Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models

Abstract

This study sets out a backtesting framework applicable to the multiperiod-ahead forecasts from stochastic mortality models and uses it to evaluate the forecasting performance of six different stochastic mortality models applied to English & Welsh male mortality data. The models considered are the following: Lee-Carter’s 1992 one-factor model; a version of Renshaw-Haberman’s 2006 extension of the Lee-Carter model to allow for a cohort effect; the age-period-cohort model, which is a simplified version of Renshaw-Haberman; Cairns, Blake, and Dowd’s 2006 two-factor model; and two generalized versions of the last named with an added cohort effect. For the data set used herein, the results from applying this methodology suggest that the models perform adequately by most backtests and that prediction intervals that incorporate parameter uncertainty are wider than those that do not. We also find little difference between the performances of five of the models, but the remaining model shows considerable forecast instability.     

Lead Paint,Toxic Torts,and the Housing Stock: A Case Study in Risk Assessment

Numerous policymakers have accepted claims in the public health literature that the United States is in the middle of a serious epidemic of childhood lead poisoning, due primarily to lead paint in the housing stock. This article analyzes some of the most influential lead paint epidemiological studies from an economics perspective and finds evidence that the claimed effects of lead on intelligence, school success, and other outcomes may be grossly exaggerated. In addition, the main cost-benefit analysis used by policymakers to advocate lead paint abatement of the entire U.S. housing stock contains serious mathematical errors and strikingly implausible economic assumptions. A corrected model shows that the proposed national abatement policy is likely to yield no net benefit.     

Implementing a corporate environmental strategy: establishing coordination and control within multinational companies

This article presents the results of an empirical study that investigated coordination and control within multinational companies over six key aspects of their environmental strategy. Specifically, it first examines the level of centralization of these key issues. Second, it investigates whether there is a positive relation between three variables associated with organizational complexity and the level of centralization of the environmental issues. Statistical analyses of the data obtained from a sample of 98 North American multinationals were conducted. The study's results revealed that most companies have adopted a global environmental standard to govern their worldwide business activities that is supported by strong central controls over both environmental performance evaluation of facilities and decisions regarding the development of environmental programs. Results also revealed that there are limited links between organizational complexity and most aspects of the environmental strategy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

The new new financial thing: The origins of financial innovations

The origins of financial innovations have attracted little empirical scrutiny. Using Wall Street Journal articles as an indicator, this paper examines which institutions were the key financial innovators between 1990 and 2002. The evidence suggests that smaller firms account for a disproportionate share of the innovations. Less profitable firms innovate more, though in the years subsequent to the introduction of the innovation, the profitability of the innovators increases significantly. Finally, older, less leveraged firms located in regions with more financial innovations innovate more. While several of the determinants of patenting are similar, small and unprofitable firms do not patent disproportionately.     

A Preliminary Investigation into the Effects of the Federal Override of State Usury Ceilings on the Supply of Mortgage Funds by FSLIC-Insured S&Ls in New York and New Jersey

Examined is the economic theory that restrictive usury ceilings reduce the supply of residential mortgage funds and tighten terms of the mortgage instrument. Studied are the mortgage policies adopted by New York and New Jersey FSLIC-insured S&Ls during periods when there were restrictive usury ceilings and when these usury ceilings were removed. The results clearly confirm the theory that effective elimination of usury ceilings increases the supply of mortgage funds and also liberalizes the terms of the mortgage instrument.     

Tax impact in corporate social responsibility decisions and reporting

Tax effects of corporate social responsibility decisions should be incorporated into the various approaches for performing social audits or accounting for social performance. This paper identifies some special U.S. tax provisions which encourage corporate participations in social responsibilities. The Linowes' socio-economic accounting model is revised to show tax costs.     

Asset pricing with stochastic differential utility

Asset pricing theory is presented with representative-agentutility given by a stochastic differential formulation of recursiveutility. Asset returns are characterized from general first-orderconditions of the Hamilton-Bellman-Jacobi equation for optimalcontrol. Homothetic representative agent recursive utility functionsare shown to imply that excess expected rates of return on securitiesare given by a linear combination of the continuous-time market-portfolio-basedcapital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the consumption-basedCAPM. The Cox, Ingersoll and Ross characterization of the termstructure is examined with a recursive generalization, showingthe response of the term structure to variations in risk aversion.Also, a new multicommodity factor-return model, as well as anextension of the 'usual' discounted expected value formula forasset prices, is introduced.