Economic value of analyst recommendations in Australia: an application of the Black–Litterman asset allocation model

This study empirically examines the investment value of security analyst recommendations on constituent stocks of the S&P/ASX 50 index. We find that stocks with favourable (unfavourable) recommendations on average outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark index. An investment strategy using the Black–Litterman asset allocation model that incorporates consensus analyst recommendations, in conjunction with daily rebalancing, outperforms the market in terms of return and risk‐adjusted performance measures. The investment strategy involves high levels of trading, and no significant abnormal returns are achieved after transaction costs. Less frequent rebalancing, under most situations, causes a decrease in both performance and turnover. Filtering of dated recommendations causes an increase in turnover, while having mixed effects on investment returns.     

Myopic Corporate Behaviour with Optimal Management Incentives

Existing models in which stock markets lead to corporate 'short-termism' rely on an exogenously imposed objective for top managers. This paper endogenizes both managers' concern for short-term stock prices and the resulting distortions. We show that when the manager can trade on her own account on the stock market in a way that is observable to market participants but which is not verifiable in court, shareholders will choose an incentive contract which induces a bias towards short-term returns. Consistent with recent evidence, the short-term bias is greater when the optimal contract provides low-powered management incentives.     

A simple axiomatization and constructive representation proof for choquet expected utility

>P>Summary. We provide a set of simple and intuitive set of axioms that allow for a direct and constructive proof of the Choquet Expected Utility representation for decision making under uncertainty. Received: October 29, 2002; revised version: November 13, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" We thank Matthew Ryan for very useful comments and suggestions on related work and for encouraging us to write this note. Correspondence to: S. Grant     

Friedman fallacies

Milton Friedman's article, The Social Responsibility of Business Is To Increase Its Profits, owes its appeal to the rhetorical devices of simplicity, authority, and finality. More careful consideration reveals oversimplification and ambiguity that conceals empirical errors and logical fallacies. It is false that business does, or would, operate exclusively in economic terms, that managers concentrate obsessively on profitability, and that ethics can be marginalized. These errors reflect basic contradictions: an apolitical political base, altruistic agents of selfishness, and good deriving from greed. Colin Grant is a Professor in the Department of Religious Studies at Mount Allison University. He teaches an undergraduate course on The Ethics and Ethos of Business. His article Giving Ethics the Business appeared in JBE 7 (1988), pp. 489–495. Some of the journals in which he has published are: The Christian Century, The Dalhousie Review, Journal of the American Academy of Religion, Modern Theology, Religious Studies, Studies in Religion/Sciences Religieuses, The Toronto Journal of Theology.     

Trends, lead times and forecasting

The innovations representation for a local linear trend can adapt to long run secular and short term transitory effects in the data. This is illustrated by the theoretical power spectrum for the model which may possess considerable power at frequencies that might be associated with cycles of several years' duration. Whilst advantageous for short term forecasting, the model may be of less use when interest is in the underlying long run trend in the data. In this paper we propose a generalisation of the innovations representation for a local linear trend that is appropriate for representing short, medium and long run trends in the data.