Explaining Russia's Currency and Financial Crisis

The paper attempts to sketch a framework for understanding Russia's August 1998 financial and currency crises with reference to the main theories put forward so far. Our thesis is that, while not fitting easily into any pre-existing framework, the Russian crises shares many features of first-generation models inasmuch as it was largely due to inconsistencies among an overvalued peg, tight money, and an evident inability to address the fiscal deficit. In other terms, it derived from the incompatibility between standard IMF stabilisation policies and the difficulties that Russia was facing as a transition economy. On the other hand, by touching both currency markets and the banking sector, the Russian Episode shares also important features of the twin crises framework.The analysis considers the role of exchange rate movements and capital flows on Russia's rising vulnerability, fiscal problems and the building up of the public debt. It assesses the state of the Russian Banking sector and discusses the contagion effects of the Asian crisis and policy response. It shows how the core of the Russian crises lies in an unsound, IMF-backed, defence of the rouble, which in 1998 had become increasingly unsustainable.     

The attitudes and nutritional knowledge of 11‐ to 12‐year‐olds in Merseyside and Northern Ireland

School is a major area for providing young people with nutritional knowledge and skills. In Northern Ireland home economics (HE) is taught to 11‐ to 12‐year‐olds. The 1988 Education Reform Act introduced the national curriculum and HE as a subject was effectively abolished in English schools, and key stage 3 pupils in England are taught nutrition in Science, Design and Technology and in the cross curricular theme of health education. The aim of the study was to compare the attitudes and nutritional knowledge of children in Merseyside, England (M) and Northern Ireland (NI). A questionnaire was designed, which examined attitudes to aspects of healthy eating and tested the subject's knowledge, practical and theoretical, on nutrition and healthy eating. Subjects aged 11–12 years were recruited (M: 541, NI: 128). The majority ‘understood and knew what to eat to have a healthy diet’, ‘liked the taste of healthy food’ and considered that ‘there were healthy foods at home’. However, a significantly greater number in Merseyside agreed that ‘their health will be affected in the future by what they eat now’ (M: 71%, NI: 54%, P < 0.01) and agreed that ‘they enjoyed cooking’ (M: 76%, NI: 56%, P < 0.01). Whereas more from Northern Ireland agreed that ‘they do not know what foods to eat to have a healthy diet’ (M: 14%, NI: 30%, P < 0.01), ‘that healthy eating involved “dieting” ’ (M: 29%, NI: 59%, P < 0.01) and agreed that ‘there are no healthy food choices at school’ (M: 23% NI: 42%, P < 0.01). More subjects from Merseyside disagreed that ‘healthy eating is a waste of time’ (M: 87%, NI: 77%, P < 0.01). The mean knowledge scores (correct answers) from Merseyside were significantly greater than from Northern Ireland (total score: M: 51%, NI: 43%P < 0.05; practical score: M: 58%, NI: 49%P < 0.05, theory score: M: 38%, NI: 31%, P < 0.05). The results indicate that the healthy food message seems to have been better learnt by children in Merseyside but results of surveys in Merseyside into eating habits suggest that many have not put this knowledge into practice.     

The role of housing vouchers in baltimore city,Maryland

In Baltimore City, the relative well-being of black and white families using Section 8 housing vouchers versus Section 8 housing certificates is compared. Logistic regression is used to examine whether the social and economic characteristics of a regional planning district play a significantly different role in the likelihood that a district will have voucher or certificate recipients. A second analysis examines the average monthly rent paid by blacks and whites for housing in the certificate and voucher programs. The results suggest that whites receive greater economic benefits in the voucher program than in the certificate program while blacks do not. This article is based on a paper entitled /’’ The Impact of Housing Vouchers on the Black Family,” which was funded by the Baltimore Urban League and presented at the National Conference of Political Scientist, March 1989.     

Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity

Both unconditional mixed normal distributions and GARCH modelswith fat-tailed conditional distributions have been employedin the literature for modeling financial data. We consider amixed normal distribution coupled with a GARCH-type structure(termed MN-GARCH) which allows for conditional variance in eachof the components as well as dynamic feedback between the components.Special cases and relationships with previously proposed specificationsare discussed and stationarity conditions are derived. For theempirically most relevant GARCH(1,1) case, the conditions forexistence of arbitrary integer moments are given and analyticexpressions of the unconditional skewness, kurtosis, and autocorrelationsof the squared process are derived. Finally, employing dailyreturn data on the NASDAQ index, we provide a detailed empiricalanalysis and compare both the in-sample fit and out-of-sampleforecasting performance of the MN-GARCH as well as recentlyproposed Markov-switching models. We show that the MN-GARCHapproach can generate a plausible disaggregation of the conditionalvariance process in which the components' volatility dynamicshave a clearly distinct behavior, which is, for example, compatiblewith the well-known leverage effect.     

The increased use of trade controls by the industrial countries

The increase in non-tariff barriers to trade in the industrial countries has given rise to much concern. This article attempts to summarize the formal non-tariff measures that have been introduced by the industrial countries to measure roughly how much trade is now affected by them.     

Diffusion Dynamics and Creative Destruction in a Simple Classical Model

The article explores the impact of the diffusion of new methods of production on output and employment growth and income distribution within a Classical one‐sector framework. Disequilibrium paths are studied analytically and in terms of simulations. Diffusion by differential growth affects aggregate dynamics through several channels. The analysis reveals the non‐steady nature of economic change and shows that the adaptation pattern depends both on the innovation's factor‐saving bias and on the extent of the bias, which determines the strength of the selection pressure on non‐innovators. The typology of different cases developed shows various aspects of Schumpeter's concept of creative destruction.     

Emerging Innovation in Emerging Economies: Can Institutional Reforms Help Russia Break Through Its Historical Barriers?

This article investigates Russia's historical and current innovation initiatives through the lens of institutional theory, utilizing the triple‐helix innovation model, which we have extended to include the context of Russian culture. The Russian government has embarked upon a national innovation policy and has committed billions of dollars with the goal of developing a knowledge‐based economy to enhance participation in the global arena, while simultaneously diversifying away from energy and natural resources. Historically, Russia has typically not succeeded with innovation beyond the idea, and sometimes product development, stages. Our primary conclusion is that the inadequacy of formal and informal institutional support has created historical barriers in Russia, some of which are currently being addressed to develop an innovation ecosystem encompassing a more supportive institutional infrastructure. The article concludes with implications for US firms and universities involved with innovation activities in Russia. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.