Arbitrage costs and nonlinear adjustment in the G7 stock markets

This article aims to study stock price adjustments towards fundamentals due to the existence of arbitrage costs defined as the sum of transaction costs and a risky arbitrage premium associated with the uncertainty characterizing the fundamentals. Accordingly, it is shown that a two regime Smooth Transition Error Correction Model (STECM) is appropriate to reproduce the dynamics of stock price deviations from fundamentals in the G7 countries during the period 1969 to 2005. This model takes into account the interdependences or contagion effects between stock markets. Deviations appear to follow a quasi random walk in the central regime when prices are near fundamentals (i.e. when arbitrage costs are greater than expected arbitrage profits, the mean reversion mechanism is inactive), while they approach a white noise in the outer regimes (i.e. when arbitrage costs are lower than expected arbitrage profits, the mean reversion is active). Interestingly, as expected when arbitrage costs are heterogeneous, the estimated STECM shows that stock price adjustments are smooth and that the convergence speed depends on the size of the deviation. Finally, using two appropriate indicators proposed by Peel and Taylor (2000), both the magnitudes of under and overvaluation of stock price and the adjustment speed are calculated per date in the G7 countries. These indicators show that the dynamics of stock price adjustment are strongly dependent on both the date and the country under consideration.     

A Balanced Concept of the Firm and the Measurement of Its Long-term Planning and Performance

This paper offers a new concept of the firm that aims at balancing the corporate economic, social, and environmental responsibilities and goes beyond the stakeholder approach. It intends to provide a conceptual and operationalizable basis to fairly assess corporate conduct from both inside and outside the companies. To a large extent these different responsibilities may overlap and reinforce each other. However, if they conflict, they should be clearly evaluated for their own sake and in terms of wealth creation. Only then can a balanced approach be realized. Section 1 briefly discusses some general aspects of the relationship between concepts and measurement. In Section 2, a concept of the firm is developed that is based on the notion of responsibility and balances economic, social and environmental responsibilities. According to these concepts, different ways of measuring corporate planning and performance are examined in Section 3, followed up by a summary and conclusions.     

Clientelism and aid

Using a model of probabilistic voting, we analyze the impact of aid on the political equilibrium in the recipient country or region. We consider politicians with mixed motives: they are interested in promoting social welfare but also value the benefit of holding office. We label as clientelistic the politician who most values the benefit of being in power. We find that the impact of aid on the political equilibrium and therefore on the quality of policy in the recipient country (using utilitarian social welfare as a benchmark) ultimately depends on the value of the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. When elasticity is low, the expected policy outcome gets further away from the socially desirable policy set. This substitution of policy quality for aid can help to explain the poor performance of aid in improving policy. Perhaps more surprising is the opposite case, which arises for high values of elasticity of marginal utility: an increase in aid tilts the equilibrium policy towards the welfare-maximizing policy set.     

Which business model for e-book pricing?

We characterize and compare equilibrium pricing strategies in a marketing channel in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the manufacturer chooses the wholesale prices of the two versions of a product, i.e., tangible and digital. and the retailer their prices to consumer. In the second scenario, the players use a revenue-sharing contract for only the digital version, while the competing version is managed by a wholesale price contract. The problem is inspired from a pricing controversy in the e-book industry.     

Operational risk and reputation in the financial industry

By examining stock market reactions to the announcement of operational losses by financial companies, this paper attempts to disentangle operational losses from reputational damage. Our analysis deals with 154 events coming from the FIRST database of OpVantage. Events occurred between 1990 and 2004 in companies belonging to the financial sector and that are listed on the major European and US Stock Exchanges. Results show significant, negative abnormal returns at the announcement date of the loss, along with an increase in the volumes of trade. In cases of internal fraud, the loss in market value is greater that the operational loss amount announced, which is interpreted as a sign of reputational damage. Negative impact is proportionally greater when the loss amount represents a larger share in the company’s net profit.     

Demographic Dividends in the ‘South’, Ageing ‘North’, and ‘South-South’ Trade Diversification

The absence of clear convergence in incomes per capita and welfare between the North and the South, even in the face of spectacular growth rates in GDP in the emerging South, might be due to a terms of trade deterioration resulting from an expansion of production in the South which depresses the product’s price on world markets. This may originate from a “technical catch up” and also from a “demographic dividend” in the South relative to an ageing North. This article illustrates that some South-South trade diversification might mitigate the terms of trade deterioration and increase welfare gains in the South. We use a multicountry overlapping-generation general equilibrium model to simulate the magnitude of the terms of trade effect due to a demographic dividend in Turkey, and show that some trade diversification away from EU toward the South is a welfare improving policy for Turkey.     

Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data

Using Consensus Economics survey data on JPY/USD and GBP/USD exchange rate expectations for the 3- and 12-month horizons over the period November 1989–December 2012, we first show that expectations fail the conventional tests of unbiasedness and do not exhibit a learning process towards rationality. Our approach is consistent with the economically rational expectations theory (Feige and Pearce, 1976), which states that information costs and agents’ aversion to misestimating future exchange rates determine the optimal amounts of information on which they base their expectations. The time variability of the cost/aversion ratios justifies at the aggregate level a representation of expectations as a linear combination of the traditional extrapolative, adaptive and regressive processes augmented by a forward market component, whose parameters are allowed to change over time. This mixed expectation model with unstable heterogeneity is validated by our Kalman filter estimation results for the two currencies and the two horizons considered. Although the relative importance of the ‘fundamentalists’ (‘chartists’) is found to increase (decrease) with the time-horizon, chartist behaviour appears to dominate fundamentalist behaviour for both horizons. Central bank intervention is then effective in stabilizing the foreign exchange markets if it encourages fundamentalist activity.     

On the determinants of the implied default barrier

Many structural models specify the default barrier, but few have explored its empirical significance and determinants. The effect of liquidity shortage is not well measured, nor is the effect of strategic default well identified. We use the maximum likelihood (ML) approach to estimate the default barrier model and the Merton-KMV model using market values of equities in a sample of 762 public industrial firms. The estimated barrier is below leverage in our sample. The default probability from the two structural models provides similar in-sample fits, but the default barrier framework achieves better out-of-sample forecasts. Our analysis also focuses on the factors that influence the level of the implied default barrier when leverage is endogenous, and shows that endogenous leverage is not the only determinant of the default barrier as predicted by the standard structural credit model. The implied default threshold is positively related to financing costs, and negatively related to liquidity, asset volatility, and firm size. Three strategic default variables (liquidation costs, renegotiation frictions and equity holders’ bargaining power) increase the implied default barrier level. This evidence supports strategic default models.