美国：危险的消费者借贷

次贷危机又被称为次级房贷危机,是一场发生在美国,因次级抵押贷款机构破产、投资基金被迫关闭以及股市剧烈震荡引起的金融风暴。它致使全球主要金融市场出现流动性不足危机。美国次贷危机从2006春季逐步显现，在2006年之前的5年里，由于美国住房市场持续繁荣，加上前几年利率水平较低，美国的次级抵押贷款市场迅速发展。由于短期利率的提高，     

The effect of institutional quality on firm export performance in emerging economies: a contingency model of firm age and size

It is widely accepted that countries with sound formal and informal institutions create more robust environments for firm performance. However, due to the liabilities faced by firms without available slack and/or market power, we contend that institutions are especially important for new and small firms. Unfortunately, there is little research examining the potential moderating effect of firm size or age on the relationship between institutional quality and export performance. In response, we hypothesize that institutional quality will be more important to increasing the export performance of new and small firms compared with their large, established counterparts. We test our hypotheses using data from the World Bank’s World Business Environment Survey. The results of our analyses offer support for our model, although some institutional variables appear to be more important to export performance than others. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results.     

How long might the younger-old live: A predictive model

Life expectancy amongst older people in industrialised countries has been improving over an extended period and still continues to do so. This has ramifications for providers of services to this population, thus necessitating a level of forward planning. Predictive models of remaining life expectancy for older age groups can assist long-term planning processes. This paper presents an extrapolative approach to forecasting remaining life expectancy. Based on logistic modelling of historic mortality and survivorship for the “younger-old” male population of England and Wales over the period 1970-2005, a parsimonious two-parameter model is derived. This model provides a close correspondence to published period life table data. Trends in these parameters are then fitted and extrapolated to enable projections of life expectancy up to 40 years into the future. Alternative assumptions are used to determine a range of future life expectancy trajectories for a 65-year-old male. Occupational pension scheme provision is identified as an area of particular concern in the context of increasing longevity. As an illustration, the life expectancy trajectories are combined with differing discount rate assumptions to generate a number of alternative pension liability scenarios for the extrapolation period.     

Will tighter futures price limits decrease hedge effectiveness?

The events triggered by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have led to calls for the regulation of financial markets. Given that regulation may involve opportunity costs, this paper examines whether tighter futures price limits can reduce the effectiveness of a futures hedge. We propose a new model that uncovers the underlying spot-futures dynamics when futures prices are subject to limits. We use the model to determine the maximum number of limit days that can occur before minimum variance hedging outcomes are adversely affected. Application of this model to the US soybean and corn markets reveals that existing limits do not reduce hedge effectiveness. If the frequency of limit days increases from current levels of 1% to approximately 3–4%, conventional hedging approaches will experience economically and statistically significant increases in portfolio variance. These results are important for hedgers, clearing houses and regulators in light of the recent calls for derivatives regulation.     

Consuming in one's mind: An exploration

Consumer research generally focuses on the consumption of tangible objects and experiences, which are concrete. However, consumers often consume in their minds by fantasizing, dreaming, or imagining that they possess some desired object or that they are living some experience. In this article, the term consumption dreams is used to refer to mental representations of consumption objects that consumers desire and experiences that they want to realize. These are distinguished from uncontrolled mental activities that occur when asleep. The results of two exploratory studies that examined consumption dreams are presented. In the first study, five adult consumers were asked about their most important consumption dream, as well as the factors that influenced this dream and the behaviors that ensued. The second study consisted of a survey of 195 adult consumers where the determinants and consequences of consumption dreaming were probed. It was found that indulging in consumption dreaming is a common activity among most consumers and that consumption dreams and their characteristics depend on general as well as dream‐based variables. In addition, those dreams were found to impact on several consumer behaviors. A causal model involving a subset of the variables examined in this exploratory research was put forward and tested with the survey data. The results showed the value of a proposed conceptual framework to generate theoretical propositions about consumption dreaming. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

An integrated tax-subsidy policy for carbon emission reduction

A carbon tax is often cited by economists as an effective instrument to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, but there is little political interest in the United States. In light of this political unpopularity, we develop and examine a net-revenue constrained carbon tax and subsidy program. The optimal revenue constrained tax and subsidy schedule based on our utility maximization model taxes energy sources with high emissions to energy price ratio, and subsidizes sources with low emissions to energy price ratios. This approach may be more palatable than a traditional carbon tax because it can change the relative price of low and high emissions energy sources while providing a mechanism to limit net tax increases and energy price increases. We find that a constrained tax/subsidy program provides welfare gains relative to a no-tax scenario. Welfare gains are estimated to be 1% and 36% of the welfare gains from a Pigouvian tax for the motor fuels industry and electric power industry, respectively. In contrast, subsidies for low-emitting energy sources funded from general tax funds rather than from high-emission energy tax revenues lead to welfare decreases substantially below our proposed tax/subsidy policy approach.