici non parametrici e sulla loro risoluzione dal punto di vista bayesiano. Dopo aver posto in evidenza l’importanza delle medie associative come strumenti di analisi statistica dei suddetti problemi, ci si propone di determinare la distribuzione iniziale e finale di una generica media associativa nell’ipotesi che le misure di probabilità assegnabili al fenomeno in esame siano rette da un processo di Dirichlet. Ricordate le proprietà fondamentali di tale processo, si rinvia la risoluzione del problema posto alla seconda parte del lavoro.     

Trade and agroindustrialization in developing countries: trends and policy impacts

There have been important changes in the international trade of processed and high-value added food products from developing countries over the past several decades. One of them has been the emergence of oilseeds and fruits and vegetables, replacing traditional products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the main exports from developing countries. Another trend has been the collapse of African agroindustrial exports and the increase of exports from Asia. The paper highlights key trends, and explores possible reasons for the trends, focusing on trade policies in less-developed countries (LDCs) and developed countries (DCs). The paper argues that national trade policies and other economic policies appear to have been relatively supportive of agroindustrial production and exports in Asia. In contrast, policies have had more mixed effects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and seem to have been just one component in a larger array of forces inhibiting economic development in Africa. The performance of agroindustrial production and exports from LDCs may be now more dependent than ever on the completion of reforms in the agricultural trade policies of DCs. For Africa, however, a more supportive international environment and better macroeconomic and trade policies will not be enough to ensure a thriving agroindustrial sector within a broader process of economic development until military confrontations stop.     

Democracy, collective action and intra-elite conflict

We analyze a model where there is uncertainty about the future power of two ex-ante symmetric elites to appropriate surplus, and ex-ante surplus sharing agreements are not binding. We show that in an oligarchy, the stronger elite appropriates the entire available surplus, whereas a democracy results in a more balanced surplus allocation between the two elites. In a democracy, the newly enfranchised non-elite organize to act collectively, so that the weaker elite can credibly threaten to form a coalition with the organized non-elite against the stronger elite. Such a threat ensures that the more balanced surplus sharing proposal chosen by majority voting is renegotiation-proof. Therefore, sufficiently risk-averse elites unanimously choose democracy as a form of insurance against future imbalances in relative power. We emphasize that franchise extension to, and low cost of organizing collective political activity for, the non-elite are both necessary features of a democracy. Our formal analysis can account for the stylized facts that emerge from a comparative analysis of Indian and Western European democracies.     

Bridging “quality” and “quantity” in the study of criminal action

This article summarises the main findings of a study on the narrative construction of deviant actions which focused both on the contents and the structures of the narrative accounts provided by criminals. The research was conducted by collecting narrative interviews. These involved 34 individuals detained in two penal institutions in Rome. These accounts are typically constructed in a non-investigative context. Their exploration is mainly qualitative, but our aim here concern the quantitative sight of qualitative data and viceversa. The project was focused to find if there are any differences in the narrative accounts provided by different offenders, classified according to the type of crime they committed and their experience in the area of deviance. All interviews were analysed using a qualitative data analysis software and taking the “Evaluation model” as a reference. Participants were divided into three groups according to their criminal experience and into four groups according to the crime they committed. The results show that there are important differences in the way a crime is reconstructed by offenders with different criminal history. The paper also proposes solutions and innovative strategies to deal with quantification and qualitative data.     

New development: Where there's a will,there's a way—acting beyond cutbacks

A sustainable solution to the recent financial crisis requires a sea-change in governments' thinking, rather than just cutting expenses. Governments need to re-examine the managerial and cultural factors that lie beyond the crisis: the way budgets are prepared, the (lack of) strategic management, the limited room left for innovation, and excessive reliance on public entities for the solution of social problems.     

Procedural fairness in lotteries assigning initial roles in a dynamic setting

We extend the study of procedural fairness in three new directions. Firstly, we focus on lotteries determining the initial roles in a two-person game. One of the roles carries a potential advantage over the other. All the experimental literature has thus far focused on lotteries determining the final payoffs of a game. Secondly, we modify procedural fairness in a dynamic—i.e. over several repetitions of a game—as well as in a static—i.e. within a single game-sense. Thirdly, we analyse whether assigning individuals a minimal chance of achieving an advantaged position is enough to make them willing to accept substantially more inequality. We find that procedural fairness matters under all of these accounts. Individuals clearly respond to the degree of fairness in assigning initial roles, appraise contexts that are dynamically fair more positively than contexts that are not, and are generally more willing to accept unequal outcomes when they are granted a minimal opportunity to acquire the advantaged position. Unexpectedly, granting full equality of opportunity does not lead to the highest efficiency.     

Monopoly regulation under asymmetric information: prices versus quantities

We compare two instruments to regulate a monopoly that has private information about its demand or costs: fixing either the price or quantity. For each instrument, we consider sophisticated (screening) and simple (bunching) mechanisms. We characterize the optimal mechanisms and compare their welfare performance. With unknown demand and increasing marginal costs, the sophisticated price mechanism dominates that of quantity, whereas the sophisticated quantity mechanism may prevail when marginal costs decrease. The simple price mechanism dominates that of quantity when marginal costs decrease, but the opposite may arise if marginal costs increase. With unknown costs, both instruments are equivalent.     

Drinking cheaply: the demand for basic wine in Italy

The wine market has evolved dramatically over the last three decades. The premium wine segment has expanded significantly to the detriment of basic wines. Nevertheless, in traditional wine producing and consuming countries, inexpensive wines still account for a large market share, both in volume and value. Marketing strategies for such wines are changing in an attempt to tap this increasingly crowded market segment. Despite its importance, the basic wine segment has not been studied in‐depth and is often assumed to have no product differentiation. This paper tried to ascertain the existence of a possible degree of heterogeneity within nonpremium wines and to measure, by means of elasticity computation, the relationships among categories of wines aggregated with criteria that go beyond price. A demand system (censored QUAIDS) was estimated, using a statistically representative panel of 6,773 Italian households, to see to what extent, if any, substitution occurs in home consumption of basic wines, which is the main channel of distribution of inexpensive wines in Italy. Although price is an important lever in supply policies, our results also suggest the importance of packaging, such as carton as an alternative to glass.