The interaction between capital controls and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the interaction between capital controls and exchange rate policies in developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s. We estimate a simultaneous-equations panel mixed logit model for the joint determination of two decisions. We find strong influences from de jure exchange rate regimes on capital account policies but somewhat weaker feedback impacts. With de facto exchange rate regimes the influences in both directions are similar to each other.     

R&D INTENSITY AND THE EFFECTIVE TAX RATE: A META-REGRESSION ANALYSIS

We apply meta-regression techniques to provide a quantitative review of the empirical literature on how research and development (R&D) expenses affect the effective tax rate (ETR). R&D expenses relate to a well-accepted profit shifting channel, strategic placement of intellectual property within a multinational entity. Using a unique hand-collected data set, we add a new perspective to the current base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) state of research and debate, in three ways: First, observing that primary studies report mixed evidence on how R&D expenses affect ETR, we provide a consensus estimate for this effect. Second, we consider this effect in more detail by separating a tax accounting effect and a profit shifting effect, which to our knowledge has not yet been investigated. We detect that one-third of the R&D effect on the ETR is due to the tax accounting effect and could be mitigated via book-tax conformity. We further find that 10% of the profit shifting effect can be traced back to R&D tax credits. Third, our meta-regression reveals factors that are possible sources of variation and bias in previous empirical studies.     

Natural resource-collection work and children's schooling in Malawi

This paper presents results of research that investigates if long hours of work spent by children in fuel wood and water-collection activities, i. e., natural resource-collection work, influence the likelihood that a child aged 6–14 attends school. Potential endogeneity of resource-collection work hours is corrected for, using two-stage conditional maximum likelihood estimation. Data from the 1997–1998 Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS) conducted by the Malawi National Statistics Office (NSO) in conjunction with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) are used. The study finds that Malawian children are significantly involved in resource-collection work and their likelihood of attending school decreases with increases in hours allocated to this work. The study further shows that girls spend more hours on resource-collection work and are more likely to be attending school while burdened by this work. Consequently, girls may find it difficult to progress well in school. However, girls are not necessarily less likely to be attending school. Results further show that presence of more women in a household is associated with a lower burden of resource-collection work on children and a higher probability of children's school attendance. Finally, the research shows that children from the most environmentally degraded districts of central and southern Malawi are less likely to attend school and relatively fewer of them have progressed to secondary school compared to those-from districts in the north.     

The choice of exchange rate regime: An empirical analysis for transition economies*

We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and international reserves sufficiency. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to exchange rate pegs also play important roles. Large government deficits have ambiguous effects; they increase the likelihood of moving from flexible to intermediate regimes as well as that of moving from fixed to intermediate ones.     

Buying Influence: Aid Fungibility in a Strategic Perspective

I study equilibria of non‐cooperative games between an aid donor and a recipient when there is conflict over the allocation of their combined budgets. The general conclusion is that a donor's influence over outcomes is increasing in the share of the available resources it controls; if this share is large enough, aid fungibility is not important as the donor achieves its most preferred allocation. The game‐theoretic approach to fungibility is contrasted with the traditional non‐strategic approach. I argue that the former is superior as it derives final allocations instead of assuming them, making analysis of the sources of influence over outcomes possible.     

Central Bank Policy in a More Perfect Financial System

Financial innovation increases markets' liquidity and provides economic agents with new instruments to better handle risks, but it reduces the efficacy of monetary policy while strengthening the logic and force of the “unholy trinity”. Increased liquidity of financial markets and increased leverage of financial positions imply that speculators can attack unsustainable fixed exchange rates faster and more powerfully than ever. The rapid innovation of new financial instruments in these markets also implies the futility to “throw sand in the wheels” through regulation or the introduction of transaction taxes. The higher asset substitutability generated by the emergence of derivatives makes the definition of “money,” particularly of broad monetary aggregates, increasingly difficult. In a more complete financial market system central banks find it harder to predict the effect of a given monetary impulse on real output and employment with any reasonable precision. Discretionary monetary policies aimed at output and employment become more uncertain. Consequently, central banks should focus on the long-run goal of price stability.     

Relative price risk in an open economy with fixed and flexible exchange rates

We analyze the choice between fixed and flexible exchange rates in the context of an open economy version of a multimarkets equilibrium model. In contrast to previous analysis, we separate the information and the shock-absorbing aspects of the two regimes. Under a relative price risk criterion, flexible exchange rates are preferable for a relatively open economy, the more so the less stable are domestic output demand and supply conditions. Fixed exchange rates are preferable for a relatively closed economy, especially so if domestic output demand and supply functions are relatively stable, and if the real balance effect in domestic output demand functions is strong.     

German dominance in the EMS: evidence from interest rates

The paper presents an empirical analysis of German dominance and asymmetries in the EMS based on a dynamic system of equations explaining national money market interest rates. The hypothesis of strict German dominance of the EMS is rejected. However, there are some noticeable asymmetries in the EMS. Germany is a relatively strong player and has been the least dependent country in the early phase of the system. Since 1983, German independence has diminished. In contrast, France throughout and Italy in the early phase of the EMS have been relatively weak players in the system.