Whose wages do unions raise? A dynamic model of unionism and wage rate determination for young men

We estimate the union premium for young men over a period of declining unionization (1980–87) through a procedure which identifies the alternative sources of the endogeneity of union status. While we estimate the average increase in wages resulting from union employment to be in excess of 20% we find that the return to unobserved heterogeneity operating through union status is substantial and that the union premium is highly variable. We also find that the premium is sensitive to the form of sorting allowed in estimation. Moreover, the data are consistent with comparative advantage sorting. Our results suggest that the unobserved heterogeneity which positively contributes to the likelihood of union membership is associated with higher wages. We are unable, however, to determine whether this is due to the ability of these workers to extract monopoly rents or whether it reflects the more demanding hiring standards of employers faced by union wages. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In Pursuit of Time: Business Plan Sequencing,Duration and Intraentrainment Effects on New Venture Viability

In this study, we examine three under‐explored dimensions of the temporal relationship between formal written business plans and the achievement of new venture viability. First, we theorize and investigate the effects of plan sequencing; arguing that a business plan written early on in new venture development increases the prospects of venture viability. Second, we examine plan duration effects, and argue that there is a curvilinear relationship between spending time on a plan and achieving venture viability. Finally, we investigate plan intraentrainment effects (synchronization with other gestation activities). We theorize that if plans are synchronized with other gestation activities, venture viability is more likely. Using longitudinal data and controlling for truncation and endogeneity issues, we find that it is beneficial to plan early but that this is contingent on how long a founder spent on a plan and whether or not a plan is intraentrained with other gestation activities.     

The impact of habitual entrepreneurial experience on new firm closure outcomes

In this paper, we argue that it is difficult for habitual entrepreneurs to use their experiential knowledge to develop a more viable new firm than novice entrepreneurs. Hindered by the difficulty of disentangling how actions lead to outcomes in low predictive environments such as new firm settings; hampered by the novelty and uncertainty of new firm closure; and misguided by subjective beliefs about their ability, we contend that habitual entrepreneurs close their new firm just as quickly as novice entrepreneurs and are just as likely to go bankrupt. Using large-scale panel data that track new firm closure amongst 7400 new German firms, we find that the new firms run by habitual entrepreneurs close just as quickly as those run by novice entrepreneurs. We also find that habituals are just as likely as novices to see their new business go bankrupt.     

Farmer perception and valuation of seed quality: Evidence from bean and cowpea seed auctions in Tanzania and Ghana

Double blind field experiments and experimental auctions were conducted with bean and cowpea farmers in Tanzania and Ghana to gauge the relative demand for three types of seed products that differ in price and quality: certified, quality declared, and recycled. Whether the cost differential makes these seeds qualitatively different products as reflected in their perceived performance, and whether that translates into farmers’ willingness to pay price premiums, are the research questions addressed by this study. Results indicate that, all else equal, there were significant differences in the perceived quality of the seed products evaluated. Farmers were willing to pay significantly more for their higher rated seed relative to their lower rated seeds. However, for a majority of farmers the magnitude of the premium they are willing to pay for a higher quality seed is less than the current price differential between certified seed and grain. Research and policy implications of these results for legume seed system are discussed.     

Factors influencing adoption of conservation tillage in Australian cropping regions*

The purpose of this research is to improve understanding of conservation tillage adoption decisions by identifying key biophysical and socio‐economic factors influencing no‐till adoption by grain growers across four Australian cropping regions. The study is based on interviews with 384 grain growers using a questionnaire aimed at eliciting perceptions relating to a range of possible long‐ and short‐term agronomic interactions associated with the relative economic advantage of shifting to a no‐tillage cropping system. Together with other farm and farmer‐specific variables, a dichotomous logistic regression analysis was used to identify opportunities for research and extension to facilitate more rapid adoption decisions. The broader systems approach to considering conservation tillage adoption identified important determinants of adoption not associated with soil conservation and erosion prevention benefits. Most growers recognised the erosion‐reducing benefits of no‐till but it was not an important factor in explaining whether a grower was an adopter or non‐adopter. Perceptions associated with shorter‐term crop production benefits under no‐till, such as the relative effectiveness of pre‐emergent herbicides and the ability to sow crops earlier on less rainfall were influential. Employment of a consultant and increased attendance of cropping extension activities were strongly associated with no‐till adoption, confirming the information and learning‐intensive nature of adopting no‐till cropping systems.     

Dodd–Frank's impact on community-bank investment models: A Bayesian structural time series analysis

We use Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) methodology to test whether the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 (DF) caused changes in community bank business models. The BSTS methodology uses the pre-DF period to create synthetic counterfactuals for community-bank dependent variables of interest. In the post-DF period, the counterfactuals become predictions of the dependent variables had DF not been enacted. Comparing post-DF predicted versus actual dependent variables allows us to estimate the causal impact of DF on these variables of interest. We find that relative to assets, community banks significantly reduce their lending activities and significantly increase investment in securities and excess reserves.     

Enhancing claim classification with feature extraction from anomaly-detection-derived routine and peculiarity profiles

Usage-based insurance is becoming the new standard in vehicle insurance; it is therefore relevant to find efficient ways of using insureds' driving data. Applying anomaly detection (AD) to vehicles' trip summaries, we develop a method allowing to derive a “routine” and a “peculiarity” anomaly profile for each vehicle. To this end, AD algorithms are used to compute a routine and a peculiarity anomaly score for each trip a vehicle makes. The former measures the anomaly degree of the trip compared with the other trips made by the concerned vehicle, while the latter measures its anomaly degree compared with trips made by any vehicle. The resulting anomaly scores vectors are used as routine and peculiarity profiles. Features are then extracted from these profiles, for which we investigate the predictive power in the claim classification framework. Using real data, we find that features extracted from the vehicles' peculiarity profile improve the classification.     

Sterling's farewell symphony: The end of the Sterling Area revisited

When and why did Sterling Area countries stop holding sterling as the majority of their foreign exchange reserves? This paper takes a comparative approach to examine the relative importance of various determinants of adherence to sterling in its declining years as an international currency. Using an original cross-national panel dataset covering the period 1965–79, we conduct survival analysis which systematically evaluates a comprehensive set of economic and political factors, at the country level as well as in international relations, about when and why countries chose to diversify their reserves away from sterling. Our results highlight the significance of international transactional factors in influencing adherence to sterling, while the effects of British geopolitical retrenchment, Commonwealth cultural ties, and distributional issues were more ambiguous and sensitive to local conditions. We also find that domestic political and historical factors, such as democracy and imperial legacy, played a role in sterling's international unravelling. Finally, we use our results to examine the experience of individual sterling countries and their decisions to diversify.     

Correction to: Reformulating prospect theory to become a von Neumann–Morgenstern theory

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - The authors regret the following errors occurred in the original publication of the article. The corrected text has been presented with this erratum.     

Forward-Looking Belief Elicitation Enhances Intergenerational Beneficence

Environmental and Resource Economics - One of the challenges in managing the Earth’s common pool resources, such as a livable climate or the supply of safe drinking water, is to motivate...