Machine learning in individual claims reserving

Machine learning techniques make it feasible to calculate claims reserves on individual claims data. This paper illustrates how these techniques can be used by providing an explicit example in individual claims reserving.     

Oblivious equilibrium for concentrated industries

This article explores the application of oblivious equilibrium (OE) to highly concentrated markets. We define a natural extended notion of OE, called partially oblivious equilibrium (POE), that allows for there to be a set of strategically important firms (the “dominant” firms), whose firm states are always monitored by every other firm in the market. We perform computational experiments that explore the characteristics of POE, OE, and Markov perfect equilibrium (MPE), and find that POE generally performs well in highly concentrated markets. We also derive error bounds for evaluating the performance of POE for cases where MPE cannot be computed.     

Foreign Direct Investments and Domestic Employment of German SMEs: The Moderating Effect of Owner Management

Despite considerable research, the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic employment is still inconclusive. The present paper contributes to extant research by providing differentiated findings on the FDI and domestic employment relationship. We examine how horizontal and vertical FDI impact domestic employment and how the effects are contingent on the ownership structure of the firm. Testing hypotheses on a dataset of 1,079 German small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) shows that horizontal FDI has a positive influence, whereas vertical FDI has a negative influence on domestic employment. Furthermore, domestic downsizing due to the establishment of foreign production subsidiaries is less severe in owner‐managed SMEs.     

False Discoveries und Fehlinterpretationen wissenschaftlicher Ergebnisse

High-quality science communication to the public depends to a large extent on the way research findings are translated into comprehensible language and common speech. In this communicative process, a reasonable evaluation of the trustworthiness of empirical findings, based on an adequate interpretation of statistical analyses, is absolutely crucial. This paper’s authors argue that the credibility of science is jeopardised by two compromising developments within science itself: on the one hand, an inflation of ostensible empirical evidence related to misuses and misinterpretations of the concept of statistical significance, and, on the other, a sensationalist overvaluation of the results of single studies instead of an adequate representation of the available body of evidence in a given scientific field.     

Can teaching social dilemmas make people more prosocial? An experiment

Economics and business students regularly behave less prosocially than others. Can ethics training reverse this tendency? Results from a repeated public goods experiment reveal that it can. Students who attend an interactive lecture on social dilemmas show significantly more cooperation than others. However, the lecture does not appear to increase the incidence of reciprocal behavior. As many current social problems qualify as social dilemmas, this result stresses the importance of ethics training for policy makers and curriculum designers alike in overcoming the incentive structure of social dilemmas.     

POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE MODELS WITH NON‐FILTERED DATA

Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low‐frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results which depend on the model specification used. Basic NKPC models are extended to include structural time series models that describe typical time‐varying patterns in levels and volatilities. Forward‐ and backward‐looking expectation components for inflation are incorporated and their relative importance is evaluated. Survey data on expected inflation are introduced to strengthen the information in the likelihood. Use is made of simulation‐based Bayesian techniques for the empirical analysis. No credible evidence is found on endogeneity and long‐run stability between inflation and marginal costs. Backward‐looking inflation appears stronger than forward‐looking inflation. Levels and volatilities of inflation are estimated more precisely using rich NKPC models. The extended NKPC structures compare favorably with existing basic Bayesian vector autoregressive and stochastic volatility models in terms of fit and prediction. Tails of the complete predictive distributions indicate an increase in the probability of deflation in recent years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Benefits of Cross‐sector Partnerships in Markets at the Base of the Pyramid

In this paper we analyze whether cross‐sector partnerships enable companies to respond to the specific conditions at the base of the pyramid (BOP). We develop three hypotheses in which we argue how cross‐sector partnerships support companies to face unfamiliar conditions in these markets. We test the developed hypotheses against the data of 103 companies operating in BOP‐markets. The results show that companies rely on organizations from the civil society sector in order to meet customer needs. Partners from the business sector are supportive when responding to restrictive market conditions. Institutional partnerships should be considered when companies aim at responding to the regulatory environment. We outline theoretical and managerial implications and reflect some limitations of the study. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.