Qual der Wahl? – Finanzpolitik zwischen Konsolidierung und Konjunkturstabilisierung

Einige ?konomen und Politiker fordern, den aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Abschwung in Deutschland durch ein Konjunkturprogramm zu d?mpfen. In der Regel werden Steuererleichterungen, eine Senkung der Sozialabgaben oder eine Erh?hung der ?ffentlichen Investitionen vorgeschlagen. Welche Wirkungen h?tten diese Ma?nahmen auf Einkommen, Besch?ftigung, Preisentwicklung und Budgetsaldo? Kann der Einsatz dieser Instrumente tats?chlich eine Konjunkturstabilisierung herbeiführen? Prof. Dr. Ullrich Heilemann, 63, ist Direktor des Instituts für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung (IEW) der Universit?t Leipzig; Stefan Wappler, 30, Dipl.-Volkswirt, Doz. Dr. Georg Quaas, 56, und Hagen Findeis, 26, Dipl.-Volkswirt, sind dort wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiter.     

Pension principles in the Swedish pension system

This article analyses the role of pension principles of funding and benefit provision for the development of the Swedish pension system. Focusing on four major public pension reforms in the twentieth century, it discusses why certain pension principles were used and under what circumstances they were more or less likely to change. The analysis shows that change was implemented to a large extent as a response to the previous pension system failing to fulfil its intended purpose in terms of financial stability, work incentives and redistribution.     

Schwaches Produktivitätswachstum — zyklisches oder strukturelles Phänomen?

Labour productivity growth in Germany and in the OECD countries has decelerated significantly in recent years. This observation is astonishing, given the fact that modern digital services can now be found throughout the economy. It may be a statistical artefact, but if it is a realistic observation, it should be investigated. The authors describe many reasons for this development. For example, the services sector, with its traditionally low productivity, makes up an increasingly large part of the economy. Moreover, the cost intensity of innovations is growing, and there are not enough innovative investments. What should be done? Reforms are suggested which aim at exploiting unused potential and create suitable conditions for facilitating sustainable productivity increases. Important policy areas include digitisation, energy transition and demographic change. But reforms must also be thought of as investments into the capacity of employees to work productively.     

善用大数据“资产”

正成功的关键因素是首先要把数据看作是资产——作为建立价值主张和商业模式的基础;其次,努力培养利用大数据潜能的各种能力,或许最重要的是要用创新的方式打破现有的商业模式"创新,究其本质,意味着迈出一大步,做出重大变革……实际上,创新之前最佳的‘做事方式’在创新之后就不再是最佳方式了。"20世纪著名经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼德的话,反映出大数据的潜能,它可以创造性地破坏现有的商业模式。世界数据总量的90%是在过去两年产生的,预计全球商业数据量每1.2年就翻1倍,2020年产生的数据量将是2009年的44倍。     

Psychometrically and qualitatively validating a cross-national cumulative measure of fear-based xenophobia

The article reports the results of a Mokken Scale Procedure (MSP) developing a hierarchical cross-national scale to measure xenophobia, and a qualitative validation of this scale. A pool of 30 xenophobic scale items were collected from several sources and edited according to established unidimensional criteria. The survey was administered to 608 undergraduate students in the USA, 193 undergraduate students in the Netherlands, and 303 undergraduate students in Norway. Fourteen scale statements measuring perceived threat or fear and meeting the criteria of the Stereotype Content Model (e.g., Fiske et al. in Trends Cogn Sci 11:77–83, 2006) were selected for further analysis. A separate item analysis and subsequently MSP analysis yielded a cumulative scale with the same five items for each of the three samples meeting criteria for homogeneity in all samples with H >.40. The result, a cross-national 5-item scale measuring fear-based xenophobia, was tested by means of the Three-Step Test-Interview (Hak et al. in Surv Res Methods 2:143–150, 2008) with 10 students in The Netherlands and 10 students in Norway. The analysis of these qualitative interviews shows that individual respondents’ criteria for the ranking of the scale items strongly depend on the way immigrants are framed. Ranking according to different levels of fear turned out to be only one criterion out of several possible ones used by individual respondents.     

Peer-to-Peer-Absicherung privater Risiken: Eine Exploration am Beispiel von Wildschaden

This paper examines the extent to which business model development is an effective method of surmounting market failure in the insurance industry. In particular, it endeavours to demonstrate that replacing the traditional relationship between the insured and the insurer with a bilateral agreement opens up new markets, thus enabling hitherto non-insurable risks to be covered by new peer-to-peer business models. The insurance against risks caused by wild animals was chosen as the empirical field, since it is known to be an area which exhibits market failure. Based on 16 episodic interviews with representatives of the hunting community, demand structures and relevant contextual factors are revealed and analysed in terms of risk coverage and claims management among community members. This paper thus proposes an alternative position to that of the traditional insurance business, in which cover is based on a large and diversified risk group.     

Fiscal restrictions and monetary union: Rationales,repercussions, reforms

We offer a critique of the fiscal preconditions for participation in Stage III of EMU and the Excessive Deficit Procedure of the Maastricht Treaty. We show that the high output costs associated with meeting the fiscal preconditions in Stage II and the incompatibility of the reference values for fiscal policy with other convergence criteria make it unlikely that a mechanical interpretation of those conditions will govern admission to Stage III. Knowledge of this fact will deter governments from undertaking major fiscal adjustments in the first place. Hence, the fiscal criteria of the treaty will not function as an efficient filter for distinguishing countries that are and are not prepared to live with the fiscal consequences of EMU.In Stage III, the function of the Excessive Deficit Procedure is to buttress the European Central Bank's protection from demands for a central bank bailout in the event of a debt crisis in a participating state. We show that other aspects of EU fiscal structure, namely the retention by member states of the bulk of their own revenue-raising capacity, should suffice to restrain the demand for a central bank bailout and the pressure on the ECB to supply it. Until political union follows monetary union, leading to the centralization of fiscal functions and revenu-raising capacity in the EU itself, the Excessive Deficit Procedure will be redundant. If there remains any reason to doubt the credibility of the no-bailout rule, then the best way to buttress it is directly, by further insulating the ECB from pressure to extend a bailout.If it is felt that policy in EU member states is biased toward excessive deficits, then the appropriate place to address this problem is at the national level. A limited approach would involve steps to insure that negotiations over the budget occur in the context of a firm general constraint on the overall level of spending. A more far-reaching reform would involve the creation of National Debt Boards to offset the prevailing bias.     

Ambiguity Acceptance as a Function of Project Management: A New Critical Success Factor

This research examines the relationship between ambiguity acceptance and customer and organizational outcomes within the Six Sigma improvement project context. Results find a curvilinear relationship between open communication and customer outcomes for project leaders. Results of multiple regression find a significant positive relationship between open communication and organization outcomes, as well as a significant positive relationship between ambiguity acceptance and customer and organizational outcomes for team leaders, while there is a significant positive relationship between ambiguity acceptance and customer and organizational outcomes for team members. Theoretical and practical implications are examined.