Dynamisierung kapitalgedeckter Altersvorsorge

On the basis of the annual reports of all the life insurance companies covered by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), the adjustment of payments over the time period 2002 to 2012 is analysed for Germany. The analysis unveils large differences in the adjustment rates of the insurers, not only among companies but also over time. Therefore a steady income stream, a constant income level and the reliability of payments are not ensured for policy holders. In general, the adjustments lead to increasing inequality of income during retirement and rising income heterogeneity in private households. Even worse, these forms of income provision during retirement are not able to compensate for the reduction in the benefit level of statutory old age provision in Germany.     

Modelling CAP Decoupling in the EU: A Comparison of Selected Simulation Models and Results

This article reviews ways of representing the effects of decoupling in the European Union (EU) on land allocation and production in eight selected simulation models (AGLINK, AG‐MEMOD, CAPRI, CAPSIM, ESIM, FAPRI, GOAL and GTAP). It then compares the simulated effects of decoupling and traces them back to the model specifications and parameter assumptions. In particular, roughage is not included in most models, so that changes in ruminant production are not necessarily consistent with the changes in fodder area. Models also differ in the extent to which they reflect the substitution possibilities in ruminant feeds. Notwithstanding the considerable differences in model types and specifications, all the studies considered here predict that as a result of decoupling, areas allocated to cereals (and silage maize) and beef and sheep production in the EU‐15 will decline, while fodder area will increase. Differences in the projections about pasture, oilseed and set‐aside areas can be attributed to different model or scenario specifications. The most important factor affecting the results is the extent to which the models assume that the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2003 Reform (regarding Single Farm Payments) involves a substantial decoupling of support compared with the baseline (Agenda 2000) policy.     

UN overestimates the level of development in central and East Europe

Conclusion With the HDI, the UNDP has attempted to construct a new development indicator which conveys the human development of a country by means of a Single National index number. This deserves recognition as a long overdue step towards the removal of Gross Product as the main indicator of development, putting as it does the development and employment of human abilities and resources in the centre of development efforts. The questionable results generated by the HDI show, however, that the index in its current form has many faults. It is time for the UNDP to change the HDI so that it better reflects differences in development between individual countries. Except for a few developing countries, which could see these results as a welcome reason for demanding increasing development aid at the expense of the transformation countries, nobody benefits if the UNDP certifies the Central and East European countries as having a level of development which they are still far from reaching.     

I. Allgemeine wirstchaftslehre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

II. Allgemeine und angewandte Statistik

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Price uncertainty,future markets and correlation

This paper examines the optimal trade and hedging decisions of a competitive exporting firm which faces concurrently hedgeable exchange rate risk and non‐hedgeable inflation risk. The macroeconomic interaction between exchange rate and domestic inflation rate risk is described by a state variable. The (strong) correlation is pivotal in determining the optimal risk management. It is shown how optimal hedging strategies are affected by state‐dependent preferences of the firm. The optimal hedge policy is to minimize the variation of marginal utility of final wealth across states of nature instead of minimizing the variance of final wealth.