The Influence of Constraints and Self-Efficacies on Participation in Regular Active Recreation

This study examined the ways in which perceived constraints and self-efficacies associated with participation in active recreation influenced Hong Kong and Australian university students' interest, intention, and participation in regular active recreation. The study indicated that perceived constraints have weak negative effects whereas self-efficacies have stronger positive effects on students' interest, intention, and participation in regular active recreation. Time efficacy, persistence efficacy, and activity efficacy emerged as important indirect motivators of active recreation engagement. The influences of constraints and self-efficacies on active recreation participation mainly occurred indirectly through adjustments in participation interest and intention.     

Reforming the reform: changing roles for accounting and management in the Italian health care sector

This paper examines the ways in which accounting has intervened in the process of reforming the original ‘reform’ of the Italian health care system. By stepping into an ongoing process accounting has been asked not only to foster efficiency, effectiveness and value for money, but to correct as well the ‘degeneration’ of the original reform, which subjected health care delivery to ‘democratic’ scrutiny and political control. The call for a greater accountability in the use of public resources has been thus interpreted as both a mechanism of surveillance and control and a way to resist the ‘over-politicization’ of health sector management together with the abuses, scandals and fraudulent behaviour it induced. In seeking to interpret the specificity of the Italian experience, the paper suggests that the range of ‘the contexts in which accounting operates’ should be broadened in order to gain a deeper understanding of its roles in those institutions, such as health care systems, which play a crucial role in modern societies. In order to move in this direction systematic and empirically grounded cross-national comparisons are called for, since, although accounting and management are involved in virtually all attempts to redesign health care services, consequences are likely to be different when conditions of possibility differ at the outset.     

Implied Lévy volatility

We study the cause of large fluctuations in prices on the London Stock Exchange. This is done at the microscopic level of individual events, where an event is the placement or cancellation of an order to buy or sell. We show that price fluctuations caused by individual market orders are essentially independent of the volume of orders. Instead, large price fluctuations are driven by liquidity fluctuations, variations in the market's ability to absorb new orders. Even for the most liquid stocks there can be substantial gaps in the order book, corresponding to a block of adjacent price levels containing no quotes. When such a gap exists next to the best price, a new order can remove the best quote, triggering a large midpoint price change. Thus, the distribution of large price changes merely reflects the distribution of gaps in the limit order book. This is a finite size effect, caused by the granularity of order flow: in a market where participants place many small orders uniformly across prices, such large price fluctuations would not happen. We show that this also explains price fluctuations on longer timescales. In addition, we present results suggesting that the risk profile varies from stock to stock, and is not universal: lightly traded stocks tend to have more extreme risks.     

Is it a Timing or a Probability Effect? Four Simulations and an Application of Transition Rate Models to the Analysis of Unemployment Exit

Among the applications of event history analysis, in the last 10 years the lion's share has been played by proportional transition rate model. This type of models suffers from a major draw-back: it does not allow us to distinguish whether a covariate affects the event timing (the event occurs sooner/later) or the overall probability of the ultimate event occurrence (the chances of occurrence are constantly higher/lower). Thus, a positive/negative effect of a covariate found using a proportional transition rate model might reflect an acceleration/deceleration in the timing of the event and/or a high/low probability of the ultimate event occurrence (Yamaguchi, 1992). This paper shows how this problem can be reformulated in terms of the proportionality/non proportionality of the covariate effects. A twofold solution to disentangle the timing/probability problem is presented: this solution consists of a test of the proportionality of the covariate effects and a computation of the survival function at the end of the time interval studied. Two applications are discussed. The first one is based on four simulated processes. The second is based on an analysis of unemployment exit in Italy, with particular attention being paid to the effects of unemployment benefits. In the conclusion, implications for future applications of event history analysis are discussed.     

Yahoo!骑虎难下

唐骏认为。雅虎再次复兴的机会不大,虽然它有很多现金和很好的资源。但是它缺乏了创新的文化和动力,现在更像一个投资公司.     

Stock market reactions to announcements of the board of directors: evidence from Italy

The board of directors plays an important role in corporate governance. It is an internal mechanism that controls and monitors the actions of managers and aligns the utility functions between corporate owners and managers. The board of directors performs multiple functions that concern, for example, the replacement of the managers, financial policy, the preparation of strategic plans and other actions that affect the performance of the company. The board plays an important role since on the one hand it controls the actions of management and on the other it advises the management regarding the strategies to be adopted. In this study, 100 announcements regarding the appointment of the board of directors of 100 Italian listed companies during the period 2012–2014 are investigated. The results show a positive reaction within 20 days around the announcement date. In four of the six time windows, cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are positive and statistically significant. The positive reaction of the market would appear, however, to be linked more to the composition of the board of directors than to the size of the board of directors.     

The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

In this paper, we present the results of a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment (LtFE) where we eliciting short- as well as long-run expectations regarding the future price dynamics in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback. Comparing our results on short-run expectations with the LtFE literature, we prove that eliciting long-run expectations has no impact on the price dynamics nor on short-run expectations formation. In particular, we confirm that the Rational Expectation Equilibrium (REE) is a good benchmark only for the markets with negative feedback. Interestingly, our data show that while the term structure of the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations is convex in positive feedback markets, it is concave in negative feedback markets. Differences in the slope of the term structure stem from diverse degrees of uncertainty regarding the evolution of prices in the two feedback systems: (1) in the negative feedback system, the convergence of the price to the REE reflects a tendency for coordination of long-run expectations around the fundamental value; (2) conversely, oscillatory price dynamics observed in the positive feedback system is responsible for the diverging pattern of long-run expectations. Finally, we propose a new measure of heterogeneity of expectations based on the scaling of the dispersion of expectations over the forecasting horizon.

     

Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating portfolios of highly liquid stocks, we find that there are a large number of high-frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one-factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.