REPORT OF A CONFERENCE ON THE PROPOSALS FOR REVISION OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, HELD BY THE CONFERENCE ON RESEARCH IN INCOME AND WEALTH

This report summarizes the proceedings of a series of meetings called by the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research in June of 1966. The major conclusions of the conference, as transmitted to the Statistical Office of the United Nations, were as follows: (1) The aim of integrating the various parts of the system of national accounts, including input-output and financial transactions, is to be welcomed. (2) The more recently developed parts of the system need considerably more work to reach the same level of clarity and usefulness which the national income and product accounts have acquired. (3) Some simplification of the proposed basic system should be considered, involving the identification of a minimum of information that should and could be provided by all countries. (4) In line with the conference's overriding interest in national accounts as an instrument for economic analysis and a means of more informed policy formation, the proposed system needs considerable strengthening in the field of income distribution.     

An empirical analysis of property appraisal and mortgage redlining

The recent literature advances a hypothesis that addresses the possibility of mortgage redlining caused by a dynamic information externality in property appraisals and mortgage lending. In particular, Lang and Nakamura (1993) hypothesize that because property appraisals depend on past transactions, appraisals in neighborhoods where transactions were infrequent tend to be less precise. The greater uncertainty about house valuation in such neighborhoods can lead mortgage lenders to impose stringent requirements on borrowers. Lang and Nakamura's article, like most economic analysis of property appraisals, is theoretical. Using a sample of mortgages purchased by Fannie Mae, we present preliminary research results that cast doubt on appraisal behavioral rules such as weighted averages or backward-looking expectations on which Lang and Nakamura and other theoretical studies are based. Instead, our results refocus attention on the moral hazard issues of appraisal. We find that in more than 80 percent of the cases, the appraisal is between 0 and 5 percent above the transaction purchase price, in only 5 percent of the cases is the appraisal lower, and in 30 percent of the cases, the appraisal and transaction prices are identical. It would take a strong statistical model to generate such occurrences. Our resutls also indicate that appraisal outcomes are used as a risk factor with different weights for loans with different characteristics (loan-to-value ratios and house prices). The results suggest that more empirical investigation of appraisal practices be conducted to verify the validity of conventional wisdom embedded in theoretical studies, and we offer an econometric framework toward this end.     

An Analysis of the Ex Ante Probabilities of Mortgage Prepayment and Default

Observed mortgage prepayment and default rates have been far different than the ruthless option exercise rates predicted by contingent claims models of mortgage pricing. The discrepancies have been attributed to both the competing-risk nature of prepayment and default and to transactions costs. This paper tries a different means of reconciliation. We introduce a third stochastic process, household income, into the usual pricing model that includes only the spot interest rate and the house price. The presence of income allows considering consumption-theoretic determinants of termination. The role of mortgage underwriting rules in restricting optimal prepayment is also explicitly modeled. Numerical ex ante prepayment and default rates based on the theoretical model come much closer to historical experience.     

Early Career Outcomes of Graduate Employees: the Effect of Mentoring and Ingratiation*

Underpinned by the growing recognition of influence processes or a careerist orientation in the determination of career success, this study examined the effect of career-oriented mentoring, ingratiation and their interaction term on the career success measures of salary, number of promotions received and career satisfaction. Data were obtained through structured questionnaires from graduate employees (N= 432) working full-time in Hong Kong. Results of the ordinary least-squares regression analyses revealed a non-significant effect of career-oriented mentoring, ingratiation and their interaction term on salary. Career-oriented mentoring was, however, significantly positively related to number of promotions received and career satisfaction. Although the results reinforced the dominance of the traditional determinants of career success, the significant effect of career-oriented mentoring on two of the career success measures may help to paint a more realistic picture of the process of career success in organizations. Limitations of the study, directions for future research and implications of the findings are discussed.     

Corporate decision making in the presence of political uncertainty: The case of corporate cash holdings

Using a quarterly panel of U.S. corporations over the period 1985–2014, we show that corporate managers respond to political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty shocks in different ways. We proxy for political uncertainty using the Partisan Conflict Index and employ a prevalent empirical macroeconomic methodology to construct structural shocks that are orthogonal to shocks captured by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Following a political uncertainty shock, corporations increase cash but do not adjust investment. Alternatively, following an economic policy uncertainty shock, firms appear to draw on cash and reduce capital spending to increase research and development spending.     

Racial and ethnic differences in housing demand: An econometric investigation

This article empirically investigates the sources of housing demand differences between racial (black and white) and ethnic (Hispanic and non-Hispanic) groups. We estimate the tenure-adjusted housing demand equations from the 1989 American Housing Survey (AHS) national sample data and measure the effects of different sources for demand disparities in housing demand, but much less so in explaining racial differences in housing demand. Specifically, 98% (96%) of the housing demand differences between Hispanic and non-Hispanic owners (renters) is due to differences in group endowments. For the racial groups, 29% (51%) of the housing demand differences between black and white owners (renters) is attributable to differences in group endowments. The residual differences explain 71% and 49% of the black-white differentials for owners and renters, respectively. The residual components in our model capture the effect of institutional and structural factors intrinsic to the housing market (such as racial discrimination or residential segregation) and/or the influence of important omitted or harder-tomeasure variables correlated with race or ethnicity (such as wealth, employment history, credit history, and cultural differences in housing consumption).     

Factors affecting the effectiveness and acceptance of electronic selection systems

There has been a rise in the use of electronic selection (e-selection) systems in organizations. Given the widespread use of these systems, this article reviews the factors that affect their effectiveness and acceptance by job applicants (applicant acceptance), and offers directions for future research on the topic. In particular, we examine the effectiveness and acceptance of these systems at each stage of the selection process including (a) job analysis, (b) job application, (c) pre-employment testing, (d) interviewing, (e) selection decision-making, and (f) evaluation and validation. We also consider their potential for adverse impact and invasion of privacy. Finally, we present some implications for e-selection system design and implementation.