从泰勒规则到伊文思规则——美联储利率决策框架的演变及未来发展

本文对美联储20世纪90年代以来的利率决策规则的演变作了分析论述,并将该演变过程划分为三个阶段。本文着重对最近的创新规则——采用通货膨胀预期和失业率作为利率决策阈值的"伊文思规则"作了分析和比较,并对其局限与挑战以及近期可能的走势作了分析和预期。在此基础上,本文对美联储未来可能的利率决策规则的理论基础、关键要素、决策框架作了分析预期,并作出前瞻性猜想,提出美联储未来在常规状态下的利率决策规则可能回归传统泰勒规则,同时纳入名义GDP要素,同时将更加注重经济增长率目标和货币供应总量指标,并可能更加倾向于采用灵活的通货膨胀目标,以及前瞻性数据。     

企业集团审计师变更与审计意见购买

审计意见购买是学术界和监管部门都十分关注的话题,但以往研究多以单个上市公司为对象来研究审计师变更和审计意见购买,且国内外的经验研究一直未得到一致的结论。考虑到在新兴市场国家,企业集团是主要的企业组织形式,本文以企业集团作为一个整体进行研究,发现审计师对集团内任何一家上市公司出具非标准审计意见,可能导致集团内多家上市公司变更该事务所的审计业务;企业集团通过变更事务所能够实现审计意见改善。此外,变更对象不同,变更后果也不同,首次审计该集团业务的审计师更容易屈服于集团,更容易被收买。     

The effect of financial constraints,investment policy,product market competition and corporate governance on the value of cash holdings

This study empirically investigates the value shareholders place on excess cash holdings and how shareholders’ valuation of cash holdings is associated with financial constraints, firm growth, cash‐flow uncertainty and product market competition for Australian firms from 1990 to 2007. Our results indicate that the marginal value of cash holdings to shareholders declines with larger cash holdings and higher leverage. However, firms that are more financially constrained, that have higher growth rates and that face greater uncertainty exhibit a higher marginal value of cash holdings. These findings are consistent with the explanation that excess cash holdings are not necessarily detrimental to firm value. Firms with costly external financing and that also save more cash for current operating and future investing needs find that the market values these cash hoarding policies favourably. Finally, there is limited evidence of an association between various corporate governance measures and the value of cash holdings for a shorter sample period.     

Dealer spread and portfolio selection under price risks: evidence from the gold service industry

The bid and ask quotes as well as portfolio selection decisions of gold dealers who face a gold price risk are investigated within a continuous-time framework. The research integrates into a systematic analysis the decision of asset allocation in financial economics as well as the decision of a bid–ask spread in a market microstructure. The holding rate of gold is correlated to the intensity and jump size of the Poisson process, which is a hedging demand for gold assets against the risk of extreme events. According to empirical analysis from the gold service industries, the gold spread return is related to the expected return, volatility and jump risks of gold prices.     

中国企业海外并购的股权策略选择

本文通过实证方法研究了中国企业海外并购的股权策略,对所选样本进行了单因素方差分析和回归分析,并检验了关于海外并购股权策略影响因素的若干假设.实证分析表明,东道国与我国文化距离越大、市场开放度越高,我国企业海外并购越倾向于选择高控制的股权策略;国有企业实施的海外并购、以发达国家企业为标的的并购更多地选择低控制的股权策略;此外,涉及自然资源与能源行业、东道国商业环境等因素对于海外并购的股权策略也具有显著影响,但影响方式不确定.     

代际货币转移对中国农村老年人卫生服务利用的影响研究

采用Andersen卫生服务利用行为模型,研究了净货币转移对中国农村老年人门诊服务利用数量的作用。采用多级分层的方法调查老年人(1050例),研究可利用资源和所需因素之间的相互作用,同时利用泊松回归对主效应和交互效应进行研究。净货币转移与门诊服务利用数量并不相关,但净货币转移与自评健康之间的交互作用的确存在。自评健康状况差或一般的老年人,以及获得较多净货币转移的老年人,使用门诊服务更为频繁。老年人对医疗服务的利用主要与健康需求有关。建议提供与支付能力相当的医疗保险,加强对农村老年人的公共援助。     

Guanxi Networks,Buyer-Seller Relationships,and Farmers' Participation in Modern Vegetable Markets in China

The aim of this study is to investigate the joint effects of small-scale farmers’ guanxi networks and buyer-seller relationships on their marketing behavior in China. A survey of 167 vegetable farmers shows that farmers' guanxi networks have significant effect on trusting relationship building with buyers and on their investment behavior for transactional specific assets. Guanxi networks also help to improve farmers’ participation in modern high-value markets (e.g., supermarkets and international markets) and encourage relational transactions. Farmers’ modern market participation will be further enhanced by trusting buyer-seller relationships with buyers and complying with buyers' quality requirements. The application of formal contracts, on the other hand, is closely related to farmers’ trusting relationships with buyers and transactional specific assets for vegetable transactions. Some policy implications are discussed.     

河湖岸线分类体系及保护与利用对策研究

本文总结了分别考虑自然和社会功能的河湖岸线分类方法,分析了全国重点河湖岸线的开发利用现状及未来需求.基于河湖岸线的自然特征和社会功能双重属性,从可行性、可操作性和便于管理的角度提出适合于我国基本国情的河湖岸线分类标准,开出河湖岸线保护与利用的有效"药方".研究可为生态优先、绿色发展理念下的河湖岸线保护和高效利用及水域岸...     

基于协方差调整的久期——凸度免疫策略分析

众所周知,简单久期—凸度免疫策略中隐含两个假设:水平收益率曲线及其平行变动。针对这两个假设与实际情况不符的问题,本文借鉴Carcano和Foresi(1997)的思想,建立了一个基于协方差调整的一般久期—凸度免疫模型,并用两资产对冲组合和三资产对冲组合进行了具体分析。进一步,我们采用上海证券交易所上市的国债交易数据对一般模型的免疫效果进行了检验,结果显示基于协方差调整的久期—凸度免疫策略比简单久期—凸度免疫策略具有相对较强的免疫能力。     

对当前货币现象与宏观调控的几点思考

当前我国经济继续保持平稳快速发展,但国际收支持续呈现"双顺差"格局,美国次贷危机使得世界经济增长放缓,在美元贬值的大环境之下,由于国内流动性过剩矛盾尚未缓解、价格上涨的压力明显等因素,导致人民币在对外升值的同时,对内贬值的压力正不断加大,而这一货币现象在我国出现,对我国的货币政策乃至宏现调控都将带来挑战.