Merger Announcements and Insider Trading Activity: An Empirical Investigation

This paper provides evidence of excess returns earned by investors in acquired firms prior to the first public announcement of planned mergers. The study is distinguished from earlier merger studies in its use of daily holding period returns for the 194 firms sampled. The results confirm statistically what most traders already know. Impending merger announcements are poorly held secrets, and trading on this nonpublic information abounds. Specifically, leakage of inside information is a pervasive problem occurring at a significant level up to 12 trading days prior to the first public announcement of a proposed merger.     

Programming Solutions to Capital Rationing Problems

Mathematical programming approaches to the choice of capital expenditure projects under conditions of funds constraint have been widely advocated in the literature of finance. The present paper takes exception to such suggestions, and concludes that programming is not only excessively costly and complex for most practical applications, but is frequently incorrect in the decisions it implies. A technique for allocating funds via an adjusted Excess Present Value Index is developed and proposed as a superior analytical framework.     

ACCOUNTING FOR POPULATION AGEING IN TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING BY SURVEY REWEIGHTING*

This paper investigates the use of sample reweighting, in a behavioural tax microsimulation model, to examine the implications for government taxes and expenditure of population ageing in Australia. First, a calibration approach to sample reweighting is described, producing new weights that achieve specified population totals for selected variables. Second, the performance of the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) weights provided with the 2000–2001 Survey of Income and Housing Cost (SIHC) was examined and it was found that reweighting does not improve the simulation outcomes for the 2001 situation, so the original ABS weights were retained for 2001. Third, the implications of changes in the age distribution of the population were examined, based on population projections to 2050. A ‘pure’ change in the age distribution was examined by keeping the aggregate population size fixed and changing only the relative frequencies in different age‐gender groups. Finally, the effects of a policy change to benefit taper rates in Australia were compared for 2001 and 2050 population weights. It is suggested that this type of exercise provides an insight into the implications for government income tax revenue and social security expenditure of changes in the population, indicating likely pressures for policy changes.     

Does Weak Governance Cause Weak Stock Returns? An Examination of Firm Operating Performance and Investors' Expectations

We investigate Gompers, Ishii, and Metrick's (2003) finding that firms with weak shareholder rights exhibit significant stock market underperformance. If the relation between poor governance and poor returns is causal, we expect that the market is negatively surprised by the poor operating performance of weak governance firms. We find that firms with weak shareholder rights exhibit significant operating underperformance. However, analysts' forecast errors and earnings announcement returns show no evidence that this underperformance surprises the market. Our results are robust to controls for takeover activity. Overall, our results do not support the hypothesis that weak governance causes poor stock returns.     

Consumers and Competition in Health Care: The Case of Denturism

Denturism is the making and fitting of dentures directly for the public by nondentists. It is an example of potential competitive entry in a health services market and, like other such examples, its economic benefits must be weighed against any threat to the public health and safety. This article examines evidence relating to the economic benefits to consumers of legalizing denturism. Conservative estimates are presented of the economic benefits to consumers that would accrue under alternative institutional arrangements. Under several such arrangements it was found that the value of benefits is of the same order of magnitude as total government expenditures on dental services.     

Housing Interest Rate Deregulation and the Campbell Report*

It is argued that deregulation of housing interest rates would, under plausible assumptions, substantially increase the cost of housing finance in Australia, contrary to the impression created by the Final Report of the Australian Financial System Inquiry (the Campbell Report). Characteristics of the market for owner-occupier housing finance, on both the demand and supply sides, suggest that the deregulated market rate will be approximately equal to the uncontrolled rate under regulation. The weighted average interest rate for owner-occupier housing finance at December 1981 is more than three percentage points below the uncontrolled rate. The authors conclude that while this result does not of itself constitute an argument against deregulation, it does imply that deregulation would have a substantial distributional impact .     

The Challenge of Human Resources Development

A productive workforce depends on a country's educational system, the quality of its health care, training and retraining opportunities, its family policy, its labor policies with or without unions, and the quality of public services. On all counts, a significant portion of the U.S. workforce is in serious trouble. Numerous community cases and experience abroad teach that ideological boundaries in the United States inhibit the formation of new partnerships, coalitions, and forums essential to the development of more productive human resources     

Egoistic Rationality and Public Choice: A Critical Review of Theory and Evidence*

Over the past 20 years there has been a rapid development of public-choice theory: that is, the application of an assumption of egoistic utility maximization to political behaviour. In this paper it is argued that, in important areas, the available empirical evidence runs counter to this theory. The continuing work in this area therefore reflects ideological, rather than explanatory or predictive, concerns.