Assessing environmental sustainability in tourism and recreation areas: a risk-assessment-based model

This paper presents a three-stage model that applies the principles of risk assessment to the evaluation of environmental sustainability in the tourism and recreation sectors. The model uses both qualitative and quantitative data. While assessing environmental risk at and from tourism and recreation areas is fundamental to sustainable management, existing methodologies rely on sets of environmental data that are often poorly linked and difficult to interpret in a holistic manner. Risk assessment is a concept that can overcome current limitations in environmental assessment methodologies. This model demonstrates its utility by assessing the environmental sustainability of two tourism and recreation sites in Ireland, with 25 environmental hazards identified at the rural Lough Derg (Shannon River) site and 29 at the relatively urban Dublin Bay site. The results show that the practical production of holistic and representative data on environmental risk from tourism and recreation areas is possible, with water quality, amenity value, traffic and transport, boating activity and noise found particularly relevant. The strengths and limitations of the proposed model are considered and compared with three existing tourism impact models: the use of sustainability indicators and two tourism-planning frameworks, limits of acceptable change (LAC) and visitor impact management (VIM).     

NONPARAMETRIC KERNEL-BASED SEQUENTIAL INVESTMENT STRATEGIES

The purpose of this paper is to introduce sequential investment strategies that guarantee an optimal rate of growth of the capital, under minimal assumptions on the behavior of the market. The new strategies are analyzed both theoretically and empirically. The theoretical results show that the asymptotic rate of growth matches the optimal one that one could achieve with a full knowledge of the statistical properties of the underlying process generating the market, under the only assumption that the market is stationary and ergodic. The empirical results show that the performance of the proposed investment strategies measured on past nyse and currency exchange data is solid, and sometimes even spectacular.     

On induced economic change in precapitalist societies

This essay explores a number of properties of a general growth model of induced economic change in precapitalist societies which incorporates both the insights of Ester Boserup and Thomas Malthus. Responses to diminishing returns include changes in work intensity and population growth. Some important variants of the model are also examined which focus on the transfer of production to non-producers and on alternative processes by which change is induced. The results are used to generate some parameters influencing the political stability of non-working elites; to criticize some previous, less general, growth models; and to suggest some fruitful lines fot future empirical research on economic development in the long run.     

Brain Drain in Developing Countries

An original data set on international migration by educationalattainment for 1990 and 2000 is used to analyze the determinantsof brain drain from developing countries. The analysis startswith a simple decomposition of the brain drain in two multiplicativecomponents, the degree of openness of sending countries (measuredby the average emigration rate) and the schooling gap (measuredby the education level of emigrants compared with natives).Regression models are used to identify the determinants of thesecomponents and explain cross-country differences in the migrationof skilled workers. Unsurprisingly, the brain drain is strongin small countries that are close to major Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD) regions, that sharecolonial links with OECD countries, and that send most of theirmigrants to countries with quality-selective immigration programs.Interestingly, the brain drain increases with political instabilityand the degree of fractionalization at origin and decreaseswith natives' human capital.     

Energy productivity and greenhouse gas emission intensity in Dutch dairy farms: A Hicks–Moorsteen by-production approach under non-convexity and convexity with equivalence results

The agricultural sector is currently confronted with the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, whilst maintaining or increasing production. Energy-saving technologies are often proposed as a partial solution, but the evidence on their ability to reduce GHG emissions remains mixed. Production economics provides methodological tools to analyse the nexus of agricultural production, energy use and GHG emissions. Convexity is predominantly maintained in agricultural production economics, despite various theoretical and empirical reasons to question it. Employing non-convex and convex frontier frameworks, this contribution evaluates energy productivity change (the ratio of aggregate output change to energy use change) and GHG emission intensity change (the ratio of GHG emission change to polluting input change) using Hicks-Moorsteen productivity formulations. We consider GHG emissions as by-products of the production process by using a multi-equation model. Given our empirical specification, non-convex and convex Hicks-Moorsteen indices can coincide under certain circumstances, which leads to a series of theoretical equivalence results. The empirical application focuses on 1,510 observations of Dutch dairy farms for the period of 2010–2019. The results show a positive association between energy productivity change and GHG emission intensity change, which calls into question the potential of on-farm, energy-efficiency-increasing measures to reduce GHG emission intensity.     

Tourism yield measures for Cambodia

This paper develops new measures of tourism yield in the context of Cambodia, a developing country in South East Asia. It first sets out some data regarding tourism in Cambodia and the reasons for tourism being identified as a tool for economic development and poverty alleviation. It then sets out the method and findings of a study by the International Finance Corporation-Mekong Private Sector Development Facility to develop standard and extended measures of tourism yield to assess the pro-poor impact of international tourism in Cambodia. These yield measures extend earlier work undertaken by the first author. It then discusses the policy implications of the findings. It is concluded that while tourism goes some way in reducing poverty in Cambodia, informed policy initiatives can enhance the effect. It is argued that different visitor yield measures provide an important basis for the development of strategies to increase tourism's pro-poor impact. A substantial barrier to the formulation of appropriate policies to increase the pro-poor benefits of Cambodia arises from the limited data available in poor countries generally.     

Atoms,Bits, and Wits: A New Economics for the Twenty-First Century—Part II

Learning also affects the organization of economic activity as a “force locomotif” of growth. Bounded rationality opens a theory of planning horizons as an ordinal measure of wits. The realm of wits shines a novel light on the nature of interdependence, since the balance of substitution and complementarity is horizonal: longer and broader horizons shift this balance away from substitution in favor of complementarity, augmenting concerts of interest over conflicts in social relations. Atoms, bits, and wits are modeled to show why substitution only applies to short-run atoms; a case for complementarity rises from both increasing returns and bits, where wits strengthen the case for cooperation as efficient. With complementarity, competition—not collusion—stifles output. The social and institutional implications of this are addressed theoretically in this paper.     

The evolution of competition in U.S. manufacturing

Although four-digit concentration ratios remained roughly constant in the quarter century between 1958 and 1982, they declined significantly when adjusted for imports. The empirical analysis in this paper shows that changes in both types of four-digit concentration ratios were related to the initial level of industrial concentration, barriers to entry, market growth, and to a set of adjustment variables reflecting an interaction of imports and particular structural aspects of the industry. Speculations about the future of competition in the United States are based on the regression equations explaining changes in concentration.I would like to thank John Caskey, Ellen Magenheim, Lee Perlman, Zora Pryor, F. M. Scherer, and participants of the Swarthmore Economics Department's Summer Brown Bag Lunch for comments on an earlier draft. I am also grateful to Chang-Tai Hsieh, who served as a research assistant in the initial stages of research, to the Swarthmore College Faculty Research Fund for financing, to the Brookings Institution where this essay was completed, and to Richard Caves and Lawrence Katz for supplying data classified by four-digit industries to me. Of course, only I am responsible for my conclusions and errors.