An empirical examination of long-run purchasing power parity as theory of international commodity arbitrage

An empirical analysis of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) as a theory of international commodity arbitrage between UK and US prices and the sterling/US dollar exchange rate for the period 1975–1980 is presented. Econometric techniques concerning the cointegration of economic time series are applied to a sample of 35 manufactured commodities which in 1977 constituted approximately a quarter of the net output of all manufacturing industry in Great Britain. Our results are extremely unfavourable to the PPP hypothesis as a stable long-run proportionality between exchange rates and disaggregated prices.     

The Effects of Securitization on Mortgage Market Yields: A Cointegration Analysis

Securitization of the residential mortgage market has completely transformed the process of financing home loans in the U.S. over the last two decades. We examine the effects of securitization on yield spreads in the primary mortgage market. Cointegration techniques are employed to test the relationship between the increasing volume of mortgage securities over time and the yield spread on mortgage loan rates. We find that a 10% increase in the level of mortgage securitization as a proportion of total mortgage originations decreases yield spreads on home loans by as much as 20 basis points. Other results indicate that, while prepayment speed has a significant effect on mortgage yield spreads, default risk does not. We conclude that securitization of the residential mortgage market plays an important role in decreasing the cost of home loans.     

Quality uncertainty,brand reliance,and dissipative advertising

Consumers may have learned to generalize from usage experiences that nationally advertised, name-brand items tend to be higher in quality than unadvertised brands. Such generalization may have prompted the substitution of brand-name evaluations for search in quality assessments of nondurable experience goods. This paper offers theoretical arguments which suggest that if some consumers do not search, all firms in nondurable, experience goods markets can increase their profits if some substitute dissipative advertising (i.e., advertising which ignores information about product performance characteristics) of brand names for product quality enhancements. Undersearching by consumers invites firms to downgrade value in nondurable, experience goods markets. In support of the hypothesized substitution by consumers of brand-name evaluations for search in nondurable, experience goods markets, this paper reports results of a field experiment in which the influences on quality assessments of brand name and product composition were studied in two categories where dissipative advertising is heavily relied upon. Results suggest that branding is relied upon more heavily than search to assess quality, even when brand cues are inconsistent with actual quality levels and search is costless, suggesting that dissipative advertising can be extremely effective.     

Implementing organizational change in supply towards decentralization

This paper presents the findings from research in large companies investigating implementation issues faced by chief purchasing officers as their supply organization changed to greater decentralization. Once the decision was made to decentralize, responsibility for implementation was given to the chief purchasing officer (CPO). Firms changing their supply organization to a more decentralized structure faced a number of implementation issues, including the business unit concerns, role of the chief purchasing officer, top management involvement, changes to existing purchasing staff and the involvement of consultants. In the nine changes studied across seven companies, the decentralization process also required the CPO to address a number of simultaneous activities, including cost reduction objectives and implementation of information technology systems. A surprising “purchasing paradox” was also uncovered as top management still expected decentralized supply units to provide additional savings.     

Does advertising increase labour supply? Time series evidence from the UK

Wages in industrialized countries have risen considerably during the last 50 years, whereas hours worked, for manual workers at least, have decreased only marginally. In Europe, one policy response has been to attempt to protect workers from pressure to work long hours by placing legal restrictions on the amount of hours that may be worked each week. This paper examines the possibility that, in fact, observed hours may be the result of a desire of workers to work longer due to a shift in their preferences from leisure to increased consumption, caused by the huge increase in mass media advertising. A cointegrating VAR framework is used to test this hypothesis on UK time series data for both males and females from 1952 to 1997. Advertising is shown to be positively associated with hours worked for both male and female series. Causality tests indicate unidirectional causality, for males and females, from advertising to hours worked. These results suggest that the European policy response is more likely to restrict employee rather than employer discretion over hours.     

Modifying the RPI-X Regulatory System to Include Profit-sharing

This paper aims to contribute to the economic theory of RPI-X (price-cap) regulatory systems which include profit-sharing between a company and its customers. The particular focus is on whether profit-sharing can be introduced in an investment-neutral manner, and on whether there is scope to choose a profit-sharing system which maximises the expected customer rebate. Using a model of a company choosing optimal capacity in the face of uncertain demand and subject to price-cap regulation, it is shown that the potential exists for profit-sharing to be investment-neutral, and it is suggested that the expected customer rebate is maximised for an investment-neutral system which is effectively a cap on profits at a specified level.     

An Assessment of the Impact of Implementing the European Commission's Agenda 2000 Cereal Proposals for Specialist Wheatgrowers in Denmark

This paper undertakes an assessment of the impact of implementing the European Commission's Agenda 2000 cereal proposals for specialist wheatgrowers in Denmark. The economic model of a representative farm developed in Rygnestad and Fraser (1996) is extended to include a model of nitrate leaching and then used to simulate the impact of implementing the proposals. The results of this simulation are compared and contrasted with those of the sectoral and regional impact studies reported in European Commission (1998b). In particular, the proposals are shown to have an environmentally-beneficial effect in terms of reduced nitrate leaching, with the magnitude of this effect dependent both on the quality of land and on the ex ante set-aside rate.     

Common risk factors in bank stocks

This paper provides evidence on the risk factors that are priced in bank equities. Alternative empirical models with precedent in the nonfinancial asset pricing literature are tested, including the single-factor CAPM, three-factor Fama–French model, and ICAPM. Our empirical results indicate that an unconditional two-factor ICAPM model that includes the stock market excess return and shocks to the slope of the yield curve is useful in explaining the cross-section of bank stock returns. However, we find no evidence that firm specific factors such as size and book-to-market ratios are priced in bank stock returns. These results have a number of important implications for the estimation of the banks’ cost of capital as well as regulatory initiatives to utilize market discipline to evaluate bank risk under Basel II.