The Evolution of the Social Contract

Two transitions in the evolution of the social contract are considered, the first from the dominance hierarchies of the great apes (used as a proxy for our prehuman ancestors) to the egalitarian political structure of non-sedentary hunter-gatherer bands, and the second, to the reintroduction of hierarchical institutions of governance, primarily a result of living in fixed settlements after the inception of agriculture. The first transition was a product of biological and cultural evolution, which brought about big brains, language, higher consciousness, and a lower rate of time preference that enabled early man to sustain an egalitarian social contract and thereby escape the domination that confronted his prehuman ancestors. The second transition was a product of cultural evolution alone. The high costs of enforcing the hunter-gatherer social contract caused it to break down and be replaced by hierarchy when the domestication of plants and animals gave rise to a sedentary existence and increased populations. However, it is shown that the very biological and cultural adaptations that made hunter-gatherer egalitarianism possible were a necessary foundation for the spontaneous creation of complex culture and the evolution of institutions that would once again eventually make freedom possible and economic prosperity possible.     

Teaching New Product Development To Employed Adults

The purpose of this article is to report the lessons derived from broad practical experience in teaching new product development (NPD) to employed adults. My observations are importantly augmented by diverse comments from nine other service providers who also conduct and participate in similar NPD education. Our combined lessons summarize what works and what to be forewarned about. (“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”– George Santayana.) We believe that what we have learned from our very different and extensive involvement can help several audiences: (1) others who offer or plan to offer and deliver NPD education – educators, service providers, or practitioners; (2) organizations that may wish to sponsor NPD training in any form; and (3) those who expect to participate as students in NPD seminars or courses. The article has four main sections, all of which are intended to provide pointers and helpful suggestions based on our collective experience. First is a discussion of issues concerning program set‐up and acceptance. Both sponsors and participants have important responsibilities for this, which are explained. Second is a discussion of practical issues specific to NPD education. The varieties of subject matter and support materials, format options, techniques to sustain interest, instructor characteristics, and client confidentiality are covered. Third is a discussion of practical logistic issues that apply to all adult education but with an emphasis on NPD. Advance warning of what can be and has been encountered may help you circumvent many avoidable problems. Fourth is a brief discussion about the future for NPD education. In this we speculate that the emergence of broadband Internet may provide a new modality, the effectiveness of which is still uncertain. An important insight for you to note is that we do not always do the same thing or approach teaching situations in the same way. What has worked for one of us may not have been effective for another or in another situation. In summary, the experiences we record should help you improve the delivery of NPD education or more efficiently benefit from participation in such training. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.     

The Relation between Market Values,Earnings Forecasts,and Reported Earnings*

Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.     

Analysis of Beef Producers' Risk Management Perceptions and Desire for Further Risk Management Education

Beef cattle producers were surveyed in Texas and Nebraska to investigate perceptions of sources of risk, the effectiveness of risk management strategies, and interest in further risk management education, particularly production risk, using probit analysis. Important decision variables identified are age, prior use of risk management tools, previous attendances of risk management education, and risk aversion. Severe drought and cattle price variability are identified as primary risk factors with potential to affect farm income. Extremely cold weather and disease are of less importance. Understocking pasture and storing hay are perceived most effective as risk management options.     

Estimating the effectiveness of extension information systems using farm trials and subjective probabilities

A method of combining survey data and Dairy Herd Improvement Association (DHIA) records to achieve low cost farm trials is presented. Farm trials and surveys of current practices and production responses are useful to identify yield gaps between expectations predicted from experimental findings and actual field results. Different management schemes can be ranked using subjective probabilities and stochastic dominance to enhance successful implementation of research findings and to increase the feedback between researchers, extension workers, and producers. A survey of current masitis control practices and expected milk yield response is the example. Combining survey results with DHIA records allowed estimating the relationship between somatic cell counts (SCC) and milk yield. Eliciting beliefs about the relationship between SCC and milk yield showed that producers agreed with predictions from the statistical model. Subjective probabilities about SCC and mastitis control practices showed that our sample of experts and producers consistently ranked the different practices but extension agents had no consensus about the the most or least effective ones.     

Stock Market Reactions to SFAS No. 96: Evidence from Early Bank Adopters

Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 96, “Accounting for Income Taxes,” issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in December 1987 changed accounting for income tax recognition and accrual. The original deadline for implementation of SFAS No. 96 was December 15, 1988, and earlier adoption was encouraged. This study examines empirically the stock price impact of four pertinent announcement dates regarding SFAS No. 96 for 19 banks that adopted the statement in late 1987 and early 1988. Our results suggest that these early bank adopters have different characteristics from other banks that cause them to benefit from the changes in accounting for deferred taxes and explain their voluntary adoption of the standard.     

Food Safety Through Food Irradiation: Should it be Adopted More by the EU?

Food Safety Through Food Irradiation: Should it be Adopted More by the EU? Food Irradiation is a food safety technology that can eliminate disease‐causing germs from foods. Faut il encourager ?irradiation pour améliorer la sécurité des aliments en Europe? ?irradiation des aliments est une technique de sécurité alimentaire, qui permet ?en éliminer les germes pathogènes. De même que la pasteurisation du lait, le traitement par des radiations ionisantes permet de tuer les bactéries susceptibles de causer des infections ?origine alimentaire. Celles‐ci sont toujours présentes, et ont de graves conséquences tant pour la santé que pour ?économie. Aux Etats‐Unis, ?irradiation est une technique autorisée pour beaucoup de produits alimentaires. Dans ce pays, le nombre de restaurants et de supermarchés vendant des produits irradiés a augmenté de façon considérable au cours des trois dernières années. Des expérimentations économiques montrent que les consommateurs américains sont disposés à dépenser pour le b?uf irradié des sommes sensiblement supérieures aux suppléments de coûts associés à?irradiation. En Europe, ?utilisation de ?irradiation comme technique de conservation des aliments, susceptible de s'insérer dans des programmes de sécurité alimentaire rigoureux, est beaucoup plus limitée. Jusqu'ici, laliste des produits dont ?irradiation est autorisée dans ?ensemble de la Communauté Européenne ne contient qu'une seule catégorie de produits alimentaires:les herbes aromatiques, épices, et assaisonnements ?origine végétale. Avec la globalisation des circuits commerciaux et le renforcement, exigé par les agences de régulation, des normes de sécurité du champ à la fourchette, la généralisation de l0'irradiation des produits alimentaires devrait profiter à?ensemble des producteurs et des consommateurs européens. Nahrungsmittelsicherheit durch Bestrahlung von Nahrungsmitteln: Sollte dies in der EU verstärkt angewandt werden? Bei der Bestrahlung von Nahrungsmitteln handelt es sich um ein Verfahren zur Gewährleistung der Nahrungsmittelsicherheit, bei der krankheitsverursachende Keime in den Nahrungsmitteln abgetötet werden. Wie bei der Pasteurisierung von Milch können Bakterien mit Hilfe von ionisierenden Strahlen in Nahrungsmitteln abgetötet werden, die anderenfalls durch Nahrungsmittel übertragbare Erkrankungen hervorrufen würden. Diese Erkrankungen stellen eine permanente Bedrohung dar und Ziehen ernstzunehmende Konsequenzen für Gesundheit und Wirtschaft nach sich. In den USA dürfen verschiedene Nahrungsmittelarten bestrahlt werden. In den vergangenen drei Jahren hat die Anzahl der Supermärkte und Restaurants in den USA, die strahlungsbehandelte Produkte anbieten, enorm zugenommen. Erste ökonomische Versuche in den USA legen es nahe, dass die Bereitschaft der Verbraucher, einen höheren Preis für bestrahltes Rinderhackfleisch zu zahlen, sehr viel höher ist als die mit der Bestrahlung verbundenen zusätzlichen Kosten. Die Anwendung der Bestrahlung von Nahrungsmitteln als Werkzeug zur Gewährleistung der Nahrungsmittelsicherheit, welches die strengenNahrungsmittelsicherheitspro‐gramme ergänzen könnte, ist in Europa eher begrenzt. Bislang handelt es sich bei den Produkten, die für die Bestrahlung innerhalb der gesamten EU zugelassen sind, nur um eine einzige Nahrungsmittelklasse: getrocknete aromatische Kräuter und Gewürze. Durch die zunehmende Nachfrage der Aufsichtsbehörden nach Nahrungsmittelsicherheit ?vom Stall bis zum Teller? und die Globalisierung des Nahrungsmittelhandels könnten die Produzenten und Verbraucher in der EU von einer verstärkten Anwendung der Bestrahlung von Nahrungsmitteln profitieren. Like pasteurization of milk, treating food with ionizing radiation can kill bacteria that would otherwise cause foodborne disease. Foodborne illnesses are ever present and have serious health and economic consequences. In the US, food irradiation is approved for use in various foods. The number of supermarkets and restaurants in the US that offer irradiated products has increased dramatically in the last three years. Preliminary economic experiments in the US suggest that consumer willingness to pay for irradiated ground beef is substantially greater than the additional costs associated with irradiation. The use of food irradiation as a food safety tool that could complement rigorous food safety programmes is rather limited in Europe. So far, the list of products authorized for irradiation within the whole EU contains only a single food category: dried aromatic herbs, spices, and vegetable seasonings. With increasing demand by regulatory authorities on food safety from ‘farm to fork’ and the globalization of food trade, EU producers and consumers may benefit from wider adoption of irradiation of food products.     

Introducing Time‐to‐Educate in a Job‐Search Model

Transition patterns from school to work differ considerably across OECD countries. Some countries exhibit high youth unemployment rates, which can be considered an indicator of the difficulty facing young people trying to integrate into the labour market. At the same time, education is a time‐consuming process, and enrolment and dropout decisions depend on expected duration of studies as well as on job prospects with and without completed degrees. One way to model entry into the labour market is by means of job‐search models, where the job arrival hazard is a key parameter in capturing the ease or difficulty in finding a job. Standard models of job search and education assume that skills can be upgraded instantaneously (and mostly in the form of on‐the‐job training) at a fixed cost. This paper models education as a time‐consuming process, a concept which we call time‐to‐educate, during which an individual faces the trade‐off between continuing education and taking up a job.     

Protection for sale with imperfect rent capturing

Abstract .  Grossman and Helpman (1994) explain tariffs as the outcome of a lobbying process. In most empirical implementations of this framework protection is instead measured using non-tariff barriers. Since tariffs allow the government to fully capture the rents from protection, while non-tariff barriers do not, the existing parameter estimates of the protection for sale model are likely to be biased. To address this problem, we augment the framework by considering instruments that allow partial capturing. Our specification is supported by the data, where we find that only 72–75% of the rent from protection is appropriated by the government.     

Environmental uncertainty and environmental scanning activities of nigerian manufacturing executives: A comparative analysis

This study investigated the relationship between perception of environmental uncertainty (PEU) and environmental scanning behavior of Chief Executive Officers of 47 manufacturing firms in Nigeria. The results indicated that perceived uncertainty in the environment was significantly higher for the task environment sectors than for the remote environment sectors; and as perceived uncertainty increased in a sector of the environment, scanning frequency and scanning interests also increased. The results were compared with those of prior research in the area of environmental scanning. The results show both the economic and political legal sectors of the environment to be more salient for Nigerian manufacturing executives than for their American counterparts.