Structural modeling and measurement theory

Notions of scale type and meaningfulness from the theory of measurement are applied to issues and problems in structural modeling. These notions are used to determine what front-end method to use to obtain variables for a structural model, and to analyze what scale types can be used to measure variables under a pulse process.     

Students in marketing research: Surrogates vs. role-players

The usefulness of the student surrogate has been debated extensively in the marketing literature. The results discussed here suggest that business students are ineffective role-players with regard to anticipating consumers' and businesspersons' reactions; however, students' own evaluations were very much like those of businesspersons.     

RECIPROCITY IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE

This article is in two parts. First, the theoretical basis underlying the possibility of reciprocity in trade is stated. Secondly, a study has been made of statistics of post war trade between the U.K and its major trading partners in an attempt to see whether any evidence of reciprocity emerges and, if so, the nature of the relationship. Doubt is cast on the supposition that a calculation of net import saving is a reliable short-run estimate of net balance of payments contribution of an expansion of U.K. agriculture. Finally, the results of the analysis are applied to the level of import saving projected by the National Economic Development Committee's Report on “Agriculture's Import Saving Role”.     

Alternative Mortgage Instruments, Qualification Constraints and the Demand for Housing: An Empirical Analysis

Government-guaranteed mortgage loans (GFRMs) and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were introduced to make payment to income (PTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) qualification conventions less restrictive. This paper analyzes the effect of GFRMs and ARMs on the demand for housing. Using a large national data set for the 1988 to 1989 period, we employ a two-stage procedure to estimate housing demand. In the first stage, a multinomial logit model estimates the probability of choosing an FRM, ARM or GFRM. Predicted values from the logit are used to construct user costs and estimate housing demand. Using the model estimates, we simulate demand under four different mortgage availability regimes: FRM, FRM and GFRM, FRM and ARM and all three. These simulations indicate that GFRMs, by relaxing LTV constraints, increase housing demand by approximately 6.2% relative to the FRM regime; the addition of ARMs, by relaxing both PTI and LTV constraints, raises demand by an additional 6%, for a total of 12.2% with inclusion of all alternatives.     

Modelling purchase patterns on the basis of incomplete and biased consumer purchase diary and UPC panel data

This study proposes a new approach for the analysis and prediction of product class and brand purchase patterns. The approach is designed to specifically consider data consisting of incomplete and biased purchase histories that may result from diary or UPC panel samples. Alternative approaches are developed that are illustrated on the basis of actual panel diary data and statistical estimation procedures to describe and predict actual product class and brand purchase patterns. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the potentially substantial errors that may result from the analysis of panel data in practice.