Information Systems for “Wicked Problems”

The objective of this commentary is to propose fruitful research directions built upon the reciprocal interplay of social media and collective intelligence. We focus on “wicked problems” – a class of problems that Introne et al. (Künstl. Intell. 27:45–52, 2013) call “problems for which no single computational formulation of the problem is sufficient, for which different stakeholders do not even agree on what the problem really is, and for which there are no right or wrong answers, only answers that are better or worse from different points of view”. We argue that information systems research in particular can aid in designing appropriate systems due to benefits derived from the combined perspectives of both social media and collective intelligence. We document the relevance and timeliness of social media and collective intelligence for business and information systems engineering, pinpoint needed functionality of information systems for wicked problems, describe related research challenges, highlight prospective suitable methods to tackle those challenges, and review examples of initial results.     

The impact of decoupled subsidies on productivity in agriculture: a cross‐country analysis using microdata

The decoupling of direct payments from production introduced in the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is expected to make production decisions more market‐oriented and farmers more productive. However, ex‐post analyses of the productivity of farms have yet to uncover any evidence of a positive impact of the decoupling policy on farm productivity. Using Irish, Danish, and Dutch farm‐level data, we identify whether the decoupling policy has contributed to productivity growth in agriculture and farm product adjustment behavior. We find some evidence that the decoupling policy had significant positive effects on farm productivity and behavioral changes related to farm specialization.     

Cybersecurity: Stakeholder incentives,externalities, and policy options

Information security breaches are increasingly motivated by fraudulent and criminal motives. Reducing their considerable costs has become a pressing issue. Although cybersecurity has strong public good characteristics, most information security decisions are made by individual stakeholders. Due to the interconnectedness of cyberspace, these decentralized decisions are afflicted with externalities that can result in sub-optimal security levels. Devising effective solutions to this problem is complicated by the global nature of cyberspace, the interdependence of stakeholders, as well as the diversity and heterogeneity of players. The paper develops a framework for studying the co-evolution of the markets for cybercrime and cybersecurity. It examines the incentives of stakeholders to provide for security and their implications for the ICT ecosystem. The findings show that market and non-market relations in the information infrastructure generate many security-enhancing incentives. However, pervasive externalities remain that can only be corrected by voluntary or government-led collective measures.     

The Europeanization of organic agriculture and conflicts over agricultural policy

Organic agriculture was Europeanized through two EU regulations which defined and provided financial support for it. In transposing these regulations, member states have had to deal with political aspects of the conflict between mainstream and organic agriculture. A comparison of 13 new (including former socialist states) and old member states illustrates that the level of conflict had an impact only on the level of financial support transposed, while other aspects of transposition were explained by formal institutional preconditions. Low financial support was found in those member states with a high level of conflict or a low value-based level of conflict. Medium financial support was found in one new and one old member state characterized by medium level conflicts. High financial support appeared in three member states characterized by truly low level conflicts in terms of common organic and mainstream agriculture interests.     

Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze a large panel of individual forecasts that has not previously been analyzed in the literature. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all G7-countries and for four different macroeconomic variables. Our results show a high degree of dispersion of forecast accuracy across forecasters. We also find that there are large differences in the performances of forecasters, not only across countries but also across different macroeconomic variables. In general, the forecasts tend to be biased in situations where the forecasters have to learn about large structural shocks or gradual changes in the trend of a variable. Furthermore, while a sizable fraction of forecasters seem to smooth their GDP forecasts significantly, this does not apply to forecasts made for other macroeconomic variables.     

Business and Marketing Ethics as Professional Ethics. Concepts, Approaches and Typologies

Marketing ethics is normally marketed as a sub-specialization of business ethics. In this paper, marketing ethics serves as an umbrella term for advertising, PR and sales ethics and as an example of professional ethics. To structure the paper, four approaches are distinguished, with a focus on typical professional conflicts, codes, roles or climates respectively. Since the moral climate approachis more inclusive than the other approaches, the last part of the paper deals mainly with moral climates, within the above-mentioned marketing sub-professions.     

Asymptotic expected number of Nash equilibria of two-player normal form games

The formula given by McLennan [The mean number of real roots of a multihomogeneous system of polynomial equations, Amer. J. Math. 124 (2002) 49–73] is applied to the mean number of Nash equilibria of random two-player normal form games in which the two players have M and N pure strategies respectively. Holding M fixed while N→∞, the expected number of Nash equilibria is approximately . Letting M=N→∞, the expected number of Nash equilibria is , where is a constant, and almost all equilibria have each player assigning positive probability to approximately 31.5915 percent of her pure strategies.     

Order book characteristics and the volume–volatility relation: Empirical evidence from a limit order market

Using unique data, we address the issue of price formation in a limit order market. A standard volume–volatility relation is documented with the number of trades acting as the important component of volume. The main contribution of the paper is to identify strong evidence that volume, volatility, and the volume–volatility relation are negatively related to the order book slope. These results are robust to the inclusion of several liquidity measures. A significant empirical relationship between the order book slope and the coefficient of variation in earnings forecasts by financial analysts suggests that the slope is proxying for disagreement among investors. Hence, our results support models where investor heterogeneity intensifies the volume–volatility relation.