The effect of the Uruguay round on the intensive and extensive margins of trade

Do tariffs inhibit trade flows by limiting the entry of exporters (‘firm extensive margin’) or by restricting the average volume exported by each firm (‘firm intensive margin’)? Using a gravity equation approach, we analyze how the decrease in tariffs promoted during the 90s by the Uruguay Round multilateral trade agreement affected the trade margins of French firms for 57 sectors and 147 countries from 1993 to 2002. Our main contribution is to estimate the elasticity of trade on both margins, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity of trade flows thanks to a three-dimensional panel and to time-varying tariffs as a measure of variable trade costs. Our results show that the number of firms exporting in a given sector to a given destination is related to the level of tariffs. But they also show that the decrease in tariffs induced by the implementation of the Uruguay Round did not lead more firms to export and that it only induced incumbent exporters to increase their shipments. We control for two problems that may affect our basic specification: tariff changes may be endogenous and zero flows are not included. Our results are confirmed — even when the extensive margin is significant, its magnitude is very small.     

What are you?: pragmatic,self-confident, #hashtag or a vital senior? Using marketing to curb alcoholism and encourage healthy consumption!

From a public administration approach, alcohol consumption is responsible for 3.8% of overall mortality. From a private approach, companies in the alcohol industry are faced with increasing competition, which forces them to focus their business more while promoting responsible consumption.

In this scene, an empirical investigation was carried out to determine the individual and environmental factors with most impact on alcohol consumption in the Spanish market. 1031 valid responses were obtained. Using multivariate techniques, four different consumer groups of highly alcoholic vs. slightly alcoholic beverages were identified: Pragmatic group; Self-confident group; #hashtag group and Vital Seniors group. Based on the variables (individual and environmental) that significantly define each cluster, two groups of managerial implications were stated: (i) four to recommend private managers how to reach each cluster of alcohol consumers; (ii) three to recommend public authorities how to deal with the most problematic areas (curb alcoholism & encourage healthy consumption).     

On general periodic time-varying bilinear processes

We study in this note the class of bilinear processes with periodic time-varying coefficients. We give necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of strict and second order stationary solutions (in periodic sense) and for the existence of higher order moments. The given conditions can be applied to periodic ARMA or periodic GARCH models. The central limit theorem and the law of iterated logarithm (LIL) for higher order sample moments are showed.     

The Green Paradox and the importance of endogenous resource exploration

It has been proposed that climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use may actually worsen the problem of global warming. Such a Green Paradox could occur if fossil fuel resource owners exploit their resources more rapidly due to the expectation of stricter climate policies in the future. This article shows that the emergence of the Green Paradox is less plausible if exploration activities are taken into account. An extraction model that incorporates exploration investments finds that an increasing cash flow tax is effective in dealing with climate change depending upon the specific formulation of the tax scheme. For example, the higher the initial tax level, the more effective is the tax scheme in mitigating climate change and hence a Green Paradox can be avoided. A very low growth rate is also beneficial for the climate as it leads to a small temporal redistribution of extraction to earlier periods. A very high growth rate leads to faster extraction; however, it also coincides with a significant decrease in total emissions that is inconsistent with a Green Paradox.     

Determinants of loyalty and recommendation: The role of perceived service quality,emotional satisfaction and image

This study develops and tests a model for the determinants of loyalty and recommendation. The model considers three drivers – perceived service quality, emotional satisfaction and image – that are positively related to each other and positively influence loyalty and recommendation. The model is tested using data from a survey of 222 Tunisian bank service customers. The hypotheses, which were tested using structural equation modelling, are all supported. The results confirm that perceived service quality, emotional satisfaction and image are key drivers of loyalty and recommendation. The research emphasizes the role of emotional satisfaction and image as mediating variables between perceived service quality and loyalty/recommendation. The study also shows that a better understanding of the determinants of behavioural intentions in the banking industry occurs when affective dimensions are considered along with cognitive ones.