Retrospective questions: data quality,task difficulty,and the use of a checklist

Data from a national panel study with waves in 1987 and 1991 (N=1257), present evidence of the low accuracy of responses to retrospective questions, concerning both attitudes and behaviour. Applying a split ballot design, it is investigated whether using a checklist improves the response accuracy for a retrospective question about one single event: how respondents (N=363) did obtain the job they had four years ago. Furthermore interaction effects of ‘task difficulty’ are examined. The response accuracy indeed increases by using a checklist; however, this increase is not statistically significant. The expected increase of the checklist effect with higher ‘task difficulty’ appears for longer recall intervals, but not for more frequent changes of jobs. It turned out that for male respondents all the predicted effects are indeed clearly present. But for female respondents the checklist appeared to have no effect, irrespective of the task difficulty. A tentative explanation for this unexpected gender effect is suggested by pointing at indications that the male and female respondents differed in the way they obtained their job.     

Recovering Hicksian Consumer Surplus within a Collective Model: Hausman's Method for the Household

The purpose of this paper is to describe the implications of the collective model of household behavior for the methods used to estimate the economic value of non-marketed environmental resources. After demonstrating how the separability restrictions inherent in the collective model allow individual preference and household income allocation choices to be distinguished, the paper demonstrates how the framework can be used to recover Hicksian consumer surplus. An algebraic example is used to illustrate how the framework can be used in valuing environmental resources.     

Banks’ non-traditional activities under regulatory changes: impact on risk,performance and capital adequacy

Using the big six Canadian chartered banks quarterly financial statements and daily stock market data from 1982 to 2018, we examine the impact of non-interest income on Canadian banks’ risk, performance and capital under the different major regulatory changes made to the Bank Act of Canada. Our results show that Canadian banks’ expansion into non-traditional activities had slightly decreased their risks and significantly improved their performance benefitting from income diversification. Moreover, while adhering to capital adequacy regulation, reshuffling banks’ portfolio towards non-traditional activities did not reduce Canadian banks’ capital ratio. In spite of the re-regulation towards universal banking against ring-fencing, this feature buttresses the effectiveness of capital adequacy regulation in Canada in linking banks capital allocation with their risk taking.     

Credible assignments in coordination games

This paper uses the experimental method to examine an arbiter's ability to determine the outcome of two-person coordination games. All of the arbiter's assignments in the experiments were strict equilibrium points, but some assignments violated payoff-dominance or symmetry. An assignment that corresponds to the game's outcome is a credible assignment. The experiments test the hypothesis that an assignment to a strict equilibrium is a credible assignment. Our subjects did not find the individual rationality and mutual consistency of an equilibrium assignment to be sufficient reason for implementing the assignment when doing so conflicts with payoff-dominance or symmetry.     

Spreads, Depths, and Quote Clustering on the NYSE and Nasdaq: Evidence after the 1997 Securities and Exchange Commission Rule Changes

This paper examines liquidity and quote clustering on the NYSE and Nasdaq using data after the two market reforms—the 1997 order–handling rule and minimum tick size changes. We find that Nasdaq–listed stocks exhibit wider spreads and smaller depths than NYSE–listed stocks and stocks with higher proportions of even–eighth and even–sixteenth quotes have wider quoted, effective, and realized spreads on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. This result differs from the findings by Bessembinder (1999, p. 404) that "trade execution costs on Nasdaq in late 1997 are no longer significantly explained by a tendency for liquidity providers to avoid odd–eighth quotations," and "odd–sixteenth avoidance has little relevance for explaining post–reform Nasdaq trading costs."     

The Relevance of Stock and Flow-Based Reporting Information In Assessing the Likelihood of Emergence from Corporate Financial Distress

A number of recent studies have shown that earnings information is less useful and value relevant when firms are financially troubled. This finding has given rise to the consideration of alternatives. In this paper, we examine the contributions of book value-based proxies (normal earnings and abandonment value) and flow-based proxies (earnings and operating accruals) to the assessment of the likelihood of emergence from financial distress. Our prior reasoning is that while book value-based proxies may provide information about potential future cash resources, flow-based proxies, because they capture the progress of reorganization efforts underway, as opposed to mere potential, should be relatively more useful in assessing the likelihood of emergence from distress. Our findings are consistent with this explanation. We document that the primary predictors of emergence are flow-based proxies—in particular, cash from operations, net of earnings.     

Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms’ disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS.  We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher.  Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms’ voluntary disclosures.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.